ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Portastorm]

Hello all! I have been looming in the background for several days now just reading and watching... Im a fairly new resident to South Florida and live in southeastern Palm Beach County. Right near the beach

Given the current forcasted track and strength, what if any preperations should I think about making at this point? What type of conditions should I possibly expect?

Again given that the forcasted track doesnt change very much from today..

Thanks!!

Two things ... one, welcome to Storm2K! We are glad you're here.

Second, listen to your local authorities and National Weather Service for potential impacts from Isaac. What you'll see on this forum is a lot of amateurs speculating. We have some professional meteorologists who opine as well. We also have a lot of Florida members who perhaps can give you a few clues about "local" impacts in your area. But again, please don't use this forum to be making life and death or property decisions.

[Aric Dunn]

The red circle is the location of the mid-level, and dominant, circulation.

[img]http://img829.imageshack.us/img829/6458/nonamebo.png[/ig]

Yeah I was just about to post the below image. that should be at least the more defined vort.

[srva80]

Hello all! I have been looming in the background for several days now just reading and watching... Im a fairly new resident to South Florida and live in southeastern Palm Beach County. Right near the beach

Given the current forcasted track and strength, what if any preperations should I think about making at this point? What type of conditions should I possibly expect?

Again given that the forcasted track doesnt change very much from today..

Thanks!!

Two things ... one, welcome to Storm2K! We are glad you're here.

Second, listen to your local authorities and National Weather Service for potential impacts from Isaac. What you'll see on this forum is a lot of amateurs speculating. We have some professional meteorologists who opine as well. We also have a lot of Florida members who perhaps can give you a few clues about "local" impacts in your area. But again, please don't use this forum to be making life and death or property decisions.

Thank you.. Any SoFl members that have any imput on what their preperations are would be great

[Aric Dunn]

however the buoy just the west of the circle is reprting a se wind and the wind speed has dropped off. maybe another vort passed by it.

[Epsilon_Fan]

To me the CDO looks to be splitting back into cells again. It may not be weakening but I doubt it is really strengthening much. Maybe later this afternoon after diurnal maximum it will consolidate again. To be honest I'm not sure where the center really is either.

They mention dry air getting into the storm, but with the obvious huge circulation and the good upper level conditions, why is this thing having such a hard time getting a low level circulation? It seems like ideal conditions with plenty of convergence and thuderstorms blowing up all around, but this thing doesn't seem capable of spinning down to the surface. We saw Helene spin up in a minimal amount of time and water, but this thing seems incapable of getting organized.

[Shuriken]

(I wish peeps would switch to vis-sat during the day; resolution is so much higher.)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

True, but if you can run java I think this is the best loop:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Code: Select all

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=15&lon=-67&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=95&numframes=5

You can adjust location, zoom 1, 2, 4 and number of frames. Usually zoom 1 looks best but Isaac fills the entire frame.

Isaac has finally trundled into the faster-updating east-conus imagery: http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Loop twenty images at 100-percent quality.

[SunnyThoughts]

Hello all! I have been looming in the background for several days now just reading and watching... Im a fairly new resident to South Florida and live in southeastern Palm Beach County. Right near the beach

Given the current forcasted track and strength, what if any preperations should I think about making at this point? What type of conditions should I possibly expect?

Again given that the forcasted track doesnt change very much from today..

Thanks!!

Two things ... one, welcome to Storm2K! We are glad you're here.

Second, listen to your local authorities and National Weather Service for potential impacts from Isaac. What you'll see on this forum is a lot of amateurs speculating. We have some professional meteorologists who opine as well. We also have a lot of Florida members who perhaps can give you a few clues about "local" impacts in your area. But again, please don't use this forum to be making life and death or property decisions.

Thank you.. Any SoFl members that have any imput on what their preperations are would be great

I'm in North Florida..but as preparations go. Make sure you have enough supplies to last a week or so just in case you lose power (batteries, flashlights, portable radios, etc.) non perishable foods that you don't have to cook...plywood and such to board up windows ( if the winds look to be high enough) plenty of WATER stored, in any containers you can find/or bottled from the store. Just prepare for the worst, and you won't be sorry even if the conditions don't warrant those preparations in the end.

