ATL: ISAAC - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Meteorcane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 559
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 6:49 am
Location: North Platte Nebraska

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2841 Postby Meteorcane » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:21 pm

One note is that Isaac appears to be a large cyclone, which may slow down intensification, but would also lead to more widespread impacts.
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10164
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2842 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:21 pm

Last edited by SFLcane on Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Comanche
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 381
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 9:33 am
Location: Clear Lake City Texas

Re: Re:

#2843 Postby Comanche » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:22 pm

jeff wrote:
You have to look upstream at the flow over the US and NW Pacific out in time, not what it is now. The culprit appears to be the strong shortwave off the NW US coast early next week which pumps up the southern plains ridge digging a downstream SE US trough. A flatter shortwave equalls less southern plains ridging and less SE US troughing allowing the weakness to fill. A stronger shortwave has the opposite effect. Bad news is that this area (Pacific) tends to give modeling troubles as it is un-sampled to a large degree. The key will be in the timing of Isaac and the timing/intensity of the short waves moving into the NW/N US and their effect on the downstream ridge over the southern plains. What continues to be worrying is the lack of a strong recurve and trough capture pattern in the models...minus the GFS. The rest tend to drive Isaac NW and inland more like rounding the west side of the ridge instead of being picked up by a trough. That may suugest they are seeing the ridging closing up the weakness, but their timing of Isaac is fast enough or far enough north to bring it northward/or their pattern amplification is greater.


Two reasons for the rehash here; first it is an excellent post to learn from and reminder that the big steering impacts are a long way away from where this storm currently sits. Second is more of a question. Since so many wait for the new data from the G IV mission, how much of the US upstream pattern is in this, if any at all? Isn't it just data from around the general area of the storm and out to some radii?
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2844 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:22 pm

ROCK wrote:look... its not that big of deal really....75 miles is diddly poo in the grand scheme of things...wobble here jog there and this could very well be east or west of the 18Z.....these dont move in straight lines...these nice curving lines on the map are not a true representation of the ridge...... :roll:



sorry but you were not saying that earlier when it shifted west 75 to 100 miles.. :double:
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

miamijaaz
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 172
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 3:40 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2845 Postby miamijaaz » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:23 pm

You know, rather than people focusing so much on the final US landfall, you think people should perhaps be focusing on the strong possibility of a first US landfall in one of the most populated areas of the country called South Florida?
0 likes   

CYCLONE MIKE
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2183
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:04 pm
Location: Gonzales, LA

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2846 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:24 pm

Let's not forget there is no definite center yet for the models to initialize onto. If then center happens to form 60-70 miles further south and miss Haiti all together could have major implications as far as where it goes in gulf
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2847 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:24 pm

miamijaaz wrote:You know, rather than people focusing so much on the final US landfall, you think people should perhaps be focusing on the strong possibility of a first US landfall in one of the most populated areas of the country called South Florida?


we are. but the chances of it becoming strong for the fl possible landfall are low. but the panhandle it has a chance to really strengthen. im paying attention either way :)
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
Meteorcane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 559
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 6:49 am
Location: North Platte Nebraska

Re: Re:

#2848 Postby Meteorcane » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:25 pm

Comanche wrote:
jeff wrote:
You have to look upstream at the flow over the US and NW Pacific out in time, not what it is now. The culprit appears to be the strong shortwave off the NW US coast early next week which pumps up the southern plains ridge digging a downstream SE US trough. A flatter shortwave equalls less southern plains ridging and less SE US troughing allowing the weakness to fill. A stronger shortwave has the opposite effect. Bad news is that this area (Pacific) tends to give modeling troubles as it is un-sampled to a large degree. The key will be in the timing of Isaac and the timing/intensity of the short waves moving into the NW/N US and their effect on the downstream ridge over the southern plains. What continues to be worrying is the lack of a strong recurve and trough capture pattern in the models...minus the GFS. The rest tend to drive Isaac NW and inland more like rounding the west side of the ridge instead of being picked up by a trough. That may suugest they are seeing the ridging closing up the weakness, but their timing of Isaac is fast enough or far enough north to bring it northward/or their pattern amplification is greater.


Two reasons for the rehash here; first it is an excellent post to learn from and reminder that the big steering impacts are a long way away from where this storm currently sits. Second is more of a question. Since so many wait for the new data from the G IV mission, how much of the US upstream pattern is in this, if any at all? Isn't it just data from around the general area of the storm and out to some radii?



