ATL: ISAAC - Models

[PTPatrick]

Yeah CMC seems to hold more ridging that keeps it moving NW through to west central alabama, but it gets there by way of a slighlty more eastern track in the shorter term. obviously models are starting to want to build some blocking force in. GFS shows it hitting a wall at the coast and slowly drifting east, CMC shows it pushing into west central alambama, and euro shows a gulfport, MS hit...so it seems that globals are moving away from the idea of anything shunting this northeast. Thats telling. I think Destin seems to be a good spot at this point as well, but I think it could just as easily be Mobile, of Gulfport...still so much time. Anybody NOLA to the FL should be ready

[Aric Dunn]

hwrf appears to be to the right more this run. probably a east florida hit again.

[Stormlover2012]

southeast la is not out of the woods my friend to the person who think thats

[Zeno8]

southeast la is not out of the woods my friend to the person who think thats

and neither is se fla

[stormgeek]

Looks fairly good that SE Fla is out of the woods once again......It has been a long time since metro (downtown) Miami, Fort Lauderdale, W. Palm have taken a direct hit from the Atlantic side... Andrew caused tremendous destruction in 92' but it was south of the metro areas....it could have been even worse .....With all the build up over the years I can't imagine a cat 3,4 or 5 of the Atlantic in the major metro areas now....SE Fla has been fortunate

Not sure why you think that - this board is all over the place. Yesterday was the gulf coast and today is the panhandle. Tomorrow will probably be the Carolinas. My opinion is it needs to go through south florida and the keys first!

[Weatherboy1]

Well, South FL is certainly not out of the woods. But I am definitely breathing a bit easier today than yesterday. Models have trended more south and west, which suggests we may have more of a Georges (1998) style track. In Palm Beach County, that means some wind and rain but not a direct hit. That COULD change, especially with the ingestion of the NOAA plane data into the overnight models. But again, more relaxed now than earlier this week.

[Jevo]

12z HWRF +72

[adam0983]

Until the storm passes your latitude never let your guard up.

[ndale]

southeast la is not out of the woods my friend to the person who think thats

I think EVERYONE along the gulf coast needs to be vigilant in watching this storm, I think it will probably make landfall somewhere around the Florida panhandle but with this many days left before landfall who knows how the steering currents will change and where it will go.

[Jevo]

12z HWRF +84

[Aric Dunn]

yeah hwrf a little to the right and stronger heading towards SE florida

[stormgeek]

southeast la is not out of the woods my friend to the person who think thats

I think EVERYONE along the gulf coast needs to be vigilant in watching this storm, I think it will probably make landfall somewhere around the Florida panhandle but with this many days left before landfall who knows how the steering currents will change and where it will go.

Exactly! A wobble could send this storm directly into the mainland south florida peninsula and everyone here knows a storm coming from the south would not be good for the east coast (miami, lauderdale, etc)

[cpdaman]

not sure how the 72 hr HRWF has it at that strength...unless it's just not good with land interaction and intensity

[adam0983]

How reliable is the HWRF Model? It shows a powerful Hurricane hitting the east coast of Florida.

[Bocadude85]

Well, South FL is certainly not out of the woods. But I am definitely breathing a bit easier today than yesterday. Models have trended more south and west, which suggests we may have more of a Georges (1998) style track. In Palm Beach County, that means some wind and rain but not a direct hit. That COULD change, especially with the ingestion of the NOAA plane data into the overnight models. But again, more relaxed now than earlier this week.

Im not sure we will even have much in the way of wind.. probably just a few squalls.. im not 100% certain that Palm Beach County will even be under a TS warning.. of course this is all just my opinion and I am wrong a lot of times

[StarmanHDB]

I don't see why anyone living in SE Florida would think for one second that we are out of the woods. If you remember last year's model ensembles for Hurricane Irene were for quite a while centered on the spine of Florida with the NHC track cutting right through Broward County prior to the storm actually shifting east over the Bahamas on its way to the Outer Banks and NYC.

While I love following the discussion on the models, please take to heart that these are only computer models which rely on real time data and are therefore subject to change. Heck, there isn't even ONE clearly established LLC in TS Isaac! The lesson is, never, ever let your guard up!

[Jevo]

12z HWRF +90

[HurricaneFrances04]

GFDL, CMC, and HWRF still show a SE Florida landfall. I'd say we are no where close to being out of the woods yet. Even if the western solutions verify, it will put us on the "dirty" side of the storm.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Jevo]

12z HWRF +96

[Aric Dunn]

yeah definitely to the right this run. and stronger. that was about 975 at landfall so upper cat 2