ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheBurn]

10:00z VIS/IR (Day / Night)

[ronjon]

The big slowdown will allow the storm more time over those warm waters and also time enough to get its center better organized. This morning it actually looks really good...better overall outflow and heavy convection over the center(s). This is a really huge storm too. The current track down teh middle of the cone is actually more disconcerting, as it allows the center to travers the extremely warm waters of the gulf, and could allow for much more strengthening before a final landfall further north. That would essentially rake the west coast of Florida with storm force winds, or worse. The directional heading would also pile huge amounts of water into Tampa Bay for a long time with a slow moving, very large storm. -the effect being larger with a larger system, aka Katrina's surge that seemed like it was from a stronger system. I'm not saying that this will be a Cat3/4, but the flooding could none the less be significant in Tampa as this goes by just offshore.

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Yeah TIG, I heard the stupid MET on channel 10 this morning say it was a good thing the storm stayed offshore. I suspect if Issac stays 30-50 miles offshore he may intensify even further than what NHC is projecting. I live on the coast in Hernando Beach - I think a hurricane just offshore almost the entire west cost of FL will be devastating and destructive considering the huge amount of coastal development. Intially winds will blow offshore, but when the storm moves north of your latitude, look out for a storm surge from SW winds.

[KWT]

I wonder the chances of it jogging NW in 12 hrs vs staying its western south path

Well thats what the NHC I think are banking on.

Recon seems to have found a fairly good set of wind shifts over the last few sets of obs, will have to see what happens when it makes the SE pass soon.

[sunnyday]

I had little time to storm watch yesterday, and this a.m. I see that Isaac is headed toward the west coast of Fl at this point. Would some of you please give me your educated guesses or opinions if that means the east coast of Fl is pretty much out of the woods? Do you see anything that could lead the storm there?
Thank you.

[tgenius]

I had little time to storm watch yesterday, and this a.m. I see that Isaac is headed toward the west coast of Fl at this point. Would some of you please give me your educated guesses or opinions if that means the east coast of Fl is pretty much out of the woods? Do you see anything that could lead the storm there?
Thank you.

If it goes that route Miami would be on NE quad or the "dirty" side I believe.

[KWT]

Recon really is struggling to find anything in the way of a closed circulation right now, there is several areas that are contending but its really struggling still.

[RL3AO]

Recon really is struggling to find anything in the way of a closed circulation right now, there is several areas that are contending but its really struggling still.

Well they're finding closed circs at 850 and 700mb...be it 50 miles apart. As for surface we can only use the VDMs they give us.

[ronjon]

I had little time to storm watch yesterday, and this a.m. I see that Isaac is headed toward the west coast of Fl at this point. Would some of you please give me your educated guesses or opinions if that means the east coast of Fl is pretty much out of the woods? Do you see anything that could lead the storm there?
Thank you.

If it goes that route Miami would be on NE quad or the "dirty" side I believe.

This storm ain't a tiny charley which was super intense but maybe 50 miles wide. This is a huge storm area wise. Once it gets its act together look for TS conditions over almost the entire FL peninsula with the threat of tornadoes high if it tracks along the NHC path.

[drezee]

Antigua gusting over 50 mph

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=BARA9

[northjaxpro]

I had little time to storm watch yesterday, and this a.m. I see that Isaac is headed toward the west coast of Fl at this point. Would some of you please give me your educated guesses or opinions if that means the east coast of Fl is pretty much out of the woods? Do you see anything that could lead the storm there?
Thank you.

If it goes that route Miami would be on NE quad or the "dirty" side I believe.

This storm ain't a tiny charley which was super intense but maybe 50 miles wide. This is a huge storm area wise. Once it gets its act together look for TS conditions over almost the entire FL peninsula with the threat of tornadoes high if it tracks along the NHC path.

Absolutely. Isaac is so large that the potential impacts would be substantial across the entire Florida peninsula.

[KWT]

Recon really is struggling to find anything in the way of a closed circulation right now, there is several areas that are contending but its really struggling still.

Well they're finding closed circs at 850 and 700mb...be it 50 miles apart. As for surface we can only use the VDMs they give us.

Yep, there appear to be several other weaker eddies still rotating around as well, not a well organised system thats for sure.

[Caribwxgirl]

I'm getting nervous because I was already thinking about hurricane Gilbert from the weekend and now I'm seeing similar set up even more. Right down to it going more south but being predicted to go nw to USA and then what do you know we were directly hit and not well prepared ahead of time either. I just pray this is not a repeat.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop, zoomed out to 2 since Isaac is so darn large.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Morning Visible

10:45Z

[KWT]

See on that image Tolakram, it looks quite well organised, if you'd seen that without knowing the mess its in at the lower levels, you'd think at least a middle-high end tropical storm.

[Gustywind]

Very good news here. Pretty tranquil night! The red vigilance have been canceled since yesterday night because of the cyclonics effects have spared the butterfly island. Whereas since 6AM, we have nice rain showers from the outers bands with moderate to sometimes strong gusts!

Right now, given Meteo-France we're under an orange alert for risk of strong showers and tstorms and rough sea.

Gustywind

[Gustywind]

23/0545 UTC 14.2N 64.5W T3.0/3.0 ISAAC
22/2345 UTC 15.6N 62.0W T3.0/3.0 ISAAC

[tolakram]

Good news Gusty. Hopefully it will stay weak and keep moving at a good clip to reduce the chance of flooding. Sometimes these weak storms do more flooding damage than the well organized ones.

[Caribwxgirl]

Very good news here. Pretty tranquil night! The red vigilance have been canceled since yesterday night because of the cyclonics effects have spared the butterfly island. Whereas since 6AM, we have nice rain showers from the outers bands with moderate to sometimes strong gusts!

Right now, given Meteo-France we're under an orange alert for risk of strong showers and tstorms and rough sea.

Gustywind

Great to know. All the best

[BigB0882]

So according to that position it is nearly 1.5 degrees further South than the previous point? Interesting but with so many vorts I don't know how accurate that is or if it is really moving WSW or just rotating around a vort and will soon go back N?

[pcolaman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... y/vis0.jpg