ATL: ISAAC - Models

[CalmBeforeStorm]

not sure how the 72 hr HRWF has it at that strength...unless it's just not good with land interaction and intensity

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html
If you watch the center in this loop it stays over land for very short periods of time while it sort of dances in between Haiti and Cuba.

[SouthFLTropics]

I've said it before and I'll say it again...Everything hinges on how Isaac handles the trek through Haiti and Cuba. Any disruption to the center could lead to a center relocation and reformation. If it gets disrupted and reforms on the Northern coast of Haiti or Northeast coast of Cuba sooner than the models are showing then all bets are off and I think SE FLA is open for a potential direct hit. Until it clears the islands I'm not putting much stock in any model run one way or another.

SFT

[Snowmarathon]

GFDL, CMC, and HWRF still show a SE Florida landfall. I'd say we are no where close to being out of the woods yet. Even if the western solutions verify, it will put us on the "dirty" side of the storm.

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If you read my post I said it looks fairly good....I was making the point that it has been a long time since SE Fla metro areas have taken a direct hit from the Atlantic side.... Yes, Wilma came up from the SW coast and was a Cat 1 borerline 2.....But trust me that will look like Disney World compared to a Cat 3-5 coming into the major metro areas directly from the Atlantic.....It has been years since that has happened

[bucman1]

the cmc has now come more left in line with gfs and all the others.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Looks like The CMC is hugging the west coast on that run!

[adam0983]

I agree I depends on the angle of approach.

[Jevo]

12z HWRF +108 Exiting the state @ Tampa

[Jevo]

12z HWRF +126

[ROCK]

ah the EURO....I feel so much better now...

[SouthFLTropics]

That's not the 12z Euro Jevo...It's too early and it says 0z at the top of the pic you posted.

SFT

[Jevo]

heh sorry about that.. replaced it with the +126 HWRF

I now give you

12z ECMWF (Euro) Initialized

[tolakram]

Init is too far north east IMO. Not horrible since it shows a blob. we'll see.

[Jevo]

12z HWRF Full Loop

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFDL up for 12Z yet? At work..Cant get there..

[SouthFLTropics]

Still seems early for the Euro...Doesn't it normally not run until 2:30 or so???

SFT

[bucman1]

12z HWRF +126

How reliable a model is the HWRF as far as performance goes? If some models don't perform well why do they still use them?

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFDL up for 12Z yet? At work..Cant get there..

See it now..swung Way west with the GFS and 00z Euro PCB area..

[Jevo]

12z ECMWF (Euro) +24

[Jevo]

12z HWRF +126

How reliable a model is the HWRF as far as performance goes? If some models don't perform well why do they still use them?

The HWRF is fairly new and it has been mentioned numerous times in forecast discussions in recent years. Here is more information regarding the model itself

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_ ... ting_model

[KWT]

Well despite the HWRF hitting the SE of Florida, it still manages to make it into the E.GoM on this run...

ECM on its way out, 24hrs shows it south of DR.

[SunnyThoughts]

Gulfstream-4 plane now in the air. SO looking forward to the info gathered being ingested by the models. Hopefully 0Z models tonight will include that information.