ATL: ISAAC - Models

[artist]

I think I can see what the EURO and GFS are doing. Its in that 2-3 day time frame....Look on the euro how there is almost a closed isobar over Eastern Cuba and one near Jamaica. I think the EURO is making more of that cir., down near Jamaica instead of keeping with that other cir over E Cuba....

seems that would make sense.

[deltadog03]

I don't like what the EURO does with Isaac after landfall...that is so weird to see a TC moving like that after landfall. I know it CAN happen, but I am still thinking the EURO is out to lunch WAAAY out there. My **GUESS** is that NHC will not do much with the track at 5pm...

[KBBOCA]

Yes i wouldnt be suprised if the euro did this just to make sure everyone is paying attention from mexico to florida. i called the galveston to new orleans landfall a while back but this shows you that this far out still early in the ball game

LOL. I was thinking something similar. I was going to make the joke that the S2K mods had paid the Euro operators to throw TX and LA into play to translate into more page views!

This is a pretty wild run. But it's one run. We need to see another 2 - 3, especially after the Gulf jet data is entered. Right now too much is up in the air (no pun intended!)

My joke is not meant to downplay the seriousness of the storm or to in anyway disrespect S2K. Just thought that some who are anxious about the storm might enjoy a chuckle!

[Kingarabian]

I don't like what the EURO does with Isaac after landfall...that is so weird to see a TC moving like that after landfall. I know it CAN happen, but I am still thinking the EURO is out to lunch WAAAY out there. My **GUESS** is that NHC will not do much with the track at 5pm...

You shoulda saw what the GFS did @ 06z with Isaac.

[adam0983]

What is going on now Texas is in Play. The Euro model has lost credibility and need to be disregarded at this time.

[SunnyThoughts]

some of this has got to do with that death ridge that has been baking the plains....and that the short wave is flatter than before...but I will let a MET here explain.....you get the Georgia high building in, providing the steering, it could very well get this far west.

Of course we dont really have a center, we dont know what land is going to do to it and we have no idea what day it is because some of us have been up for the EURO until 3am for 3 days straight.....

ahaha (raises hand) Yeah we've been up for days (and nights) and still don't know anything more than we knew 3 days ago. Maddening...but thats mother nature for ya. Just shows that EVERYBODY needs to be on guard across the entire GOM

[meriland23]

My mom was watching fox news and when they started talking about Isaac she was like "pff, what a dud, don't know why they are even paying attention to this, they said it right there.. only a category 1" I was like "there is a big toss up, could be a cat 3" she was like " yeah, right.. you know everything Sarah.. these are professionals, not you" LMFAO

Yeah I think Fox news get's their information from the NHC who are not showing major intensification right now.

Wonder why, well I guess cause it is a safe guess given how it could or could not interact with them mountains. Don't like how my family is stubborn and so hell bent on one solution vs the reality that it is up in the air. It causes me to wonder how many other families in danger would say the same thing, and even if the strength was predicted to be stronger later on, would still revert back to "oh well.. it said a cat 1 yesterday.." and ignore it.

[Hurricane Alexis]

What is going on now Texas is in Play. The Euro model has lost credibility and need to be disregarded at this time.

You're absolutely wrong. The euro is forecasting a stronger ridge that's why it's forecasting a landfall in texas/louisiana and the models will have the date ingested from the gulfstream tonight so it might change.

[cycloneye]

The 00z package will be very important as the data from the G-IV jet will be incorporated.

[Jevo]

12z Operational HWRF Full Data Run

[bucman1]

Hey guys,hope you are all well. today is my first day back on the best site i have ever
used. Question if I may: There has been lots of talk about center reformation, what should we look for and is there any particular pattern that would cause reformation to the north, south east or west?

Craig

[meriland23]

What is going on now Texas is in Play. The Euro model has lost credibility and need to be disregarded at this time.

Yeaaah I wouldn't be telling people to disregard anything. Not shmart. It is a complex play of things, anything can happen, and euro is the most reputable historically.. so jus tkeep it in mind, but don't disregard the possibility..

[SouthFLTropics]

My mom was watching fox news and when they started talking about Isaac she was like "pff, what a dud, don't know why they are even paying attention to this, they said it right there.. only a category 1" I was like "there is a big toss up, could be a cat 3" she was like " yeah, right.. you know everything Sarah.. these are professionals, not you" LMFAO

Yeah I think Fox news get's their information from the NHC who are not showing major intensification right now.

Wonder why, well I guess cause it is a safe guess given how it could or could not interact with them mountains. Don't like how my family is stubborn and so hell bent on one solution vs the reality that it is up in the air. It causes me to wonder how many other families in danger would say the same thing, and even if the strength was predicted to be stronger later on, would still revert back to "oh well.. it said a cat 1 yesterday.." and ignore it.

Well she is somewhat correct meriland...You are not a professional, You're only a CATEGORY 1...J/K

SFT

[Wthrman13]

What is going on now Texas is in Play. The Euro model has lost credibility and need to be disregarded at this time.

Nonsense. It's a viable solution. Remember, we are talking the 5-7 day time frame here, and subtle changes in the forecast ridge strength can have large effects on the eventual track. I'm not surprised in the slightest to see this shift, nor would I have been overly surprised to see it shift east. It certainly doesn't mean the model has lost credibility and should be disregarded.

As stated before, the ECMWF and GFS are both good models and *neither* should be discounted unless there are very good reasons to do so. Again, that is not the case here: both solutions are meteorologically possible.

[Stormlover2012]

guys euro does really good in the upper level with patterns and etc,I m ean this thing has to make it across cuba it looks like but the thing is that this system hasnt got any better organize in 2 days and also hasnt had a center in in 24 hrs, alot can happen

[ROCK]

I don't like what the EURO does with Isaac after landfall...that is so weird to see a TC moving like that after landfall. I know it CAN happen, but I am still thinking the EURO is out to lunch WAAAY out there. My **GUESS** is that NHC will not do much with the track at 5pm...

Blashemy the EURO out to lunch the EURO has been reeling in all the models left for a few days now.

[meriland23]

Well she is somewhat correct meriland...You are not a professional, You're only a CATEGORY 1...J/K

SFT

Cat 1 is generous haha. Given my constant questioning and lack of experience, I would place myself as a wave.. with about 10% chance of formation LMFAO!

[KWT]

Jevo, those models seems to be very slowly shifting into the E.Gulf now, we seem to be moving away from that sharper NNW/N curve and more towards a steady NW motion, or in the ECM's case, straight WNW the whole way!

[ROCK]

the EURO ensembles later will be VERY interesting!!

[Air Force Met]

What is going on now Texas is in Play. The Euro model has lost credibility and need to be disregarded at this time.

If you are going to make a forecast...put a disclaimer on your post...or I will delete them. And if you are going to make said forecast...explain WHY it's wrong...rather than just throwing out your opinions.