ATL: ISAAC - Models

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2721 Postby PTPatrick » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:31 pm

Did that tchp map imply that the gulf isn't warm? It's showing mid 80s on buoys....of is it another factor that takes into account water temp at depth, etc.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2722 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:33 pm

in 12 hrs gfs break down the ridging completely over the florida and the gulf. the road is open

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#2723 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:35 pm

How quickly does ridging change? 12 hours is not far away at all but is it something that can just as quickly build back in? I am just curious how much that means on a landfall 5 days away.
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#2724 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:35 pm

People were almost forgetting about us in southeast Florida. Looks like we arent out of the woods yet.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2725 Postby Sabanic » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:35 pm

Definitely going to be an interesting next few days
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#2726 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:39 pm

at 24 hours the gfs is slightly slower than the 18z. or about 20 miles ese ridging has fully collapsed the door is open.
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#2727 Postby Jevo » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:40 pm

0z GFS + 24

Image
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Re:

#2728 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:40 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:at 24 hours the gfs is slightly slower than the 18z. or about 20 miles ese ridging has fully collapsed the door is open.


Does that mean the storm would automatically head that way or does something (trough?) have to swing down and scoop him up? Probably a dumb question but I am still learning...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2729 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:41 pm

36 hrs. even slower .

18z
Image

0z

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#2730 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:41 pm

H36 far eastern tip of cuba
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Re:

#2731 Postby boca » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:41 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:at 24 hours the gfs is slightly slower than the 18z. or about 20 miles ese ridging has fully collapsed the door is open.


If the ridge is collaspsing theirs hardly any northerly componet to Issacs movement.
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Re:

#2732 Postby Sabanic » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:41 pm

Looks to be right where the NHC has him in 24



Jevo wrote:0z GFS + 24

Image
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#2733 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:42 pm

H42 eastern cuba
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2734 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:43 pm

48 Hour position is definitely slower and more north than the 18z

SFT
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#2735 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:43 pm

so far out to 42 hours about 50 miles east of 18z
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#2736 Postby Jevo » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:43 pm

0z GFS +48

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2737 Postby JPmia » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:44 pm

this is changing again it appears.. :double:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2738 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:44 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:48 Hour position is definitely slower and more north than the 18z

SFT



uh I am looking at the comparison now...looks the same... :D
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#2739 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:45 pm

H48 looks to possibly be exiting or about to into straits from eastern cuba..looks much like 18Z and further to the right then 12Z..interesting synoptics as well.....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2740 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:45 pm

JPmia wrote:this is changing again it appears.. :double:


as the pros have been saying it would. ( not the tv people lol)
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