WPAC: TEMBIN - Extratropical

[Meow]

this is no category 2 anymore in my amateur eye.

That is VIS. You should take a look at an IR image.



This is much better than Tembin’s previous peak intensity.

[euro6208]

wow! mighty fighter! tembin strengthened yet again!

WDPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTHEAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED A BRIEF PERIOD WHEN THE EYE WAS CLEARED BUT SINCE
THEN HAS BECOME MORE CLOUD OBSCURED. A 230006Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A NEARLY UNIFORM CONCENTRIC DEEP EYEWALL
STRUCTURE THAT IS SLIGHTLY FRAGMENTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR FIXES FROM JAPAN
AND TAIWAN, ALONG WITH THE SSMIS IMAGE, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES, RANGING FROM 77 TO 102 KNOTS FROM RJTD AND PGTW/KNES
RESPECTIVELY, DUE TO THE VIGOROUS EYEWALL STRUCTURE. TRACK SPEEDS
CONTINUE TO BE SLOW AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE, A DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH, HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY A
TRANSITING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH EXITING THE KOREAN PENINSULA. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW TOWARDS THE TROPICAL
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL THAT WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN HONSHU
HAS BEEN SHUT DOWN AS THE CELL FILLED INTO TROUGHING. CURRENTLY
THERE IS VERY WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
BUT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST. THE SELF-INDUCED MESO-
ANTICYCLONE IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE LLCC PROVIDING FOR MODERATE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE REGION REMAIN FAVORABLE (28 TO
30 CELSIUS) ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. TY 15W IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED WESTWARD BY A WEAK EXTENSION OF THE STR, AS INDICATED BY THE
35 KNOT 500 MB EASTERLIES IN THE 230000Z RADIOSONDE FROM ISHIGAKI-
JIMA (24.33N 124.16E).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 15W WILL CONTINUE TO STEER WESTWARD INTO TAIWAN VIA THE
WEAK EXTENSION OF THE STR. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DUE
TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTALS MENTIONED EARLIER. BY TAU 24
TY 15W SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL WHERE THE LLCC WILL BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND LACK OF OCEAN HEAT. HOWEVER, TY
15W IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF TAIWAN AFTER ONLY
BEING OVERLAND FOR APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLOWLY DRIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH
A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A DEEPLY
DIGGING TROUGH OVER EASTERN CHINA. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME DUE TO A POCKET OF WARM OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW OUT AHEAD
OF ANOTHER DIGGING TROUGH. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST UP TO THE LANDFALL POSITION AND INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT, BUT
BY TAU 48 FORECAST CONFIDENCE DEGRADES DUE TO THE COMPLEX TIMING OF
THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SLOW
DRIFT SOUTH AND THEN EVENTUALLY BACK EAST IN A COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP
AS THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT REMAINS WEAK. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN UNDER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONGER VWS
FROM TY 16W'S OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH
THE MUCH LARGER TY 16W IS EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD FURTHER ATTRACT THE
LLCC BACK EASTWARD ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE
TIME. OBJECTIVE AID GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE LOOPING MOTION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WBAR, EGRR, AND
GFDN. THESE THREE TRACKERS WERE DISCOUNTED DUE TO UNREALISTIC MOTION
INTO, AND BEYOND, THE TROUGHING THAT WILL DEVELOP AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND COMPLEX LOOPING
MOTION.//
NNNN

[phwxenthusiast]

yup ADT values are now at their highest than they have ever been for Tembin... i'm not sure if upwelling is gonna be an issue here but if it doesn't, JTWC's forecast of 120kt before landfall might pan out...

DOTSTAR has also made one more pass near Tembin yesterday..
http://typhoon.as.ntu.edu.tw/DOTSTAR/en/

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[mrbagyo]

this is no category 2 anymore in my amateur eye.

That is VIS. You should take a look at an IR image.



This is much better than Tembin’s previous peak intensity.

oh yeah... that tembin really look mighty, mightier than before

[phwxenthusiast]

i'm lost.. JMA has kept this at 75kt and doesn't even expect it to intensify anymore...

anyway, James is at Chenggong (from his twitter) so he should be very near landfall if Tembin continues to move due west...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[mrbagyo]

Taiwan radar now showing Tembin

[dexterlabio]

wow really?

TPPN11 PGTW 231435

A. TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN)

B. 23/1332Z

C. 22.8N

D. 122.1E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.5. PT AND MET YIELDS 6.0. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
23/0942Z 22.6N 122.8E TRMM
23/1123Z 22.7N 122.5E SSMS


HERMANN

[euro6208]

typhoon tembin at 105 knots! landfall coming over taiwan! ...to everyone in taiwan, we are praying for you!

WTPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 22.7N 122.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 122.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.7N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.5N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.2N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 21.9N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 21.4N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.3N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 21.7N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 122.0E.
TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
16W (BOLAVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WITH THE OVERALL STRUCTURE
OF THE SYSTEM REMAINING WELL ORGANIZED AND COMPACT. THE DUAL BANDING
FEATURES ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN HALVES CONTINUE TO FEED THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW TO THE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD DIRECTIONS
HAS BEEN INSTRUMENTAL IN THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. THE TRACK SPEED HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS AS TY 15W TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED JUST EAST OF HONSHU,
JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 15W WILL CONTINUE TO STEER WESTWARD INTO TAIWAN WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY UNTIL MAKING
LANDFALL, WITH A MINOR WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED DUE TO THE PASSAGE
OF THE SYSTEM OVER TAIWAN. TY 15W WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS THE STR
WEAKENS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH AND A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIMINISHED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TYPHOON TEMBIN IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD IN A TIGHT COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOPING MOTION AS THE NER
BUILDS AND THE APPROACHING TY 16W (BOLAVEN) WILL BE AT ITS CLOSEST
POINT OF APPROACH TO TY 15W CAUSING POSSIBLE INCREASED BINARY
INTERACTION. FURTHER HINDRANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL
PERSIST IN WEAKENING TY 15W THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
LOOP IN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS HOWEVER THERE IS A LARGE DISPARITY
WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK DEPICTIONS. BASED ON THIS LARGE
VARIATION IN FORECAST GUIDANCE AND THE TIMING OF THE LOOPING MOTION,
THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

landfall in the next 12 hours! mmm...130 knots? ..it looks like a exploding typhoon before landfall...

