ATL: ISAAC - Models

[sponger]

The GFS run is ugly for Florida. I can't tell you how much rain we have had but yesterday was the first mostly dry day in weeks and the yard is still leaking like a wet sponge. I cant wait to see what the next runs bring!

[Listeri69]

The far west outlier looks like it could end up being the conscientious if the Recon center is correct.....

[meriland23]

I am anxious for the 8am update

[KWT]

The problem is BA all the models look too far east right now unless it takes a major jog to the north very soon...

[tolakram]

0Z global model roundup, 72H and closest frame to final landfall

[CalmBeforeStorm]

The Euro now shows what I think depicts a Cat 1 hurricane at about Key West in 48 hours. What if Issac ramps up just a bit faster? No time for evacuations in the keys. Issac will probably be weak enough but you never know. Potentially bad situation.

[Dean4Storms]

Too much consensus with just 4 days out, this looks like a Mobile to PCB landfall.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html
6z GFDL shows a pretty good storm going over the southern tip of Florida and up the west coast of Florida. The consensus is on the Florida Keys and moving a little right. Looks like some nasty weather for south and western Florida.

[wxwatcher1999]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl/06zgfdl500mbHGHTPMSLgfdlLoop.html
6z GFDL shows a pretty good storm going over the southern tip of Florida and up the west coast of Florida. The consensus is on the Florida Keys and moving a little right. Looks like some nasty weather for south and western Florida.

i am still having a hard time believing these models will verify with the current motion of isaac...in my opinion for them to verify he would have to take a turn almost due north with his current location

[caneman]

Too much consensus with just 4 days out, this looks like a Mobile to PCB landfall.

Along with a Keys landfall and possible significant impacts along the Florida West Coast.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl/06zgfdl500mbHGHTPMSLgfdlLoop.html
6z GFDL shows a pretty good storm going over the southern tip of Florida and up the west coast of Florida. The consensus is on the Florida Keys and moving a little right. Looks like some nasty weather for south and western Florida.

i am still having a hard time believing these models will verify with the current motion of isaac...in my opinion for them to verify he would have to take a turn almost due north with his current location

I think movement has been slow and direction is undependable because of so many relocations and bad structure. I still expect a track over Haiti.

[perk]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl/06zgfdl500mbHGHTPMSLgfdlLoop.html
6z GFDL shows a pretty good storm going over the southern tip of Florida and up the west coast of Florida. The consensus is on the Florida Keys and moving a little right. Looks like some nasty weather for south and western Florida.

i am still having a hard time believing these models will verify with the current motion of isaac...in my opinion for them to verify he would have to take a turn almost due north with his current location

I think movement has been slow and direction is undependable because of so many relocations and bad structure. I still expect a track over Haiti.

Then it better as wxman57 said take a hard right turn real soon.

[wxwatcher1999]

are the models taking into account the current heading?....im new just trying to learn

[Blown Away]

12z


06z

Huge East Shift!

[tolakram]

Looks nearly the same to me? Wrong image posted?

[wxwatcher1999]

it better start turning north if you believe those models

[PTPatrick]

I think I get what she's says about the "shift" not major but like political ads, matters at the margins. There's are fewer and lines over toward AL on the edge. Mostly though te core models look similar. At these point barring a major center reform were just going to be dealing with minor diffs in ridge strength. Gulfport to APalachicola appears to be the luck winner of 2nd landfall...not official, JMHO


What is interesting is how they handle remnants after landfall. Last night the idea was slow mover into AL....today it's slow mover NE...that's a big change.

[wxwatcher1999]

is the latest hwrf model into New orleans?

[sphelps8681]

Looks nearly the same to me? Wrong image posted?

I was thinking the same thing. I don't think that is the lastest map.

BTW the top seems to be the lastest.

[tolakram]

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hwrf hasn't been accurate in years, unfortunately.

With this much consensus I'd bet the farm on a turn, it's going to happen and with Isaac finally showing signs of life the chance of it turning is increasing by the minute. Extrapolated recon centers already takes it north of Jamaica on the current heading, a slight turn to the north put's it very close to model tracks.