ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Weatherfreak000]

I agree, the west shift members do appear to be far too intolerant, aric is right there are alot of variables yet unseen. Mods need to clean this up, IMO

[sphelps8681]

It seems as though the euro and gfs are in some disagreement. Euro way left gfs to the right. But when you have two of the best models out there in such disagreement you have to stop and watch. Went through Ike and Rita and I can tell you things can change. Those that are looking at the gfs for guidance because it shows them in the path should stand up and take notice as to what it is showing. But the same holds true for the other model not in agreement. Those people under the gun on the other model should pay attention as well. It does not mean one is winning over the other. It just is causing questions and statements from both sides. Time will tell for either model. We can agree to disagree as they say. At this point no one is right or wrong. Just because you have an opinion does not mean people have to except that opinion. It's not texas against florida. Come on people.

[Hurricane Alexis]

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[Weatherfreak000]

boy the GFS ensembles sure are tightening up.. except for that one outlier to the west:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

That is BY FAR the tightest cluster of ensembles I've seen yet.

[KWT]

Yep that certainly looks like a west shift there looking at that set of models. Next advisory may shift the track a little to the left towards landfall.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Yep that certainly looks like a west shift there looking at that set of models. Next advisory may shift the track a little to the left towards landfall.

It looks the same to me,i might be wrong so please correct me if i am.

[Jevo]

boy the GFS ensembles sure are tightening up.. except for that one outlier to the west:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

That is BY FAR the tightest cluster of ensembles I've seen yet.

It is not a good weekend to be down in the Keys.. Monroe County has closed schools on Monday... Anyone else looking at the clock and realizing it's still 5 hours for the 0z Euro

[Frank P]

[quote="Hurricane Alexis"]

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Pretty clear from that perspective that the potential for south Fl to get impact from Isaac is very high attm... after that it does suggest that there is a definite west trend from the models... interesting to see what the NHC will post at 10:00, earlier I posted it would be just a tad shift to the west,say MS/AL line area.. or just extrapolate the 5:00 pm forecast more to the NW... just my unprofessional opinion and speculation, but regardless, this is going to be a very interesting system to watch over the next week or so...

[ROCK]

boy the GFS ensembles sure are tightening up.. except for that one outlier to the west:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

they are after being spread apart earlier today....

[KWT]

boy the GFS ensembles sure are tightening up.. except for that one outlier to the west:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

That is BY FAR the tightest cluster of ensembles I've seen yet.

Yep much tighter than yesterdays ensembles, still some uncertainty though as to where it hits Haiti and the exacts of the track, whether it hits Florida, etc.

[Hurricane Alexis]

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Pretty clear from that perspective that the potential for south Fl to get impact from Isaac is very high attm... after that it does suggest that there is a definite west trend from the models... interesting to see what the NHC will post at 10:00, earlier I posted it would be just a tad shift to the west,say MS/AL line area.. or just extrapolate the 5:00 pm forecast more to the NW... just my unprofessional opinion and speculation, but regardless, this is going to be a very interesting system to watch over the next week or so...

Oh, I see it now. I was focusing on the cluster through the keys, not in the NGOM.

[Aric Dunn]

boy the GFS ensembles sure are tightening up.. except for that one outlier to the west:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

That is BY FAR the tightest cluster of ensembles I've seen yet.

It is not a good weekend to be down in the Keys.. Monroe County has closed schools on Monday... Anyone else looking at the clock and realizing it's still 5 hours for the 0z Euro

actually the best the gfs ensemble members were clustered was after the 00 models the night before when everything was going up the spine of florida. just goes to show how much they change and will continue to .

[ROCK]

boy the GFS ensembles sure are tightening up.. except for that one outlier to the west:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

That is BY FAR the tightest cluster of ensembles I've seen yet.

It is not a good weekend to be down in the Keys.. Monroe County has closed schools on Monday... Anyone else looking at the clock and realizing it's still 5 hours for the 0z Euro

If the EURO shows Tx/La border again....can I have your hat?

[jlauderdal]

boy the GFS ensembles sure are tightening up.. except for that one outlier to the west:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

That is BY FAR the tightest cluster of ensembles I've seen yet.

It is not a good weekend to be down in the Keys.. Monroe County has closed schools on Monday... Anyone else looking at the clock and realizing it's still 5 hours for the 0z Euro

would be a great weekend to be in the keys, where is your sense of adventure..even better for the school kids, east coast florida kids nervous..lets see if we can get them a day off of school

[Jevo]

From Twitter:

HRD/AOML/NOAA ‏@HRD_AOML_NOAA
#NOAA42 #Isaac: On east-west pass, lightning display here. Winds at flight-level from east, suggesting flight-level center is south of us.

These poor guys still can't pinpoint the center.. Going to be interesting to see what the 0z runs initialize with

[brunota2003]

Recon also went back up to 10,000 feet...so they have to find the 700mb center again.

[Bocadude85]

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I think you can get an idea of what the 11pm track will look like if you look at the OFCI plot.. looks like they shifted the track a little east closer to S. Fla and then shifted it west with a end point south of Pensacola

[TwisterFanatic]

Probably better to look at the TVCN instead.

[Frank P]

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I think you can get an idea of what the 11pm track will look like if you look at the OFCI plot.. looks like they shifted the track a little east closer to S. Fla and then shifted it west with a end point south of Pensacola

Yeah and if you extrapolate that it looks very close to going into Mobile bay, certainly not good for Pensacola either...

[stormhunter7]

#NOAA42 #Isaac: Finished east-west pass, turned around and heading home. Will sample line of vigorous convection on lower fuselage radar.

Bugging out and heading home... low on fuel! Aka.. Research mission is winding down.