meriland23 wrote:gfs 144 hr
990 mb?
Hmm.. has trouble strengthening over extremely warm water but manages to deepen over land... IT ALL MAKES SENSE NOW!
ATL: ISAAC - Models
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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Hmm.. has trouble strengthening over extremely warm water but manages to deepen over land... IT ALL MAKES SENSE NOW!
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RIP Kobe Bryant
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meriland23
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Its got a fairly erractic track looking at the GFS 06z run and doesn't seem to like water on this run!
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meriland23
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By the 11 AM update we should know where they will relocate the center. We had been expecting a track over the high mountains of Haiti that would disrupt the core of the system. Cuba is pretty flat so any westward shift in the models would be a concern for Floridians.
Looks like the current models are tracking up close to the Florida west coast and are not showing a rapid intensification like Charley.
Looks like the current models are tracking up close to the Florida west coast and are not showing a rapid intensification like Charley.
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Looks like it'll finally emerge into the Atlantic at 168hrs...
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Kingarabian
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meriland23
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
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meriland23
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by far.. the weirdest track I have seen the gfs put out in a while.. 
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Kingarabian
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Re:
meriland23 wrote:by far.. the weirdest track I have seen the gfs put out in a while..
Lets see what the Euro gives us...
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RIP Kobe Bryant
Well I personally think the 12z run tonight will be the most important yet for this system, especially as by then they should have a better grip on the poor organisation of the lower levels.
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I would just like to point out that we don't know what the intensity will be after interaction with Haiti and Cuba.. some intensity models show a hurricane like the HWRF and others.. the globals don't always give a good idea on intensity unfortunately.. the only things that appear to be certain are that shear will be low, plenty of hot water and there will be enough time to allow for some restrengthening between Cuba and FL Straits .. still quite uncertain as to how much
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It does all depend on track, but if it takes the GFS track it really is going to have only a very small amount of time to actually strengthen, inner cores typically take a solid 6-12hrs to really get going after land interaction, so that leaves the system probably 6-12hrs more to strengthen before SW Florida...IF the GFS is right.
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KBBOCA
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Looking at graphic below with the 132 hr GFS and landfall in the Big Bend (which "never happens") I'm reminded of another "never happens" scenario - a storm landfalling in JAX from the east...
Well that happened earlier with Beryl this year, so maybe this year the Big Bend hit will happen too.
Hopefully Isaac will never resolve his internal organization issues enough to strengthen much. No one needs or wants a beast to make landfall.
Well that happened earlier with Beryl this year, so maybe this year the Big Bend hit will happen too.
Hopefully Isaac will never resolve his internal organization issues enough to strengthen much. No one needs or wants a beast to make landfall.
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Re:
JPmia wrote:Oh and tonight's models will be very important.. we will have more data on the ridge north of the storm from the G-IV missions.
I think the upstram data from the special soundings will be as important if not more to figure out how this trough is going to layout..g-4 + soundings+ a center(hopefully)=more reliable modeling friday
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Re:
JPmia wrote:Oh and tonight's models will be very important.. we will have more data on the ridge north of the storm from the G-IV missions.
Yep thats going to be very important, hopefully we have a better idea of where the center of the system actually is by then!
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