ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

its not going to jump that far north...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... zoom=&time. but I good WNW- NW looks to be the idea for now....

[Air Force Met]

Isaac is looking better by the minute this morning!
Based on the recon fixes this morning of the H85 vorticity or COC it is still heading towards the western tip of Haiti.

The 12z best track is really close. I have no arguments with it. The models were showing a jog to the NW and this could be occurring...especially after a slow down and re-org.

[deltadog03]

Do we finally have a good center to track?? lol

[brunota2003]

Looking at everything...looks like the center is near 15.7N, and I expect this afternoon's recon flight is going to look so different that you'll be wondering if they are flying into the same storm! Convection is starting to wane at the moment, but I expect it to refire, especially this afternoon. Right now, I think it is giving up energy to reorganize, and then once that is complete (or close to it), look out! Starting to see signs RI may be on the not so distant horizon, unless it somehow gets pulled over land in the next 12 to 24 hours.

RI at this point would put it as (at least) a 75 knot hurricane by 8 am tomorrow morning (RI is considered as a jump in wind speed of at least 30 knots in a 24 hour period). It looked like the indicator I usually use was starting to appear around 6 am, which would put the "snap together" around 12 pm to 2 pm EDT...the only thing is, I'm not confident it'll make 30 knots by tomorrow morning...because of the lack of organization it would have to fight through prior to being able to take off, along with any possible land interaction...best bet would be to hedge at 20 knots currently, until we see what this afternoon brings.

My forecast:

Between now and 8 am tomorrow:
Peak wind speed of 65 knots
Peak wind speed of at least 75 knots possible, barring land interaction and depending on how quick it manages to pull the rest of the way together.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Bumping this up 5 knots in both categories, due to the 12Z (8 am) BT being upped to 50 knots.
First category 70 knots.
Second is 80 knots now.

[cycloneye]

Those members who live in,Jamaica,Bahamas,the Keys,Florida Penninsula and Florida Panhandle can post how things are going in terms of preparations as well post weather observations and web cams on the sticky thread for these areas.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113468&hilit=&p=2259853#p2259853

[otowntiger]

WX57, what strength do you figure for landfall? Final LF. That is.

Somewhere between 60 and 120 mph, I'm thinking.

Ha! I love it. You're being honest! Tracks are easier to predict aren't they? It really could be anywhere in that range. Heck I've seen monster storms rapidly degenerate just as the approached the northern gulf coast time and time again. Its a phenomenon that's not well understood for sure as is the overall intensity forecasting.

[Bocadude85]

Anyone have a guess at what point watches would go up for South Florida?

[Air Force Met]

Do we finally have a good center to track?? lol

I thought we did.

Until I looked at the hi-res visible. It leads me to believe it's still got some gyre action to it...but the best track is close.

[windnrain]

What the heck did I miss last night?

I was up til 3 in the morning, and everyone was raging about how the NHC got this one horribly wrong, the center was 85 miles from where they'd be tracking it, etc.

Now it looks like its moving NW into Hispanola.

[NDG]

HR sat loop this morning, now shows that H85 vorticity is getting much closer to the mid level vorticity, I think we are finally seeing stacking getting in place this morning, or least a better looking storm than yesterday morning.

[wxman57]

One thing that gets my attention is the instability (or lack thereof) in the Gulf of Mexico presently. The instability chart below generally assesses stability by analyzing temperature profiles aloft. Warm air aloft would make the region more stable. Look how low the instability is currently in the Gulf - levels typically seen in late May. What does this have to say about potential intensification in the Gulf?

[NDG]

Those members who live in,Jamaica,Bahamas,the Keys,Florida Penninsula and Florida Panhandle can post how things are going in terms of preparations as well post weather observations and web cams on the sticky thread for these areas.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113468&hilit=&p=2259853#p2259853

I heard on the news yesterday that the GTMO Naval Base in Cuba was being or possibly get evacuated.

[NDG]

One thing that gets my attention is the instability (or lack thereof) in the Gulf of Mexico presently. The instability chart below generally assesses stability by analyzing temperature profiles aloft. Warm air aloft would make the region more stable. Look how low the instability is currently in the Gulf - levels typically seen in late May. What does this have to say about potential intensification in the Gulf?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... gmxins.png

Great point!

[Stormlover2012]

i think issac doesnt look to good right now

[BigB0882]

One thing that gets my attention is the instability (or lack thereof) in the Gulf of Mexico presently. The instability chart below generally assesses stability by analyzing temperature profiles aloft. Warm air aloft would make the region more stable. Look how low the instability is currently in the Gulf - levels typically seen in late May. What does this have to say about potential intensification in the Gulf?

I have no idea. I feel like I just failed a test. Does this mean it may be less likely to bomb in the Gulf or more likely? Assuming it ends up somewhere in the Gulf.

[Air Force Met]

What the heck did I miss last night?

I was up til 3 in the morning, and everyone was raging about how the NHC got this one horribly wrong, the center was 85 miles from where they'd be tracking it, etc.

Now it looks like its moving NW into Hispanola.

Look at the job b/w the 2 am and 5 am positions. That is what the discussion was about. The 11PM fix had the center near 16.7N...and there was SSMI-S and a dropsonde showing the center couldn't be there.

You didn't miss anything.

[tgenius]

So the safe money is the 11am official track will be further west, the same or back east based on the 12z model runs?

[Blown Away]

After all that fighting and struggling I think Isaac can finally relax and breathe a little. Look at the pretty fanning!! He's coming together.

[MidnightRain]

One thing that gets my attention is the instability (or lack thereof) in the Gulf of Mexico presently. The instability chart below generally assesses stability by analyzing temperature profiles aloft. Warm air aloft would make the region more stable. Look how low the instability is currently in the Gulf - levels typically seen in late May. What does this have to say about potential intensification in the Gulf?

I have no idea. I feel like I just failed a test. Does this mean it may be less likely to bomb in the Gulf or more likely? Assuming it ends up somewhere in the Gulf.

Less likely.

[Aric Dunn]

Do we finally have a good center to track?? lol

its looking that way. I made myself sleep longer hoping I would wake up and fine a actual center. lol
although there could still be another vort in there.