ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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tgenius
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2341 Postby tgenius » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:33 pm

For anyone who has anything to do with BCP or DR at their jobs.. i'm relieved this thing isn't materializing as it would make me work ALOT this weekend to prep for nothing. :)
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2342 Postby KBBOCA » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:34 pm

SFLcane wrote:
cycloneye wrote:At this rate,it may reach the Yucatan Penninsula.


Yep was just thinking the same thing. This year has produced some of the most annoying systems I've ever seen. They just continue to struggle.


Given that we're already up to the J storm as of Aug 23, perhaps it's good that many of this year's storms have struggled! Beryl & Debby were probably plenty strong enough for the folks in FL to deal with!

Like Isaac I'm a bit "disorganized" myself - part of me really wants to see this system ramp up into something awesome to look at, but I sure don't want a dangerous storm harming people! Wish he were safely out in the N. Atlantic shipping lanes with the fish, then we could cheer him on with enthusiasm.
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Re: Re:

#2343 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:37 pm

pgoss11 wrote:
KWT wrote:That microwave imagery clearly shows a circulation south of PR around 17N. Another center also pretty obvious down near 15N which goes along with what other people are seeing.

Such a mess, the models develop the 17N vort area from what I've seen, at least according to the hurricane models...

So the models runs we have seen have used that 17N vort area? Wow! If the 15N vort became dominant, tracks would go way west..wouldn't they?


No they used the 15n vort area. I'd think if they used vort around 17n things might trend back east. Again if this wannabe tc ever gets its act together.
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adam0983

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2344 Postby adam0983 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:37 pm

Lets call in Dr. Mccoy.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2345 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:39 pm

I personally would be more than happy to see this turn out to be a dud.

hurricaneCW wrote:Shouldn't we all be happy if it turns out to be a complete dud. This season, the big storms are beyond the tropics.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2346 Postby hurricaneCW » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:39 pm

Still, despite Isacc's major struggle, the potential is there for him to explode and rapidly intensify which is why nobody should let their guard down. Hopefully its potential won't ever be realized.
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Re:

#2347 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:41 pm

KWT wrote:That microwave imagery clearly shows a circulation south of PR around 17N. Another center also pretty obvious down near 15N which goes along with what other people are seeing.

Such a mess, the models develop the 17N vort area from what I've seen, at least according to the hurricane models...



Looks like just a small vort, it's clearly too far north and would make sense that it's just swinging around the main center.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2348 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:43 pm

Agree the potential is still there but we have many examples of potential systems never panning out.
In my opinion I'm not sold either way on what Isaac will or will not do as of right now. We all know things
can change very quickly.

hurricaneCW wrote:Still, despite Isacc's major struggle, the potential is there for him to explode and rapidly intensify which is why nobody should let their guard down. Hopefully its potential won't ever be realized.
Last edited by Stormcenter on Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#2349 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:44 pm

SFLcane wrote:No they used the 15n vort area. I'd think if they used vort around 17n things might trend back east. Again if this wannabe tc ever gets its act together.


Take a look at the GFDL/HWRF, pretty clear that they focus in on the northern vort. The ECM seems to focus in on the southern vort.

I don't think anyone really has a clue at the moment, including the NHC! We really need that data from the gulfstream flight earlier on!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2350 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:44 pm

This afternoons discussion of Issac by Dr Jeff Masters.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:29 PM AST on August 23, 2012

Tropical Storm Isaac has strengthened slightly, data from the hurricane hunters show, but the storm remains disorganized and difficult to forecast. If you have to make decisions based upon what Isaac will do, I highly recommend that you wait until at least Friday morning to make a decision, if at all possible, as the forecasts then should be of significantly higher accuracy. Isaac continues to have a large area of light winds about 50 miles across near its center. This makes the storm subject to reformations of the center closer to areas of heavy thunderstorms that form, resulting in semi-random course changes. Until Isaac consolidates, the lack of a well-defined center will make forecasts of the storm's behavior less accurate than usual. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is in Isaac this afternoon, and has found that surface tropical storm-force winds on the east side of the storm, south of Puerto Rico, have undergone a modest expansion. These winds were mostly in the 40 mph range, with a few areas of 45 mph winds. The surface pressure remained fairly high, at 1004 mb. Infrared and visible satellite loops show that Isaac has fairly symmetric circular cloud pattern, with developing spiral bands that are contracting towards the center, which suggests intensification. However, the storm has a very clumpy appearance, and is a long way from being a hurricane. Given the storm's continued reluctance to organize, Isaac is unlikely to reach hurricane strength before encountering Haiti and Cuba. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows an upper-level outflow channel well-established to the north, and an intermittent outflow channel to the south. Radar imagery from Puerto Rico shows some weak low-level spiral bands that haven't changed much in intensity or organization this afternoon. NOAA buoy 42060 reported 1-minute mean winds of 35 mph and a wind gust of 40 early this afternoon. At St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, wind gusts up to 45 mph were observed early this afternoon. Isaac's rains caused major flooding last night in Trinidad and Tobago, the southernmost islands of the Lesser Antilles chain, according to the Trinidad Express. Isaac's rains have not been heavy enough today to cause flooding problems on other islands.


