ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Texashawk]

Should be interesting to get some true bearings. I absolutely do not buy a 285 motion.

[wxman76]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 07:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 03
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 6:55:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°03'N 69°35'W (15.05N 69.5833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 238 miles (383 km) to the S (175°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,420m (4,659ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the SSW (211°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 116° at 38kts (From the ESE at ~ 43.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 168 nautical miles (193 statute miles) to the N/NNE (11°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,513m (4,964ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 10 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the north quadrant at 5:27:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 71 nautical miles (82 statute miles) to the NNW (332°) from the flight level center


Center fix 15N? must be a typo!

[Texashawk]

Center fix 15N? must be a typo!

[stormhunter7]

Feel bad for Jamaica in a few hours... they wake up and have a system to deal with.

[JamesCaneTracker]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 07:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 03
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 6:55:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°03'N 69°35'W (15.05N 69.5833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 238 miles (383 km) to the S (175°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,420m (4,659ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the SSW (211°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 116° at 38kts (From the ESE at ~ 43.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 168 nautical miles (193 statute miles) to the N/NNE (11°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,513m (4,964ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 10 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the north quadrant at 5:27:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 71 nautical miles (82 statute miles) to the NNW (332°) from the flight level center


Center fix 15N? must be a typo!

lol where have you been? That's what we are all talking about! That's where Recon found the center! All the way down near 15north!

[Shuriken]

this should be the longest discussion in history .

oh my...I don't know why I"m still up, but I'm glad I stayed awake. Can things get anymore confusing?

Actually this makes much more sense to me than the NHC's position, that was the most confusing thing of 2012.

IMO they should have been treating the northern LLC as a spit-off whirl ever since Martinique.

The mid-level center has maintained a rock-steady 270-degree heading all the way, and hogged most or all of the heavy convection every step.

(What I'm hoping I DON'T see in the discussion: congrats given to some obscure, previously discounted model which predicted whatever, or lots of high-fives to the weary air-crews and so forth while not saying anything about the problem which lead to seriously misreading a decoupled storm for over a day. -- You simply cannot obsess over the lowest found surface pressure or fix-point of surface circulation when a giant blob of -85C tops are maintaining themselves well away. This is especially the case after you already know you're having trouble locating circulations, and the big convective blob is on a heading outside your cone.)

Whether publicized or not, I hope post-scrutiny of Isaac leads to some changes in SOP.

[Texashawk]

Feel bad for Jamaica in a few hours... they wake up and have a system to deal with.

Wanna know the best part? They have no watch or warning of any kind at this moment.

[meriland23]

From earlier this afternoon

think the NHC is being kind of ridiculous with that nw shift in that short amount of time now. For all we know it could still be 15.4N at 70W

...maybe I should just keep my mouth shut from now on lol

ok let me get this straight your not a met but you made a better forecast than a bunch of pro's? Nice Congrats!

hehe it was just some assumption.. like a anything can happen, some dude after me kind of ridiculed the idea though, as you can see LOL


viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113367&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=2120

[stormhunter7]

NOAA42 is on deck/flight line.. should be airborne soon

[CronkPSU]

well at least Haiti and those 400,000 tent refugees should be safer now

[stormhunter7]

based on AFRecon NW to South run.. there dodging Tstorms heading south.. looking at HDOB data... i should clarify... there getting the carp beat out of them right now... bumpy ride! 23 mm/hr (~ 0.91 in/hr) rain rate at 15.1667N 71.3833W

[wxman76]

...maybe I should just keep my mouth shut from now on lol[/quote]

ok let me get this straight your not a met but you made a better forecast than a bunch of pro's? Nice Congrats![/quote]

hehe it was just some assumption.. like a anything can happen, some dude after me kind of ridiculed the idea though, as you can see LOL


viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113367&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=2120[/quote]

Just goes to show you can't take a model as truth. You need to look at the data and be realistic. Keep up the good work!

[CronkPSU]

@HRD_AOML_NOAA

#NOAA42 got off to a bright and early start for a mission into #Isaac. Take off was at 345 ET...enroute to the storm now.

[Texashawk]

They're going through some heavy storms - 36 mm of rain/hour rates!! Careful out there y'all!

[Shuriken]

Just goes to show you can't take a model as truth. You need to look at the data and be realistic. Keep up the good work!

A model is only as good as the data fed into it. -- If it's told Isaac's center is at 16.7N instead of 15N, it's going to bowl a strike in the wrong lane.

[meriland23]

@HRD_AOML_NOAA

#NOAA42 got off to a bright and early start for a mission into #Isaac. Take off was at 345 ET...enroute to the storm now.

How long before that info gets back to the board?

[meriland23]

Just goes to show you can't take a model as truth. You need to look at the data and be realistic. Keep up the good work!

A model is only as good as the data fed into it. -- If it's told Isaac's center is at 16.7N instead of 15N, it's going to bowl a strike in the wrong lane.

never dismiss the possibility of anything. Gotta keep a open mind for these sorts of things. Don't take models to heart, just know they are a mere guidance of general direction.

[dexterlabio]

just curious...so if the center is relocated further south, does that implicate a major change in track? like the storm somehow missing the islands (if not entirely) and heading more westerly?

[summersquall]

In honor of the new center fix...

Isaac's looking pretty symmetrical and the cold cloud tops are clustering about the center. I think he may finally be getting his act together. Looks like he's also likely to miss much of the rugged terrain of Hispanola unless he takes a more northerly jog pretty soon.


(deleted antiquated gif)

[Cyclenall]

this should be the longest discussion in history .

oh my...I don't know why I"m still up, but I'm glad I stayed awake. Can things get anymore confusing?

Actually this makes much more sense to me than the NHC's position, that was the most confusing thing of 2012.

IMO they should have been treating the northern LLC as a spit-off whirl ever since Martinique.

The mid-level center has maintained a rock-steady 270-degree heading all the way, and hogged most or all of the heavy convection every step.

(What I'm hoping I DON'T see in the discussion: congrats given to some obscure, previously discounted model which predicted whatever, or lots of high-fives to the weary air-crews and so forth while not saying anything about the problem which lead to seriously misreading a decoupled storm for over a day. -- You simply cannot obsess over the lowest found surface pressure or fix-point of surface circulation when a giant blob of -85C tops are maintaining themselves well away. This is especially the case after you already know you're having trouble locating circulations, and the big convective blob is on a heading outside your cone.)

Whether publicized or not, I hope post-scrutiny of Isaac leads to some changes in SOP.

That's exactly what I have been thinking all day, I couldn't have said it better. In regards to when they were saying they expected a NW jog after that first southern relocation, did they peg the newly found LLC (the north one) soon after and then pass that off as a "NW jog"? I would hope not but nothing in the NHC discussions said that. I also didn't read much about further center relocations in the recent discussions.