ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Vortex]

I would argue from the last hour or two of satellite imagery that Isaac may finally be coming together. Instead of just "blobs" of big convection, we appear to have some bands of deeper convection rotating around a center just to the north of where the old big, southern blob was located. No guarantees of course, but I wouldn't be surprised in the least if recon finds a system that is FINALLY getting vertically stacked and ready to organize.

Can't argue that....

[cpdaman]

I'm in Destin about 3 blocks from the beach.. flooding here isnt really a concern unless it's a monster, but is this one I should be worried about boarding up the windows for?

if the storm is large enuf in diamater and landfall to your west i think you will have a potential surge concern. i would be prepared to board up since you live so close to water and since there is a potential hurricane modeled to head in your general direction, worried no , prepared to board yes

[KWT]

I would argue from the last hour or two of satellite imagery that Isaac may finally be coming together. Instead of just "blobs" of big convection, we appear to have some bands of deeper convection rotating around a center just to the north of where the old big, southern blob was located. No guarantees of course, but I wouldn't be surprised in the least if recon finds a system that is FINALLY getting vertically stacked and ready to organize.

It sure does look that way to me at the moment, the fact it does seem to have amassed into one convective mass is a sure sign that strengthening is going on IMO. I suspect recon will find a pressure sub 1000mbs this time round.

[Shuriken]

Isaac is behaving a lot like a large "stripped hurricane" in the Bay of Campeche after it'd traveled across the Yucatan and lost its middle, but is now reforming.

[bucman1]

What effects would the storm staying 100 miles off the weast coast of FL produce
lets say for the Tampa area-Would they still receive squally weather and a tornadic threat?

[summersquall]

Close to SA. Will this impede development or is the location of the "center" over water a more key variable? Isaac appears more blobby (important meteorological term) than he did 06Z today.

[bucman1]

How large an area does this storm have the potential to cover as far as size goes?

[cpdaman]

i wonder if the models underforecast the potency of the 700mb circulation further south.

very interested to see where the real LLC establishes itself, and not just a vortex rotating around a broad center.

thinking recon will see something near 15 N / 66/66.5 by the time it gets there

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

The small ball of convection appears to be the dominant convection area and does not look like it will rotate around that big blob which looks to be dying off?

This is not an official forecast and should not be used!

[Zeno8]

[img]http://img641.imageshack.us/img641/3163/isaacmodel.jpg[
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

The small ball of convection appears to be the dominant convection area and does not look like it will rotate around that big blob which looks to be dying off?

This is not an official forecast and should not be used!

yes, for the time being that is the dominant convection, and the coc appears to be sw of it.

[Hurricaneman]

http://img641.imageshack.us/img641/3163/isaacmodel.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

The small ball of convection appears to be the dominant convection area and does not look like it will rotate around that big blob which looks to be dying off?

This is not an official forecast and should not be used!

yes, for the time being that is the dominant convection, and the coc appears to be sw of it.

If so, this thing is getting somewhat better organized

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ivanhater]

ATTENTION

When quoting a post that includes an image...remove the IMG tag within the quote. Thank you.

[Shuriken]

i wonder if the models underforecast the potency of the 700mb circulation further south.

I don't think any of them forecast a decoupled system in the first place.

(The suddenly slower rate of movement will throw the timing of trough interaction & recurvature-or-not going forward.)

[Shuriken]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

The small ball of convection appears to be the dominant convection area and does not look like it will rotate around that big blob which looks to be dying off?

This is not an official forecast and should not be used!

yes, for the time being that is the dominant convection, and the coc appears to be sw of it.

That is just a strong cell moving east-to west (not northwest) around the circulation south of it.

(I wish peeps would switch to vis-sat during the day; resolution is so much higher.)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Aric Dunn]

Does appear to have become better organized from all available data I have. recon should find a deepening system

[wxman76]

To me the CDO looks to be splitting back into cells again. It may not be weakening but I doubt it is really strengthening much. Maybe later this afternoon after diurnal maximum it will consolidate again. To be honest I'm not sure where the center really is either.

[srva80]

Hello all! I have been looming in the background for several days now just reading and watching... Im a fairly new resident to South Florida and live in southeastern Palm Beach County. Right near the beach

Given the current forcasted track and strength, what if any preperations should I think about making at this point? What type of conditions should I possibly expect?

Again given that the forcasted track doesnt change very much from today..

Thanks!!

[Aric Dunn]

recon should do the first pass within the next 30 to 45 min. will know exactly whats going on soon.

[Shuriken]

The red circle is the location of the mid-level, and dominant, circulation.

[tolakram]

(I wish peeps would switch to vis-sat during the day; resolution is so much higher.)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

True, but if you can run java I think this is the best loop:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Code: Select all

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=15&lon=-67&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=95&numframes=5

You can adjust location, zoom 1, 2, 4 and number of frames. Usually zoom 1 looks best but Isaac fills the entire frame.