Tropical update and updated info on Bermuda

[WXBUFFJIM]

It's a busy time in the tropics as 99.9% of you might already realize. Fabian continues to race towards Bermuda with increasing winds, waves, and heavy rains. Devastating winds are likely later today across Bermuda. This would be the first significant hurricane to directly hit Bermuda since Emily in 1987. In Emily, Bermuda was out of power for several weeks!!! Meanwhile the situation in Florida is looking pretty bad as far as heavy rains are concerned courtesy of Tropical Storm Henri. There is also a wave organizing southwest of the Cape Verde Islands today.

First is Tropical Storm Henri, which developed early this morning over the northeast Gulf Of Mexico. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the west Florida coast from Englewood northward to the Aucilla River. A tropical storm warning means that the tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours or less. Henri as of 11 AM was centered at latitude 28.3 north, longitude 83.9 west or about 80 miles southwest of Cedar Key, Florida. Henri is moving towards the east northeast at 8 mph and a turn towards the northeast is expected later today. On this track, the center is expected to make landfall near the Big Bend area of Florida's west coast later this evening and move onshore overnight.

Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph with higher gusts. Henri should not strengthen significantly prior to landfall. As a result, wind and storm surge won't be issue, it will be heavy flooding rains unindating already saturated grounds.

Tropical storm force winds with Henri extend outward 45 miles from the center. Minimum central rpessure is 997 mb or 29.44 inches.

Rainfall accumulation of 6-12 inches with isolatd higher amounts can be expected with Henri over Florida. Due to saturated grounds and high rivers ongoing, these heavy rains will only aggreviate the flooding already in progress for the Florida pennisula. Thus significant flooding is expected, particularly in west central Florida. Coastal storm surge flooding of 2-4 feet above normal tide levels are also expected from Henri near or to the south of where the center makes landfall. Isolated tornadoes are also a possibility latr today in heavier squalls over north central Florida. The big story once again from Henri is not surge or wind, but fresh water flooding from very heavy rains. If this system moves slower than currently progged, the 6-12 inch total could easily double. We need to watch this carefully!!!!

Hurricane Fabian is a whole different animal. Rain is not the biggest threat, but devastating winds and storm surge for Bermuda. A hurricane warning remains in effect for Bermuda even as we speak. A hurricane warning means that the hurricane conditions are expected within 24 hours or less. At 11 PM EDT, the center of dangerous Hurricane Fabian was located near latitude 30.8 north, longitude 65.4 west or about 110 miles south southeast of Bermuda. Fabian is moving towards the noth at near 17 mph. On this track, the inner core of dangerous Hurricane Fabian will be passing near or over Bermuda later today with destructive winds and storm surge flooding.

Maximum sustained winds are 120 mph with higher gusts. This makes Fabian a dangerous category 3 hurricane on the saffir simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected for the next 24 hours followed by weakening to an extratropical entity beyond that time as Fabian moves towards the colder waters of the north Atlantic. Hurricane force winds extend outward 115 miles from the center while the tropical storm force winds extends outward 230 miles. This is a large hurricane and tropical storm force winds have already been felt in Bermuda this morning. Over the past few hours, a wind gust to 61 mph occurred in Bermuda. Ham radio operator reports indicate there are rough seas and tree branches already downed on the road. Hurricane conditions have already occurred recently over Bermuda where a 100 mph gust was reported. The weather service in Bermuda also indicated an 86 mph sustain wind over Bermuda.

Minimum central pressure is 951 mb or 28.08 inches. Rainfall accumulation of 5-10 inches is expected over Bermuda. Coastal storm surge flooding og 6-12 feet is likely. Waves will be 20-30 feet beyond the breakers near Bermuda. Large swells with waves of 8-15 feet will affect the east coast today through Sunday. Dangerous rip currents are likely as well. If you ever get into a rip current in the water, remember to swim parallel to the beach and not towards shore. Only swim toward the beach after you get away from the rip current. Best thing to do is not get in the ocean at al this weekend along the eastern seaboard due to the dangerous surf and rip current conditions.

Meanwhile if Henri and Fabian weren't enough, there is a developin tropical low south southwest of the Cape Verde islands, which will likely develop into a tropical depression later today or tonight and could be the next named storm in a few days. It's still 5-6 days away from the lesser antillies.

More updates later. A busy day today in the tropics. Good afternoon.

Jim

[JCT777]

Great update, Jim. Looks like Bermuda will soon get the worst that Fabian has. Henri's flooding rains could get quite serious. And then of course there is the wave southwest of CV that has potential, although some have stated this is likely a fish storm.