[fci]

There is an opening in the ridge on the 12zGFS caused by Joyce, my guess is if Isaac is 12 to 24hrs slower this could easily go 100 miles of Tampa and still hit the big bend of Florida, Joyce could also be important to the track of Isaac in 5 days

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't think that Joyce will have any noticeable effect on Isaac, I see it the other way around since Joyce is tailing behind Isaac.
Besides at the point that Isaac would be in the NE Gulf, Joyce will be way out in the Central Atlantic studying fish....

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts are just my opinion and are most likely not backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!

[chrisjslucia]

Hello all! I have been looming in the background for several days now just reading and watching... Im a fairly new resident to South Florida and live in southeastern Palm Beach County. Right near the beach

Given the current forcasted track and strength, what if any preperations should I think about making at this point? What type of conditions should I possibly expect?

Again given that the forcasted track doesnt change very much from today..

Thanks!!

What you might find helpful, once the authorities in your area have advised on any threats, is the Hurricane Prep section of this site.
This is the link:
viewforum.php?f=30

Good luck!

[KBBOCA]

Hello all! I have been looming in the background for several days now just reading and watching... Im a fairly new resident to South Florida and live in southeastern Palm Beach County. Right near the beach

Given the current forcasted track and strength, what if any preperations should I think about making at this point? What type of conditions should I possibly expect?

Again given that the forcasted track doesnt change very much from today..

Thanks!!

Welcome to Storm 2K srva80. It's a great place to learn about storms and also a fantastic source of info on resources.

I'm an amateur here, formerly a resident of SE FL (Boca Raton), long-time board reader, so I can share a bit of info both from reading and experience.

If the storm tracks up the west coast of FL as forecast, given its size it could still affect SE FL. Particularly there could be some tornadoes or heavy flooding and downed trees, so at a minimum you should prepare for the possibility of being without power for a few days. (Have batteries or some kind of back up power / lighting source. Make ice. Think about how you might cook (gas grill?) or have ready-to-eat foods handy. Get cash. Get gas.)

Browse through some of the preparing for a hurricane ideas and resources here:
viewforum.php?f=30
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=109232

Make sure you know your flood zone / evacuation zone. You can find out at the Florida Emergency Management site:
http://floridadisaster.org/publicmapping/index.htm

Talk to neighbors in your area who've lived there through a number of storms, find out what they may have experienced in similar situations.

Keep in mind Isaac's size. This morning Trinidad, well over 400 miles away from the storm's center, and not under any watches or warnings, got hammered by heavy rains and flooding due to some very heavy rain bands from Isaac. If Isaac is still a very large storm and within even 100 miles of FL's west coast, the east coast could still be very well within his range of impact!

ABOVE ALL, as always, pay close attention to local emergency officials and the NHC. I'm an amateur, but I hope this helps!

[tolakram]

(I wish peeps would switch to vis-sat during the day; resolution is so much higher.)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

True, but if you can run java I think this is the best loop:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Code: Select all

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=15&lon=-67&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=95&numframes=5

You can adjust location, zoom 1, 2, 4 and number of frames. Usually zoom 1 looks best but Isaac fills the entire frame.

Isaac has finally trundled into the faster-updating east-conus imagery: http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Loop twenty images at 100-percent quality.

That would be this link http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Code: Select all

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-67&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&numframes=5

But not far enough north for my taste. I'm waiting impatiently for it to move more north.

[srva80]

Hello all! I have been looming in the background for several days now just reading and watching... Im a fairly new resident to South Florida and live in southeastern Palm Beach County. Right near the beach

Given the current forcasted track and strength, what if any preperations should I think about making at this point? What type of conditions should I possibly expect?

Again given that the forcasted track doesnt change very much from today..

Thanks!!

Welcome to Storm 2K srva80. It's a great place to learn about storms and also a fantastic source of info on resources.

I'm an amateur here, formerly a resident of SE FL (Boca Raton), long-time board reader, so I can share a bit of info both from reading and experience.

If the storm tracks up the west coast of FL as forecast, given its size it could still affect SE FL. Particularly there could be some tornadoes or heavy flooding and downed trees, so at a minimum you should prepare for the possibility of being without power for a few days. (Have batteries or some kind of back up power / lighting source. Make ice. Think about how you might cook (gas grill?) or have ready-to-eat foods handy. Get cash. Get gas.)

