ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[meriland23]

In honor of the new center fix...

Isaac's looking pretty symmetrical and the cold cloud tops are clustering about the center. I think he may finally be getting his act together. Looks like he's also likely to miss much of the rugged terrain of Hispanola unless he takes a more northerly jog pretty soon.

is it dying? LOl

[lester]

recon obs indicate that Isaac may finally be organizing...interesting day ahead..

[wxman76]

Just goes to show you can't take a model as truth. You need to look at the data and be realistic. Keep up the good work!

A model is only as good as the data fed into it. -- If it's told Isaac's center is at 16.7N instead of 15N, it's going to bowl a strike in the wrong lane.

never dismiss the possibility of anything. Gotta keep a open mind for these sorts of things. Don't take models to heart, just know they are a mere guidance of general direction.

Very well said!

[Texashawk]

In honor of the new center fix...

Isaac's looking pretty symmetrical and the cold cloud tops are clustering about the center. I think he may finally be getting his act together. Looks like he's also likely to miss much of the rugged terrain of Hispanola unless he takes a more northerly jog pretty soon.

is it dying? LOl

That's from yesterday, Isaac's quite healthy these days.

[meriland23]

organizing.. dang near 2 degrees south of once predicted.. so what will this do to the path?

[summersquall]

Wow ..I'm tired, sorry for the mix up. Too much blob watching today.

[meriland23]

that was from yesterday? Here is current



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[wxman76]

Recon 15.017N 70.983W peak SFC winds SMFR 52 knts 59.8MPH !!!!!!

[stormhunter7]

Major props to AFR300... there are in some NASTY storms right now... very shocked to see them flying through it.. but appears cloud tops are warming.. so it could be storms are raining themselves out now... instead of building up atm... and they chose to fly through them

[Shuriken]

just curious...so if the center is relocated further south, does that implicate a major change in track? like the storm somehow missing the islands (if not entirely) and heading more westerly?

I posted these extrapolations a few pages ago:

[Texashawk]

Frankly, and ironically, I'd be more worried about interaction with South America than Hispanola at this point.

[meriland23]

this is going to change things.. this is going to change things loads. Warm waters and lass land.. witch is stirring the couldron..

[TexasSam]

I had to get my glasses out and find Center Fix Coordinates: 15°03'N 69°35'W on a map the old fashion way. heck of a relocation.

[meriland23]

I am not sure the 06z run of gfs is even worth checking.. wont it be 12z before it gets the recon coordinates?

[TwisterFanatic]

Notice that deep convection around the center? Something we haven't seen until now.

[fasterdisaster]

Recon 15.017N 70.983W peak SFC winds SMFR 52 knts 59.8MPH !!!!!!

A bump to 60 mph intensity then?

[Texashawk]

Won't JB be surprised.

[JamesCaneTracker]

Recon 15.017N 70.983W peak SFC winds SMFR 52 knts 59.8MPH !!!!!!

A bump to 60 mph intensity then?

I wouldn't think so... Most of those wind readings are more then likely rain contaminated.

[CronkPSU]

he actually thought the South would win....


@BigJoeBastardi

I have been saying and still firmly believe its like a large typhoon that has several centers, then consolidates. Plus the nature of season
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2h Joe Bastardi Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

think this will deepen more than models have. Still in formative stages as center shifted south again. Tracks east a bit again

[wxman76]

this is going to change things.. this is going to change things loads. Warm waters and lass land.. witch is stirring the couldron..

Well yes and maybe no. While the center is further south it is able to strengthen which could pull it northward, but then again if it doesn't start lifting, we'll be chatting on the Pacific thread in a couple of days! Euro did have good strengthening by 24 hrs This isn't a good thing for Jamaica, could be good for FLA. Probably bad for the Northern GOM Coast, very bad. only thing i know for sure is this storm is Jamaican me CRAZY!!