ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

the last minobs that just came in are strange. all flight level winds are 5 to 15 while the sfmr ( unflagged) are upper 30's to 40's kts.

This system is just messing with my head in nearly all ways at the moment! They did tweet from the plane that this is a sure fire sign that this is a weak disorganised system. Great learning curve this one!

[Frank P]

Current model runs from GFS and Euro kind of remind me of a split of Georges 98 or even Frederick 79, not that neither will come to fruition but interesting no less...

[ConvergenceZone]

Here is something to chew on. Hurricane Eloise 1975

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Eloise

This thing was very disorganized over hispanola and Cuba, actually hit the yucatan, got up into the GOM and bombed to 955 mb Cat 3. Never give up!

Hey wxman76, aren't you a meteorologist as well? just wondering why your name isn't in blue?

[KBBOCA]

I see some people saying that they are frustrated by this storm. To me this is why I'm here, I love the uncertainty, [snip...]

With that said, I don't know how many of you use Twitter, but there is a lot of good information coming out of there right now by the NHC, NOAA, HRD, and other sources such as Jim Cantore and Brian Norcross. These are recent tweets from the Hashtag #isaac

I agree with Jevo... although the storm is frustrating, the craziness is exactly why I'm hooked so badly!

More importantly, thanks for the Twitter hashtag. It is great to see the NHC and NWS getting key info out by Twitter. Will enjoy following that. Very cool.

[tolakram]

Latest.

Very very dry to the west, no inflow at all.

[tropicwatch]

Here is something to chew on. Hurricane Eloise 1975

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Eloise

This thing was very disorganized over hispanola and Cuba, actually hit the yucatan, got up into the GOM and bombed to 955 mb Cat 3. Never give up!

Hey wxman76, aren't you a meteorologist as well? just wondering why your name isn't in blue?

I remember it well. It appeared it was going towards Mobile and at 2am my father woke me up because it decided to make a right turn not to far off the coast.

[KWT]

Yes Tolkram, I think the models have been abit quick in mixing out that drier air over the last few days, hence why the strength estimates have been slowly coming down from where they were a few days before prior to Haiti.

[KBBOCA]

I'll post this in the Hurricane Preps forum too, but I just saw while following Twitter re: Isaac that the Red Cross has some special apps to help with Hurricanes:

American Red Cross ‏@RedCross
Our hurricane app also features info on #RedCross shelters, a toolkit w flashlight, strobe light, alarm http://rdcrss.org/Py9tHU #Isaac

American Red Cross ‏@RedCross
In our Hurricane App, there's a one-touch “I’m Safe” button to let family, friends know u are okay. #Isaac http://rdcrss.org/Py9tHU

very cool to see technology put to such good use!

[edited - sorry I *KNOW* Isaac is not a Hurricane!]

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at the Recon obs, this is clearly not a tropical cyclone, its just a broad area of low pressure aka a tropical wave

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[BigB0882]

Looking at the Recon obs, this is clearly not a tropical cyclone, its just a broad area of low pressure aka a tropical wave

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hasn't this been the case for 24 hours or more? Or is this something new?

[Patrick99]

I hate ascribing personality to the inanimate, but this thing really looks like it just doesn't have the "will to live." I mean, geez, we've seen storms battle shear better than this has operated in a minor shear environment.

It has that "about to degenerate into an open wave" look about it.

[SunnyThoughts]

I hate ascribing personality to the inanimate, but this thing really looks like it just doesn't have the "will to live." I mean, geez, we've seen storms battle shear better than this has operated in a minor shear environment.

It has that "about to degenerate into an open wave" look about it.

Wouldn't hurt my feelings one little bit for it to do that. But I seriously doubt that is going to happen.

[Nimbus]

As Isaac approaches Haiti the high mountains may actually tighten up the circulation.

[tropicwatch]

Looking at the Recon obs, this is clearly not a tropical cyclone, its just a broad area of low pressure aka a tropical wave

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yeah the area with the lowest pressure the last pass had TS force winds.

[robbielyn]

that mid level circ continues to spit out vorticies not sure why its de coupled the way it is.

I would have to think low level dry air from South America

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

brian norcross said dry air from south America and a wave going east through the storm it will bypass isaac as they go in opposite directions. right now jim
cantore says south America dry air and the trough just to the west of I is shooting dry air into it.

[Frank P]

Looking at the Recon obs, this is clearly not a tropical cyclone, its just a broad area of low pressure aka a tropical wave

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yeah the area with the lowest pressure the last pass had TS force winds.

Well to my untrained eyes, it certainly is holding together looking at the latest IR loop with some impressive storms building in the NW quad.. I would be very surprised if this is just a broad area of low pressure... my humble and non professional opinion... FWIW, and not much I might add...

[SouthDadeFish]

New microwave pass:





Still disorganized....

[BatzVI]

Still very gusty here on northside of St. Thomas....just had some rain also...obs from the airport showed gusts to 45 late this afternoon...

[Frank P]

that mid level circ continues to spit out vorticies not sure why its de coupled the way it is.

I would have to think low level dry air from South America

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

brian norcross said dry air from south America and a wave going east through the storm it will bypass isaac as they go in opposite directions. right now jim
cantore says south America dry air and the trough just to the west of I is shooting dry air into it.

You can see the dry air embedded in the southeast quad on IR.. obviously it needs to get that out of its system if its going to develop further.......

[brunota2003]

If there was ever a storm to have full scale recon on, including the P-3s...this is definitely one of the storms! The data gained from these constant flights is going to be studied and scrutinized for years to come! Why isn't it coming together? If it does come together, what happened that lead up to that point? Etc...man oh man.

In other news...Isaac has at least 35 knot winds (1 minute sustained) per the 6 pm EDT update of Buoy 42059.