Browse through some of the preparing for a hurricane ideas and resources here:
viewforum.php?f=30
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=109232

Make sure you know your flood zone / evacuation zone. You can find out at the Florida Emergency Management site:
http://floridadisaster.org/publicmapping/index.htm

Talk to neighbors in your area who've lived there through a number of storms, find out what they may have experienced in similar situations.

Keep in mind Isaac's size. This morning Trinidad, well over 400 miles away from the storm's center, and not under any watches or warnings, got hammered by heavy rains and flooding due to some very heavy rain bands from Isaac. If Isaac is still a very large storm and within even 100 miles of FL's west coast, the east coast could still be very well within his range of impact!

ABOVE ALL, as always, pay close attention to local emergency officials and the NHC. I'm an amateur, but I hope this helps!

Ok Thanks!! Im on Boca too

[fci]

Hello all! I have been looming in the background for several days now just reading and watching... Im a fairly new resident to South Florida and live in southeastern Palm Beach County. Right near the beach

Given the current forcasted track and strength, what if any preperations should I think about making at this point? What type of conditions should I possibly expect?

Again given that the forcasted track doesnt change very much from today..

Thanks!!

Two things ... one, welcome to Storm2K! We are glad you're here.

Second, listen to your local authorities and National Weather Service for potential impacts from Isaac. What you'll see on this forum is a lot of amateurs speculating. We have some professional meteorologists who opine as well. We also have a lot of Florida members who perhaps can give you a few clues about "local" impacts in your area. But again, please don't use this forum to be making life and death or property decisions.

Thank you.. Any SoFl members that have any imput on what their preperations are would be great

I also live in Palm Beach County about 7 miles west of I-95 near the turnpike.
At this point, I would only do the things that should be done in anticipation of the Hurricane Season itself.
Have flashlights and fresh batteries, propane for the grill, typical canned goods, non-electric can opener, radio....... If you can afford a generator, it is a good thing to have.\
Use S2K to keep up with thoughts on what "might" happen, relying on Pro Mets posts in particular.
Always read the Discussions on advisories as they can give you the official view on what the NHC thinks will happen as opposed to here where a lot of us will tell you what "we" think will happen which can be based on not much. You'll find that many conveniently forecast storms to come in the direction of where they live....
Never use S2K to make hard and fast decisions however it is a great resource to get a feel for what might happen and to learn why.
Since you live near the beach you should find out if you are in an evacuation zone.
As far as for Isaac, I would not make any specific preparations unless a Watch goes up or is imminent.
I've lived down here for many years so if you ever have any specific questions, you can always PM me.
fci

[Dean4Storms]

The red circle is the location of the mid-level, and dominant, circulation.

[img]http://img829.imageshack.us/img829/6458/nonamebo.png[/ig]

Yeah I was just about to post the below image. that should be at least the more defined vort.

I agree, you can clearly see that cloud area here in Radar with a very defined circulation..

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... A&loop=yes

[adam0983]

I would not pay any attention to any model right now. This storm is going to go thru the islands. If the center reforms all bets are off where it goes. The GFDL Model, The HWRF Model show Isaac making landfall on the east coast of Florida and then going to the panhandle. The angle of approach will be important. Once Isaav gets to Hati and cuba we should have a better handle on where he is going.

[Aric Dunn]

so far so good from recon wind field is ok on the north side. first pass in next 20 min

[Dean4Storms]

He's organizing.......

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... m8vis.html

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like recon was NE of the center based on obs

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[alienstorm]

All indications are that Isaac center (dominent) is at 15.4 N 67 W moving WNW at 13 mph. This will also in all likelihood keep it offshore of Hispaniola and enter Cba near the South Central coast west of the Sierra Maestras. If this is the case than we are looking at a whole different picture for the Florida straits, Key and Southern Fla and SE Gulf.

[fci]

I would not pay any attention to any model right now. This storm is going to go thru the islands. If the center reforms all bets are off where it goes. The GFDL Model, The HWRF Model show Isaac making landfall on the east coast of Florida and then going to the panhandle. The angle of approach will be important. Once Isaav gets to Hati and cuba we should have a better handle on where he is going.

I don't think that they show Isaac actually making land fall on the East coast, more like through The Keys and maybe the SW Tip of the Peninsula.
Still would be a gusty, squally period for the east coast area but not a landfall.
At least that's what I am seeing.