ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank2]

This link just posted by NOAA on Twitter:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... /wind.html

P.S. If it continues as a minimal TS my guess is that it will continue westward - just a guess...

Frank

[Ikester]

If it's still disorganized by 5pm does anyone think that the NHC will adjust the track left?

Any track adjustments have likely been made by this point for the 5pm advisory. It takes time to put together the advisories. They aren't thrown together 20 min. before the update is due.

[PTrackerLA]

I can't believe I'm going to type this and I'm not a very superstitious person but I've had "that gut feeling" for a few days now. These trends are definitely starting to get me concerned. I guess all we can do now is to keep waiting and watching.

[Weatherboy1]

I have to admit, Isaac has been a real underachiever vs. my expectations. Sure he has had some obstacles to overcome, but any self-respecting tropical system should have been able to make the most of it and beaten those back. I was expecting this to be a hurricane by now. What a mess this thing has turned out to be! LOL

[Steve H.]

Wonder if he's gonna stick with his guns and fall on his sword if need be? I heard he was saying EC Florida hit then ride up the east coast.

[ConvergenceZone]

Gustav went from a tropical storm to a cat-4 hurricane in an eighteen hour period after hitting Haiti.
Frederic went from a tropical storm to a cat-4 hurricane after exiting Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico.
Cat-5 Hurricane Gilbert was still a tropical storm while in Isaac's current location.

Apples and oranges. You are talking about 2 named storms that had MUCH MUCH better conditions than Isaac has for development. So you don't want to do those comparisons.

[wxman57]

a heads up for anyone interested. JB will be on the radio on hannity's show in about 5 minutes to discuss, isaac, joyce and the future kirk.

He's a good meteorologist, but he definitely has an east coast bias for tracks. He can't believe Isaac will still track east of Florida.

[Frank2]

This is a good example of the problems with intensity forecasting - we can't predict everything (thankfully)...

[tolakram]

Saved loop

[tolakram]

The big picture

[rainstorm]

well, JB is saying if isaac takes a track close to NO it can be a cat4/5

[Shuriken]

I have to admit, Isaac has been a real underachiever vs. my expectations. Sure he has had some obstacles to overcome, but any self-respecting tropical system should have been able to make the most of it and beaten those back. I was expecting this to be a hurricane by now. What a mess this thing has turned out to be! LOL

Similar-sized Gilbert took forever to get his act together in the Eastern Caribbean. He was a dumbbelling oblong mess. (He went on to strike Jamaica as a cat-2, then exploded to cat-5 before hitting the Yucatan.)

[KWT]

Apples and oranges. You are talking about 2 named storms that had MUCH MUCH better conditions than Isaac has for development. So you don't want to do those comparisons.

I think after all these years we'd have gotten past ruling out systems. This looks better than Ernesto did at this stage.

I'd love to know what is stopping the low level circulation from establishing itself, its something I've not seen very often, at least to this extent!

[Hurricane Andrew]

Saved loop

http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/5836/zzvisanimatedi.gif]

Could be an illusion, but looks like it's rotating WSW.

[Stormcenter]

It sure does but I'm sure it's just a wobble. IMO

Saved loop

http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/5836/zzvisanimatedi.gif]

Could be an illusion, but looks like it's rotating WSW.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

If a storm isn't already organized when it hits the eastern Caribbean it doesn't have a chance until maybe 75w. Still the dead zone there.

[FutureEM]

This lack of intensity in the Caribbean has been a theme for years now, it seems many storms have entered and few have significantly strengthened especially in the E. Carribean. Tomas and Omar being the exceptions since 2007.

[meriland23]

I have to admit, Isaac has been a real underachiever vs. my expectations. Sure he has had some obstacles to overcome, but any self-respecting tropical system should have been able to make the most of it and beaten those back. I was expecting this to be a hurricane by now. What a mess this thing has turned out to be! LOL

For one hoping for domination, this is turning into exactly what you want.. given the circumstances, weak (right now) = more westward shift = more time over water (and into gulf) = rapid strengthening. Hurricane or strengthening (right now) = NW shift through cuba/mtns = very weak storm with barely any water interaction and pretty much hopeless.

[KBBOCA]

Meanwhile for those tired of waiting for Isaac to develop into something more exciting... there is always the W. Pac where it looks like an intensifying Typhoon Tembin at 130 knots is about to make landfall on Taiwan.

viewtopic.php?f=76&t=113365&start=120

[JonathanBelles]

Current Isaac thoughts: viewtopic.php?p=2258282#p2258282