Tropical Wave off the coast of Africa (Is invest 97L)

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ISAAC...LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUADELOUPE...AND
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...LOCATED ABOUT 920 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[abajan]

Yeah, I just saw it. Unbelievable activity out there! The wave train (or rather, cyclone train) is in full effect.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

The GFS and the EURO are hinting development in that area within the next few days. Interesting days ahead as we approach the peak of the hurricane season.

[HurricaneFan]

The GFS and the EURO are hinting development in that area within the next few days. Interesting days ahead as we approach the peak of the hurricane season.

But what track are they showing it will take?
Will it go out to sea or make it to the Lesser Antilles?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

The GFS and the EURO are hinting development in that area within the next few days. Interesting days ahead as we approach the peak of the hurricane season.

But what track are they showing it will take?
Will it go out to sea or make it to the Lesser Antilles?

The 18Z GFS in the long range forecast, makes it a close call for the islands, but the 12Z Euro recurves it before reaching the Caribbean.

18Z GFS



12Z Euro

[colbroe]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

NHC 72 hours Surface Forecast

[HurricaneFan]

It is actually expected to move WSW?
Is the Azores High pressure expected to build so strong to it's north?And for how long?

[Gustywind]

NHC 72 hours Surface Forecast

Given this chart, looks like this twave could have a low attaches with it at a pretty low lattitude, maybe 11 or 12N, 42, 43W approximately?!. Maybe a low rider? Something to keep an eye for any islanders of the Lesser Antilles. I wonder if it has model support, and how the conditions are in this area. Anyway, we have time to monitor it. Let's wait and see.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

It is actually expected to move WSW?
Is the Azores High pressure expected to build so strong to it's north?And for how long?

In the medium-long range (based on the GFS) it looks like the Azores high will be fairly strong; however, at it approches the Caribbean there wont be a strong high over the Caribbean, as a result the system will not mantain a complete westward motion to the Caribbean. But that is long range and as we know things can change very quickly.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The forecast posts made by me are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are considered opinion even if they are backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS.

12Z GFS 120 hours



12Z GFS 168 hours

[rainstorm]

gfs has a hurricane getting very close to fla and nc, probably kirk.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 231809
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1010 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N18W. A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N16W TO THE LOW CENTER. THE SYSTEM
IS MOVING WSW AT 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 15W-24W.

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Gustywind]

I've just noticied that... twave is moving wsw? High pressure are maybe strong to allow this direction.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 240000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE
COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W TO A 1010 MB LOW OFF THE COAST
OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N20W. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WSW AT 5-10 KT. A
THICK LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST SURROUNDS THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
LOW...INHIBITING THIS SYSTEM TO GENERATE CONVECTION. AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS WELL TO THE S FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 18W-29W.

[somethingfunny]

It's Invest 97L, 30%.