ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

Whatever is happening Aric, recon will be sure to get a good fix this time judging by the much improved look.

I suspect we'll find pressure sub 1000mbs this time round.

[wxman57]

Recon is about 550nm out now. Should be there in just under 2 hrs (around 12:30pm CDT). Isaac looks more consolidated on satellite. Getting smaller as it organizes. ENE shear may have let up.

[Dean4Storms]

The center on long range radar out of PR...... (At the Very Bottom)


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... A&loop=yes

[Frank2]

Wow - look at the current WV loop - almost has an October or November appearance with a Caribbean cyclone and that deep trough moving eastward across the Gulf - it's going to be interesting, that's for almost certain:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[Aric Dunn]

Whatever is happening Aric, recon will be sure to get a good fix this time judging by the much improved look.

I suspect we'll find pressure sub 1000mbs this time round.

yeah, all indications are that its finally consolidating and should strengthen soon

[Shuriken]

Personal forecast 'til morning: The CDO-ish feature will appear to go stationary and warm, maybe even nearly dying off -- but this is only temporary as the various coalescing centers swirl around a common rotational axis at about 15N. (All the board fan-peeps will groan as their big proto-hurricane appears to fizzle once again.) About 9am EST tomorrow, the surface and mid-level centers complete stacking, and Isaac begins an uninterrupted, and at times rapid, intensification trend.

Do you mean 9:00 am today (August 23) or literally tomorrow (August 24)? Sometimes people don't remember were on a new day once it gets late. I would take this seriously as you were spot on with the convection fading and pulsing back up at a certain time a couple days ago, it was very accurate.

(Thanks.)

Today the 23rd.

My forecast of storm behavior is verifying, but more slowly that I had predicted. (Last night's blow-up lasted longer, and the waning phase is ongoing at present; intensification will therefore not likely begin until after the diurnal minima.)

[HarryPotter]

I know the actual low pressure center hasn't exactly followed the center of circulation, but the last several sat frames to me look like some slight southerly motion. And the outflow and convection seems to be picking up on the south side based on my looking at sat images. Look near the ABC islands...

[KWT]

Recon is about 550nm out now. Should be there in just under 2 hrs (around 12:30pm CDT). Isaac looks more consolidated on satellite. Getting smaller as it organizes. ENE shear may have let up.

The biggest indicator of that is the fact that convection has wrapped around outside of that convective mass that has been with the MLC over the last 24hrs.

[Hurricaneman]

I'm wondering what implications that possible around 5 days that Joyce will possibly have on Isaac

[Hurricane Andrew]

Recon is about 550nm out now. Should be there in just under 2 hrs (around 12:30pm CDT). Isaac looks more consolidated on satellite. Getting smaller as it organizes. ENE shear may have let up.

You mind if I quote you to put in my signature coverage?

[hurricanes1234]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looking better than this morning. This is indeed the best looking 40 mph storm I have ever seen. This actually matches the looks of an 80 mph Category 1 hurricane. It is a bit surprising that Isaac is only a minimal tropical storm, despite its excellent overall appearance.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS farther west, suggesting western FL Panhandle so far (out to 123hrs).

132hrs - 29.4N/86W - heading north toward Panama City according to 12Z GFS.

[KWT]

Whatever is happening Aric, recon will be sure to get a good fix this time judging by the much improved look.

I suspect we'll find pressure sub 1000mbs this time round.

yeah, all indications are that its finally consolidating and should strengthen soon

Yep, I do wonder how much strengthening is possible before interaction with Haiti arrests strengthen (It doesn't need to make landfall on Haiti for it to have serious effects.)

[Shuriken]

12Z GFS farther west, suggesting western FL Panhandle so far (out to 123hrs).

132hrs - 29.4N/86W - heading north toward Panama City according to 12Z GFS.

What site are you going to which has them up so quickly? (It's still 06Z at all the ones on my bookmark list.)

[JPmia]

12Z GFS farther west, suggesting western FL Panhandle so far (out to 123hrs).

132hrs - 29.4N/86W - heading north toward Panama City according to 12Z GFS.

looks like a tad west of PCB.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS farther west, suggesting western FL Panhandle so far (out to 123hrs).

132hrs - 29.4N/86W - heading north toward Panama City according to 12Z GFS.

What site are you going to which has them up so quickly?

No site. I get the model feed from NCEP as soon as soon as each forecast time is issued and am plotting it using GARP.

30.1N/86.3W at 06Z Wed (1am CDT). About 20 miles south of Panama City.

Landfall 09Z Wed - Panama City (12Z GFS)

[cpdaman]

Whatever is happening Aric, recon will be sure to get a good fix this time judging by the much improved look.

I suspect we'll find pressure sub 1000mbs this time round.

yeah, all indications are that its finally consolidating and should strengthen soon

Yep, I do wonder how much strengthening is possible before interaction with Haiti arrests strengthen (It doesn't need to make landfall on Haiti for it to have serious effects.)

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zgfs.html

alan haufman wx model page (google that)

[fsusurfer]

I'm in Destin about 3 blocks from the beach.. flooding here isnt really a concern unless it's a monster, but is this one I should be worried about boarding up the windows for?

[Weatherboy1]

I would argue from the last hour or two of satellite imagery that Isaac may finally be coming together. Instead of just "blobs" of big convection, we appear to have some bands of deeper convection rotating around a center just to the north of where the old big, southern blob was located. No guarantees of course, but I wouldn't be surprised in the least if recon finds a system that is FINALLY getting vertically stacked and ready to organize.

[Hurricaneman]

There is an opening in the ridge on the 12zGFS caused by Joyce, my guess is if Isaac is 12 to 24hrs slower this could easily go 100 miles of Tampa and still hit the big bend of Florida, Joyce could also be important to the track of Isaac in 5 days

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.