The general upper air pattern is sampled fairly well over the United States with NWS balloons, and also occasionally with aircraft measurements. The G-IV was primarily to obtain data over the much more data-sparse ocean. However, some relevant upper air stations may go to 4 launches a day (as opposed to 2) in the coming days to try and get a better (and more immediate) view of upper air features.
0 likes   

wxwatcher1999
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 264
Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:19 am

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2849 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:25 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Let's not forget there is no definite center yet for the models to initialize onto. If then center happens to form 60-70 miles further south and miss Haiti all together could have major implications as far as where it goes in gulf



i have said that twice now hoping to get some feedback from someone more knowledgable than me
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9489
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2850 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:25 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
ROCK wrote:look... its not that big of deal really....75 miles is diddly poo in the grand scheme of things...wobble here jog there and this could very well be east or west of the 18Z.....these dont move in straight lines...these nice curving lines on the map are not a true representation of the ridge...... :roll:



sorry but you were not saying that earlier when it shifted west 75 to 100 miles.. :double:



really? when you have time I would love to hear your thoughts and reasoning behind that statement......
0 likes   

Javlin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1621
Age: 64
Joined: Fri Jul 09, 2004 7:58 pm
Location: ms gulf coast

Re: Re:

#2851 Postby Javlin » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:26 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Javlin wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:117 hours landfall panama city or about 100 miles east of 18z


so we have an decent east shift with new data. pretty much back to where the gfs was the last couple changes very good consistency



Thats more Pensacola;Panama is in that bend before the Big Bend area about 70miles maybe as the crow flies?.


oh yeah. what city is there then. destin?


Just geography Aric Pensacola,Destin,San Destin then Panama W>E.
0 likes   

SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2852 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:26 pm

miamijaaz wrote:You know, rather than people focusing so much on the final US landfall, you think people should perhaps be focusing on the strong possibility of a first US landfall in one of the most populated areas of the country called South Florida?


You are right Miami, you guys buckle up down there. Hopefully you won't be dealing with a strong hurricane. Stay safe.
0 likes   

User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2081
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2853 Postby Blinhart » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:27 pm

Listen guys, we all know that models will shift in between runs for the long range. What we need to watching is to see what it is doing in the short run. I'm worried about the end but we all know that the likely hood of it going exactly where the models say in 5 days is probably around 2 percent. What the models can basically tell us is most likely with in 400 miles of this area the storm will be in 4 days. That is a large area and it could possibly be even more than that.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

miamijaaz
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 172
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 3:40 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2854 Postby miamijaaz » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:27 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
miamijaaz wrote:You know, rather than people focusing so much on the final US landfall, you think people should perhaps be focusing on the strong possibility of a first US landfall in one of the most populated areas of the country called South Florida?


we are. but the chances of it becoming strong for the fl possible landfall are low. but the panhandle it has a chance to really strengthen. im paying attention either way :)


I wasn't referring to you Aric... :)
To those people that were saying a 50-75 mile east is no big deal. It does seem like a big deal to South Floridians or if I'm wrong, love to hear why so I don't have to kick in my BCP plan at work tomorrow!
0 likes   

User avatar
Meteorcane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 559
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 6:49 am
Location: North Platte Nebraska

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2855 Postby Meteorcane » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:27 pm

wxwatcher1999 wrote:
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Let's not forget there is no definite center yet for the models to initialize onto. If then center happens to form 60-70 miles further south and miss Haiti all together could have major implications as far as where it goes in gulf



i have said that twice now hoping to get some feedback from someone more knowledgable than me


You are right that the center placement would have important implications in the short term (and maybe in the longer term if it is able to strengthen considerably by avoiding major landmasses). However, the final Gulf Coast landfall (and to some extent the closest approach to SFLA) is more dependent on the overall synoptic pattern.
0 likes   

User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#2856 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:28 pm

hmmmm...looks like the GFS clearly sees a weaker ridge...Lets see if the euro follows it
0 likes   

Weatherfreak000

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2857 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:28 pm

ROCK wrote:look... its not that big of deal really....75 miles is diddly poo in the grand scheme of things...wobble here jog there and this could very well be east or west of the 18Z.....these dont move in straight lines...these nice curving lines on the map are not a true representation of the ridge...... :roll:

Right ...ppl sure have a short memory here. If the models shift one way no big deal models go back and forth but when they shift the other
Way OH MY it's a trend! Lol EURO will settle this
0 likes   

SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2858 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:29 pm

0 likes   

SapphireSea
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 430
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:13 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2859 Postby SapphireSea » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:29 pm

Looks like that piece of energy over N FL is the blame for the early 12hr-72hour east shift. Most models are seeing something split the ridge in the next few hours, and I am guessing that is it. The NAM and NOGAPS are picking up on this. Sampling show heights were slowly dropping across FL at 500mb. We will have to look at the storm motion in the next 24-36 hours to see if these can verify. Center reformations are still playing havoc, but small changes, even 20-40 miles can change how this behaves in S. FL. I have a feeling that the end of the forecast period will also shift east again later.
0 likes   

User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2860 Postby Jevo » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:29 pm

miamijaaz wrote:You know, rather than people focusing so much on the final US landfall, you think people should perhaps be focusing on the strong possibility of a first US landfall in one of the most populated areas of the country called South Florida?


I've been beating that drum all day.... LOL

Back to models though.. These were the dropsonde location from the G-IV today that are going into the 0z models now

See ya guys back when the 0z princess Euro runs :lol: :wink:

Image
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests