ATL: ISAAC - Models

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ROCK
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2861 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:33 pm

miamijaaz wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
miamijaaz wrote:You know, rather than people focusing so much on the final US landfall, you think people should perhaps be focusing on the strong possibility of a first US landfall in one of the most populated areas of the country called South Florida?


we are. but the chances of it becoming strong for the fl possible landfall are low. but the panhandle it has a chance to really strengthen. im paying attention either way :)


I wasn't referring to you Aric... :)
To those people that were saying a 50-75 mile east is no big deal. It does seem like a big deal to South Floridians or if I'm wrong, love to hear why so I don't have to kick in my BCP plan at work tomorrow!



I was talking final landfall.....sure SOFLO will take a lashing from a shredded TS thats a given with such a large circulation. You can re-read my post if you like and PM me. I would love to discuss.... :wink:
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#2862 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:34 pm

00z nogaps almost exactly same as gfs just a littel farth north through 72 hours but landfall the same and as a hurricane.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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#2863 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:35 pm

I'm about 9 miles east of Destin in Miramar Bch right beside Sandestin Resort so this run of the GFS gives me a likely restless night! I'm about a mile as a bird flies from the Beach and 400 yds north of the Bay on a thin sliver of land! :(
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2864 Postby Meteorcane » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:36 pm

HWRF gets going pretty soon right? Also I believe the FIM should be running
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#2865 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:37 pm

If GFS is correct, Isaac could dump 5-10" of rain over S FL.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2866 Postby Dencolo » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:37 pm

Good post Aric, looks like the global and dynamic models may be heading to a consensus - still a ways out but the panhandle area sure needs to keep an eye out.
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#2867 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:38 pm

next up the cmc in about 20 min will be complete.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2868 Postby PTPatrick » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:39 pm

Nhc kinda called an earlier north motion in the 11p before GFS even ran. That didn't change their reasoning in the extended and they still moved final landfall west. I just think this run put more of south fl in play but doesn't change much for the NGOM. The weakness allowing it into south AL at day 5 is a departure from earlier but that's still far out. And only minor differences in ridge strength can mean the diff between mobile, Nola, and p'cola. I would not focus on landfall point on day 5 just yet. It can and will change. We are getting into the time frame where NHC avg error is ~ 200 miles either side so it's gettin narrower. IMHo, cone stops moving much at this point and you end up with small track changes that while ony a 50-100 miles here or there, means a whole lot if it missed YOU by 50 miles. What 0z concerns me most about is potential for more gulf strengthening, not more game changing track issues.
Last edited by PTPatrick on Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2869 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:40 pm

how can you get a good consensus when the models dont even have a center to initialize on?
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#2870 Postby wxman76 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:41 pm

Here is in interesting bit of information to chew on. the vorticity max responsible for picking up the hurricane is currently in Arizona. You can see this by going to the Ncep site, download the 500 mb vort, height loop and play it backwards. No extra sampling is being done over there and the flow is weak. if that max is modeled wrong then things change. It will be interesting to see how the Euro handles it as it tends to historically handle handing of pieces of energy better than the GFS.
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Re:

#2871 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:43 pm

wxwatcher1999 wrote:how can you get a good consensus when the models dont even have a center to initialize on?


right now the estimated center is plenty good enough. the difference between the new that might form or not is small and wont change it much
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2872 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:43 pm

PLEASE READ

I am sick of reading the veiled attacks and jokes and useless comments about model runs. This is not a sports thread, it's a thread to discuss the model runs in a respectful fashion. If you have a cute one line comment to make that adds nothing, don't make it. If you have an issue with a post, report it. If you want to discuss something besides a model run then please take it to the discussion thread.
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Re: Re:

#2873 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:44 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
wxwatcher1999 wrote:how can you get a good consensus when the models dont even have a center to initialize on?


right now the estimated center is plenty good enough. the difference between the new that might form or not is small and wont change it much



i have been reading that it can make a big difference in the long run
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Re: Re:

#2874 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:46 pm

wxwatcher1999 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
wxwatcher1999 wrote:how can you get a good consensus when the models dont even have a center to initialize on?


right now the estimated center is plenty good enough. the difference between the new that might form or not is small and wont change it much



i have been reading that it can make a big difference in the long run


it can in certain circumstances. but the difference between where the two competing vorts are is small and the angle of approach is such that it wont make much difference.
now as it approaches florida if the there is a wobble or reformation will make a big difference in terms of population.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2875 Postby fci » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:50 pm

boca wrote:Steve Weagle says that its better news for S Florida that we are out of the error cone.


He said the Treasure Coast and Northern PBC were out of the cone NOT South Florida.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2876 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:56 pm

Let's stop talking about what someone heard a met say on TV. Too inaccurate unless you can produce a transcript or video, and some of this is getting close to met bashing, which is forbidden here. Nothing personal to any poster, I just think it's best we move on. Thanks.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2877 Postby miamijaaz » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:01 am

ROCK wrote:I was talking final landfall.....sure SOFLO will take a lashing from a shredded TS thats a given with such a large circulation. You can re-read my post if you like and PM me. I would love to discuss.... :wink:


See that's the thing. Historically, hurricanes passing near or west of Key West and heading north or northwest have had little to no impact in SEFL. But move a mere 75 miles or to the east and even a wimpy tropical storm/barely hurricane like Irene in the late 90s has the potential to cause widespread damage, mostly from flooding. A slow moving tropical storm/hurricane sitting in Florida Bay for hours could cause sever damage across 5 counties in South Florida. Someone said 5-10" of rain. I think that's being conservative.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2878 Postby fci » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:03 am

miamijaaz wrote:You know, rather than people focusing so much on the final US landfall, you think people should perhaps be focusing on the strong possibility of a first US landfall in one of the most populated areas of the country called South Florida?


Landfall in South Florida appears to be lower Keys and SW tip which are not the highly populated centers in Dade, Broward and Palm Beach County.
Also, we are talking a Tropical Storm for extreme SW Florida and a Hurricane for the second landfall.
I live in SE FL and worry much more for those in the Panhandle, ALA and MS. than for us.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2879 Postby SapphireSea » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:13 am

fci wrote:
miamijaaz wrote:You know, rather than people focusing so much on the final US landfall, you think people should perhaps be focusing on the strong possibility of a first US landfall in one of the most populated areas of the country called South Florida?


Landfall in South Florida appears to be lower Keys and SW tip which are not the highly populated centers in Dade, Broward and Palm Beach County.
Also, we are talking a Tropical Storm for extreme SW Florida and a Hurricane for the second landfall.
I live in SE FL and worry much more for those in the Panhandle, ALA and MS. than for us.


The Gulf Coast definitely has to watch this possibly significant system. However, there are new dense population centers in Cutler Bay and areas way west. The storm is probobly going to extend its peak winds into Homestead and these areas. There is also the significant threat of tornadoes that can cause alot of damage, and is often underestimated. Rains and the flood threat are a given depending it's speed. It will definately not be safe to have business as usual going on during the event.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2880 Postby Blinhart » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:18 am

Just a question, have you guys looked at the ensembles and noticed that some of them having him do a loop when it gets back into the Atlantic. I know that would be very far down the road, but that is a scary thought that it could come back and do a loop and who knows where it would go.
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