ATL: ISAAC - Models

[SFLcane]

Is the sample data now incorporated into this run?

Yes i believe so

[T'Bonz]

Hey, what is this map called? I want to see the 72 hour one.

0z GFS +75 (Initial CONUS Landfall)

[Dean4Storms]

A bit slower but the track difference is negligible really thru 72hrs.

[wxwatcher1999]

It has really slowed down now at around 72 hours + hours. very little motion

weak steering currents maybe?

[SunnyThoughts]

Is the sample data now incorporated into this run?

Ingested 40 dropwinsondes from the G-IV, P-3 and a few from the Air Force flight.

[Aric Dunn]

87 hours.. starting to really strengthen and slower than 18z.


18z


00z

[BigB0882]

This is hilarious. We have posters swearing it is the same as the past model runs from today and others saying it is considerably different. Which in the World is it? To my completely untrained eyes it looks slightly East but not a huge shift at this point. Final landfall is too far away to call but we shall see shortly.

[SFLcane]

Think this concerning for sfl in terms that this run had some jet info in it.

[smw1981]

Thank you Sunnythoughts!!

[tolakram]

You can view older runs here: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

This site will update with the current run once it's finished.

[boca]

Yes, Boca..it is..

Thanks

[smw1981]

BigB, to my amateur eyes, it looks a little slower and a tad to the east! (And shows a stronger storm!)

[JPmia]

Think this concerning for sfl in terms that this run had some jet info in it.

Yes it is for now.. I also want to see the 5am advisory say it and then see Issac dance around those mountains lol

[Jevo]

This is hilarious. We have posters swearing it is the same as the past model runs from today and others saying it is considerably different. Which in the World is it? To my completely untrained eyes it looks slightly East but not a huge shift at this point. Final landfall is too far away to call but we shall see shortly.

Bottom line through 90hr.. slower, more intense, and right of today's earlier runs... but not right by a huge amount +/- 50 miles

[Aric Dunn]

96 hours just about a hurricane and about 100 miles ese of 18z sitting just off shore tampa moving really slow.

[BigB0882]

It appears the 87 hour map has it in almost the EXACT same spot it was in during the 00z run just much slower getting there (by 1 day, I suppose). The question is what happens next?

[Jevo]

0z GFs +105

[SeminoleWind]

wow looks like out to 105 hours barely moving at all

[timmeister]

00Z GFS 96 HRS

[Senobia]

Is the sample data now incorporated into this run?

Alright - since the long-anticipated data is already reflected into these models and the forecast track has a landfall point at the end of the cone - are there any other variables that could lead to any other wibbles, wobbles or jerks left or right of said track? Any other solid scenario lurking in the shadows that could warrant a significant change either way?