ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LaBreeze]

yeah this thing could hit mexico

Yucatan of Mexico or further west?

[KWT]

Just seen the ECM, it does look interesting in that it forecasts the system to move NNE and rotate into Haiti, actually has a good placement at this stage...

Anyway at least the 850mbs recon flight is showing a fairly uniform wind field now, so the MLC has strengthened over night.

[meriland23]

the track of this will be apparent once it is past haiti.. either over or under..

[Shuriken]

I don't think you can properly call 4,650ft above deck "mid-level" when the CBs are pushing 70k.

It's a peel of paint away from the surface.

[KWT]

If your getting 40-50kts SW flight level winds, its hard to imagine there won't be some sort of surface reflection but we will see, we've got recon on the way now to look at the LLC.

[Shuriken]

(My assumption is they're next going to do a NE->SW pass through the center.)

[Cyclenall]

-- So this means that 16.1N is going to be fed into the next round of models, right?

Yeah I know the feeling, been feeling that for a couple days now . I expect it to get much better organized after 11:00 am EDT. Goodnight (or goodmorning) everyone.

[AJC3]

(My assumption is they're next going to do a NE->SW pass through the center.)

You assume correctly, sir. Standard Alpha flight pattern.

[KWT]

Yep it looks that way. Motion of this part of the system may well be more of a solid WNW/NW if it is finally developing, though I've got my doubts that the model solution of a NNW motion from here will happen!

We will have to see what the lower level recon flight finds soon.

[Shuriken]

-- So this means that 16.1N is going to be fed into the next round of models, right?

Yeah I know the feeling, been feeling that for a couple days now.

Now get this: the other day, the NHC included model points into their estimate of a center fix.

In other words, a model's output was used to generate new data which would in turn feed the model. (!?!?!)

-- It's a giant ball of feedback-loop GIGO.

....If Jamaica gets creamed tomorrow, I predict heads are going to get lopped over this.

[KWT]

Very impressive winds of the eastern side at the moment, 45-47kts being found pretty constantly as they head towards the NE quadrant. True motion looks like being something between 290-300 but we will see what this recon pass show!

[Shuriken]

Very impressive winds of the eastern side at the moment, 45-47kts being found pretty constantly as they head towards the NE quadrant!

Isaac is so huge that he's already dipping a toe in the Pacific -- you can see a feeder setting up over Venezuela, and cu moving ashore in Columbia.

They're are going to get a ton of rain down there.

[meriland23]

New gfs runs further east, hits panama city/st george island

[KWT]

Looking very good in the NE quadrant, the stronger FL winds extend a decent way away from the center.

Should see in the next 30-40 mins what recon finds in the center.

[meriland23]

Looking very good in the NE quadrant, the stronger FL winds extend a decent way away from the center.

Should see in the next 30-40 mins what recon finds in the center.

double sure of position in 30 min?

[tgenius]

Assuming the GFS runs pan out wouldn't that mean SFL would get more rain/wind out of this? I would think going over the mountains of Hispaniola and /or Cuba would severely disrupt whatever is there but looks to be a rainy weekend in any event down here

[meriland23]

GFS has not grasped the new data obviously, it is practically the same track as 6 hrs ago, only a smidge east and N

[meriland23]

Assuming the GFS runs pan out wouldn't that mean SFL would get more rain/wind out of this? I would think going over the mountains of Hispaniola and /or Cuba would severely disrupt whatever is there but looks to be a rainy weekend in any event down here

IF it goes through the mtns.. it is already under hispan near halfway and still chugging west..



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[Shuriken]

Assuming the GFS runs pan out wouldn't that mean SFL would get more rain/wind out of this? I would think going over the mountains of Hispaniola and /or Cuba would severely disrupt whatever is there but looks to be a rainy weekend in any event down here

Until those models are fed a center-fix which is actually co-located with the business portion of the storm, I don't see any reason to assume they'll be anything other than spectacularly wrong.

[KWT]

double sure of position in 30 min?

I think we finally do have a decent LLC that is co-located with the deep convection and much closer to any MLC so I think we can be more confident of what recon finds and motion, etc.