ATL: ISAAC - Models

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hurricanejustin
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2541 Postby hurricanejustin » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:22 pm

galvestontx wrote:are we sure east texas is out of the question?????


No, at the moment, there really isn't any place along the gulf coast out of the question. Is it likely it will impact Texas? No, IMO.

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2542 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:22 pm

MidnightRain wrote:I really am being cautious about the models atm. Go to the disc. thread, this system is not in great shape at and may not even make it out of the Carib alive. I think we need to take that into consideration when digesting these models.


Anything is possible but is there even 1 model that shows Isaac dying and never regenerating? I don't think so, not that has been shown or discussed if I am remembering correctly. Not saying it can't happen but the models seem to think that scenario is not very likely...at all.

And really, I can't see the conditions getting any worse for Isaac. He has held on this entire time and is not entering a less stable environment. It is the opposite, he is only forecast to eventually slow down even more and go over even warmer waters. If he has made it this far then I see no reason he wont continue to trudge along. Maybe he will never reach hurricane strength but I don't expect him to die. NOT A FORECAST.
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#2543 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:26 pm

gfs is just going bananas ..
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#2544 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:34 pm

Don't worry folks, craziness may be over soon.. Data a plenty right now... A whole lots of it and they will be injected in time for the models @ 00z.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2545 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:35 pm

And the EURO lasso's the GFS and bring it further west than before... :lol: ...I am smelling something left shifts and I dont think its done yet...JMO


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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2546 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:36 pm

BTW--- in case you missed it the EURO Ensembles are indentical to the OP.....thanks NTX for posting that...
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Re:

#2547 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:38 pm

meriland23 wrote:gfs is just going bananas ..


Well thats one way of putting. As I said the GFS 18z run has a decent grip of the ridge to the north of it, so its solution at least in the next 24hrs is probably going to be very close to the mark.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2548 Postby Jevo » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:39 pm

ROCK wrote:And the EURO lasso's the GFS and bring it further west than before... :lol: ...I am smelling something left shifts and I dont think its done yet...JMO


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Heh hey guys there is a state down there called Florida.... People seem to forget it sometimes.. The 18z GFS actually shifted East for the initial CONUS landfall impacting more of FL including major populations centers such as Dade and Broward county
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2549 Postby wxman76 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:39 pm

If the GFS is going bananas I need a banana split. More seriously though, what I take from the GFS is all the models are indicating very weak to no steering currents, so wherever this does hit may be dealing with it for awhile. We've seen loops on storms before. anyways here is something the chew on. Hurricane Eloise 1975. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Eloise Got destroyed over hispanola and cuba, went and touched the Yucata, got into the central GOM and BAMMM 955mb cat 3. Never give up!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2550 Postby JPmia » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:40 pm

This run reminds me of that pattern that when they hit south florida.. they go to Louisiana.. there are many storms that do that.. interesting. Does anyone know if they have been feeding weather balloon data from the SE and Caribbean into the models for these past few runs?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2551 Postby Jevo » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:41 pm

JPmia wrote:This run reminds me of that pattern that when they hit south florida.. they go to Louisiana.. there are many storms that do that.. interesting. Does anyone know if they have been feeding weather balloon data from the SE and Caribbean into the models for these past few runs?


I know the FL WFOs have been sending balloons up every 6 hours today.. not sure if theyre in yet
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#2552 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:43 pm

Yeah, if this ends up in the gulf at the right time, this could be just terrible given its snlow crawl to the coastline. Eloise (like above), fredric, georges.. they all ran through cuba/hispanola as a cat 1 or TS then into gulf to reach major 3 or 4 status... could you imagine this repeat.. only twice as long in the gulf cause of the weak steering?
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#2553 Postby Jevo » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:44 pm

Tweet from Dr. Knabb 10 mins ago

Dr. Rick Knabb ‏@NHCDirector
Don't read too much into shifts in track models on an individual forecast cycle. They might later shift back the other way. #Isaac
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Re:

#2554 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:47 pm

Jevo wrote:Tweet from Dr. Knabb 10 mins ago

Dr. Rick Knabb ‏@NHCDirector
Don't read too much into shifts in track models on an individual forecast cycle. They might later shift back the other way. #Isaac


Very very true. But shifts make the next run of models that much more exciting, don't they? I can't wait to see what the 0z runs tonight show. Does the Euro hold serve? Does the GFS hold serve, go further West to meet the Euro, further East again? I would love to see the two big guys meet somewhere and give us consensus so everyone has as much time as possible to prepare.
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Re: Re:

#2555 Postby Frank P » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:50 pm

BigB0882 wrote:
Jevo wrote:Tweet from Dr. Knabb 10 mins ago

Dr. Rick Knabb ‏@NHCDirector
Don't read too much into shifts in track models on an individual forecast cycle. They might later shift back the other way. #Isaac


Very very true. But shifts make the next run of models that much more exciting, don't they? I can't wait to see what the 0z runs tonight show. Does the Euro hold serve? Does the GFS hold serve, go further West to meet the Euro, further East again? I would love to see the two big guys meet somewhere and give us consensus so everyone has as much time as possible to prepare.


Absolutely.. things will get very hectic along the FL/GOM coast this weekend.. if you don't have your supplies on hand, I would encourage everyone who feels this threat to get your supplies tomorrow to avoid the panic over the weekend if this does indeed enter the GOM and you end up in the NHC 3-4 day out cone..
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2556 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:51 pm

Jevo wrote:
ROCK wrote:And the EURO lasso's the GFS and bring it further west than before... :lol: ...I am smelling something left shifts and I dont think its done yet...JMO


This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Heh hey guys there is a state down there called Florida.... People seem to forget it sometimes.. The 18z GFS actually shifted East for the initial CONUS landfall impacting more of FL including major populations centers such as Dade and Broward county




very true...no disrespect to the Floridians out there....I spend a lot of time in SOFLO on business so I feel for you guys.....

but back to topic: I recall someone saying the "EURO would not go to Texas on its worst day".... :lol:
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Re: Re:

#2557 Postby Jevo » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:51 pm

Here is a graphic they didnt show us

Image
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Re:

#2558 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:53 pm

Jevo wrote:Tweet from Dr. Knabb 10 mins ago

Dr. Rick Knabb ‏@NHCDirector
Don't read too much into shifts in track models on an individual forecast cycle. They might later shift back the other way. #Isaac


Very true on that, seems like he isn't totally convinced with the west shift of the models tonight. Still who knows at the moment, at this stage I'm not confident about the 24hr position yet alone 120-144hrs!
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#2559 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:53 pm

Ahahaha Jevo, thats about right, too funny!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2560 Postby Stormlover2012 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:55 pm

no he knows whats going on he just not hyping it up like some folks do
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