ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Bocadude85]

0z GFDL just about the same as the 18z... into South Florida

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots

[ROCK]

RECON finding center farther south....model need to adjust some....

[RL3AO]

Guys the center has reformed a good 50+ miles south. The 0z runs are probably not worth the bandwidth they take up (the paper they're written on didn't make sense).

[meriland23]

EURO 48 hr



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[ROCK]

Guys the center has reformed a good 50+ miles south. The 0z runs are probably not worth the bandwidth they take up (the paper they're written on didn't make sense).

ok now you can lock thread for tonight.....

[wxwatcher1999]

If the center is further south would that warrant an even more westerly path?

[meriland23]

Guys the center has reformed a good 50+ miles south. The 0z runs are probably not worth the bandwidth they take up (the paper they're written on didn't make sense).

Really now, so what impact will this have on the track (if say break in rift is as significant as GFS has thought)

[Cyclenall]

I didn't say that. I just don't bet everything I have on a model that has done poorly this year. It's been my experience that ridges are overblown by the models and the strength of troughs is underplayed.

What is funny is there is a poster here that has been saying the exact opposite for years now. Which one is correct?

I haven't followed the models much for the past 30 hours but I was amazed that the Euro kept doing its thing, way westwards and well into the Gulf! This could be an epic disagreement (already is really) that could decide which model becomes King. For the Euro to show that solution 4 times in a row is huge, nothing to sneeze at. This one running is going to be quite interesting, one of the most for 2012.

[Bocadude85]

Guys the center has reformed a good 50+ miles south. The 0z runs are probably not worth the bandwidth they take up (the paper they're written on didn't make sense).

The center should move back to the northwest though so the models should not end up being to far off. Here is a excerpt from the 2am advisory

AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. SOME ERRATIC MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST COULD OCCUR LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

[Weatherfreak000]

Guys the center has reformed a good 50+ miles south. The 0z runs are probably not worth the bandwidth they take up (the paper they're written on didn't make sense).

ok now you can lock thread for tonight.....

Funny...I was shunned for dissing the models making the same point...

[USTropics]

One thing that I've noticed in past experiences with tropical systems that hasn't been mentioned yet is how weaker storms interact with land. In minimal cases, through the dynamics of friction, land interaction aided in the development of broad circulation systems by tightening up the core. Not saying this will be the case with Isaac, especially when land interaction could possibly involve mountainous terrain, but something to watch for as well.

[RL3AO]

Advisory said 15.5 Recon found the MLC at 14.7. Need a VDM to say where the center is.

[ROCK]

Guys the center has reformed a good 50+ miles south. The 0z runs are probably not worth the bandwidth they take up (the paper they're written on didn't make sense).

The center should move back to the northwest though so the models should not end up being to far off. Here is a excerpt from the 2am advisory

AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. SOME ERRATIC MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST COULD OCCUR LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

still moving to the west at 20!!! ding ding....that should sound some alarms...

[meriland23]

EURO 72 hr



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[CrazyC83]

When do models adjust for reformations, 06Z or 12Z?

[Weatherfreak000]

Notice euro has landfall much further south in Cuba, I believe that is key.

[meriland23]

EURO 120 hr



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[meriland23]

So questions.. one, why would center reform south. Two, why would it effect the path if ridge is what is key. & why is new advisory not stating a difference if this happened

[meriland23]

EURO 144



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[Weatherfreak000]

Looks a Tad east....thank you for posting EURO!