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 917.7mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.6 6.6

[Bridgeplayer]

wow really?

TPPN11 PGTW 231435

A. TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN)

B. 23/1332Z

C. 22.8N

D. 122.1E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.5. PT AND MET YIELDS 6.0. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
23/0942Z 22.6N 122.8E TRMM
23/1123Z 22.7N 122.5E SSMS


HERMANN

This is what I get.

A. 15W (TEMBIN)

B. 23/1501Z

C. 22.6N

D. 121.8E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/6.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...DT=5.5 BASED ON LG SURROUNDING GRAY SHADE WITH OW EYE
EMBEDDED BY BL. PT=5.5. MET=5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

[Meow]

Lüdao and Lanyu are now being affected by Tembin’s eyewall...

[euro6208]

wow! this microwave really shows tembin's power! and that radar image shows a very well defined eye....

[apocalypt-flyer]

Wow, that one really RAMPED UP again voer the last 12 hours.

And that loop that's being forecast just looks MEAN in terms of rainfall totals.

[tim_in_ga]

That's a crazy loop pattern the JTWC has! Southern Taiwan is in for some serious rain! And riding back up the east coast doesn't bode well for Hualien and Yilan (still recovering from the last one!).

[Meow]

Manzhou Township is now in Tembin’s eye!

[tim_in_ga]

Manzhou Township is now in Tembin’s eye!

Wow, really diving south towards Hengchun! No big mountains that far south so maybe not much weakening.

[phwxenthusiast]

the wsw wobble will mean Tembin stays over land less and could maintain much of its organization; very scary scenario especially if it makes another landfall or at least a close brush in Taiwan in 2 or 3 days...

IIRC, James stayed in Taidong so he was spared of the strongest of winds based on obs from CWB but i'm sure he still got some very interesting footage out there, too bad it hit at night though..

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[windysocks]

I'm confused about Tembin's forecasted track. Surely the Fujiwhara Effect would have it turn north-west and then north, while Bolaven turns too. Doesn't the Fujiwhara Effect make typhoons in close proximity circle each other? It appears that Tembin is turning away from Bolaven rather than towards it.

[euro6208]

tembin made landfall as a strong category 3 typhoon with winds of 110 knots! tembin isn't done with taiwan, forecast to loop and head back!

WTPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 22.1N 120.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 120.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.7N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 21.5N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 21.2N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.5N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.7N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.9N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 26.2N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 120.2E.
TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 39
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z. REFER
TO TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 232355Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW THAT THE
EYEWALL STRUCTURE HAS ONLY SLIGHTLY DEGRADED AS TY 15W SKIRTED THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF TAIWAN. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
CLUSTER OF JAPAN AND TAIWAN RADAR FIXES ALONG WITH THE PGTW AND RJTD
CENTER FIXES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS LOWERED
BY ONLY TEN KNOTS FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING, WHEN THE TY WAS MAKING
LANDFALL OVER EASTERN TAIWAN, DUE TO MERELY SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN
TIP AND LACK OF NOTICEABLE DEGRADATION IN EYEWALL STRUCTURE. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES HEALTHY EQUATORWARD EXHAUST ACCOMPANIED BY
MODEST RADIAL OUTFLOW. A MORE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE TRACK HAS
DEVELOPED, AS TY 15W TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENSION OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER THE EAST CHINA
SEA. WITH TY 16W (BOLAVEN) STILL OVER 700 NM AWAY, WHICH IS BEYOND
THE TYPICAL THRESHOLD OF DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION, ANY EFFECT TO
THAT REGARD SHOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 15W WILL CONTINUE TO STEER WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
TAIWAN STRAIT DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY. AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND
CHINA INTENSIFIES, THE STR TO THE NORTH OF TY 15W WILL WEAKEN,
THEREBY RESULTING IN QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION. BY TAU 72, THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
TY 15W. THE RESULTANT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER STEERING WILL INDUCE
A COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF TY 15W.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TYPHOON 15W IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE NER AMPLIFIES. AS TY 16W (BOLAVEN) PASSES TO
THE NORTHEAST, SOME BINARY INTERACTION IS POSSIBLE. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW BEYOND TAU 72 WOULD DEPEND ON THIS INTERACTION AND THE
INTENSITY OF THE STR THAT IS FORECAST TO REBUILD WESTWARD BEHIND TY
16W (BOLAVEN). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT (ALL
INDICATING A LOOPING TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN) WITHIN 72
HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE IS LARGE VARIATION IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
BEYOND TAU 72 DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF INTERACTION WITH TY 16W AND
THE VARIATION IN STR ORIENTATION. AS SUCH, THERE REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[HurricaneBill]

Hopefully, Tembin won't be like Typhoon Wayne in 1986.