Latest model runs for Isaac

The latest set of 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs have shifted to the west compared to the previous set of runs. The models continue to show a west-northwestward track to a point on the south coast of Hispaniola, then across eastern Cuba and into the Florida Straits between Florida and Cuba. A trough of low pressure is then expected to pull Isaac to the northwest and then north, towards the Florida Panhandle. The big news in this model cycle is that both of our top models--the GFS and ECMWF--predict that 5 - 6 days from now, the trough of low pressure pulling Isaac to the north may not be strong enough to finish the job. These models predict that the trough will lift out and a ridge of high pressure will build in, forcing Isaac more to the west. The GFS predicts this will occur after Isaac makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle, resulting in Isaac moving slowly to the west over land, from Georgia to Alabama. The ECMWF predicts the westward motion will happen while Isaac is in the northern Gulf of Mexico, resulting in an eventual landfall near the Louisiana/Texas border on Thursday. There are some huge issues to resolve to make an accurate long-range track forecast for Isaac. Where will its center consolidate? How will the interaction with the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba will affect it? Where will Isaac pop off the coast of Cuba? Hopefully, the data being collected by the NOAA jet this afternoon will give us a more unified set of model forecasts early Friday morning. For now, pay attention to the cone of uncertainty. If you're in the cone, you might get hit.
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Re: Re:

#2351 Postby ColinDelia » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:44 pm

pgoss11 wrote:Would be the most frustrating bust ever.


let me know when it equals Gaston
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Re: Re:

#2352 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:45 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Looks like just a small vort, it's clearly too far north and would make sense that it's just swinging around the main center.


Quite possibly you're right...

But it does look better defined of the two on those microwave images posted up a while ago and its clear as day on the radar from PR and I spotted a circulation up there through the thinning cloud deck.

Still I'd be lying if I had much of an idea about this!
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Re: Re:

#2353 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:48 pm

KWT wrote:
SFLcane wrote:No they used the 15n vort area. I'd think if they used vort around 17n things might trend back east. Again if this wannabe tc ever gets its act together.


Take a look at the GFDL/HWRF, pretty clear that they focus in on the northern vort. The ECM seems to focus in on the southern vort.

I don't think anyone really has a clue at the moment, including the NHC! We really need that data from the gulfstream flight earlier on!



I don't see that here with the initialization. They went with the center closer to 15N and drive it WNW and fits with that area now south of PR in that radar just north of 15N.

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2354 Postby tgenius » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:48 pm

But with this kind of uncertainty doesn't there exist the possibility the 11am (and soon to be 5pm) tracks will be COMPLETELY wrong or would they still fall within the cone of error? As of tomorrow morning SFL would technically be in the 3 day cone.
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Re: Re:

#2355 Postby otowntiger » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:49 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
adam0983 wrote:This storm is just a big dud. Just an opinion not a forcast.



Wow. Bold statement. I am thinking, wait until Saturday or Sunday to call it dead, but that is me...



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Ha! If its gone before then no need to wait! :P Imn my opinion right now the chances of this thing going completely poof in the next day or two are just as good as it rapidly intensifying.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2356 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:51 pm

tgenius wrote:But with this kind of uncertainty doesn't there exist the possibility the 11am (and soon to be 5pm) tracks will be COMPLETELY wrong or would they still fall within the cone of error? As of tomorrow morning SFL would technically be in the 3 day cone.



I think were gonna see a big shift west with the NHC cone at 5pm.. I wouldnt think S. Fla will get into the 3 day cone
Last edited by Bocadude85 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#2357 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:51 pm

otowntiger wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:
adam0983 wrote:This storm is just a big dud. Just an opinion not a forcast.



Wow. Bold statement. I am thinking, wait until Saturday or Sunday to call it dead, but that is me...



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Ha! If its gone before then no need to wait! :P Imn my opinion right now the chances of this thing going completely poof in the next day or two are just as good as it rapidly intensifying.



Agreed..:)
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2358 Postby Ikester » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:56 pm

new track just came out on our system. Basically an update of the old track. Perhaps a hair to the west---and I do mean a hair. Closing in on landfall near Destin at 8pm Tuesday.
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#2359 Postby artist » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:01 pm

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2360 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:02 pm

Seems like SFL will be entering the 3 day cone.
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