ATL: ISAAC - Models

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ROCK
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Re:

#3061 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:53 am

pgoss11 wrote:Am I right in saying the Nam is good for synoptics?


yes...over the CONUS....its horrible on tropical systems....in all my years I have only seen it verify once and it probably got lucky... :D

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Re:

#3062 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:53 am

wxwatcher1999 wrote:where did the latest NAM make landfall?...sure looks west to me


current NAM is running @ +10 currently
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Re:

#3063 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:54 am

pgoss11 wrote:are they expecting a sharp NE turn after landfall? Appears so on that map.



do you have a model to show this. I want to see it for myself please
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Re: Re:

#3064 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:55 am

ROCK wrote:
pgoss11 wrote:are they expecting a sharp NE turn after landfall? Appears so on that map.


its all about timing when it comes down to these guys.....the reason they turn NE after landfall is the high builds in overhead....another 24 hours+ that high would have built in over the SE coast thus driving this more left than consensus. JMO....I can say this, the more time it takes jacking around downstream the upstream is changing and it could be left behind...



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Go to listen to JB's free video update at Weatherbell, he explains how the trough over the NW CONUS is much sharper and the ridge that was being forecasted to drive Isaac west may be over done. He thinks up the W coast of Florida, but hanging on to his E coast track to make sure he is right either way. :D
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Re: Re:

#3065 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:56 am

Jevo wrote:
wxwatcher1999 wrote:where did the latest NAM make landfall?...sure looks west to me


current NAM is running @ +10 currently



I so wanted your hat last night!!! but that dang EURO decided to swing another 400 miles right.... :ggreen:
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Re: Re:

#3066 Postby pgoss11 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:57 am

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:
pgoss11 wrote:are they expecting a sharp NE turn after landfall? Appears so on that map.



do you have a model to show this. I want to see it for myself please

http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/6554/ernestoy.jpg
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Re: Re:

#3067 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:12 am

ROCK wrote:
Jevo wrote:
wxwatcher1999 wrote:where did the latest NAM make landfall?...sure looks west to me


current NAM is running @ +10 currently



I so wanted your hat last night!!! but that dang EURO decided to swing another 400 miles right.... :ggreen:


lol.. As soon as I saw the 0z NAM come back with the G-IV data and the weakness I knew the crown would be safe...... For Now.... Then again, the G-IV is dropping enough sondes today that you could walk from Miami to Puerto Rico without getting your feet wet... Any changes from that data will be in 12z/18z
Last edited by Jevo on Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#3068 Postby cpdaman » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:15 am

ROCK wrote:
pgoss11 wrote:Am I right in saying the Nam is good for synoptics?


yes...over the CONUS....its horrible on tropical systems....in all my years I have only seen it verify once and it probably got lucky... :D

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Re: Re:

#3069 Postby Portastorm » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:15 am

BigB0882 wrote:
Comanche wrote:Still seeing a 270 direction............. and a center at roughly 15.1N/71.1W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


I have no idea. I see a lot of people swearing it is now heading NW and some saying it is still going more W or maybe just a little WNW. This storm is constantly changing. It has supposedly been getting its act together for days now. In my completely amateur opinion, it looks like it is getting a little ragged again in those last few frames. I can't possibly figure out a motion but perhaps a more NW bend at the very end? I am totally guessing as it depends where I focus my eyes.


Actually, the storm is not changing at all. It has been in a slow development phase for days now. Until we get a clear center of circulation it will be difficult to gauge a true storm motion. Best the experts can do at this moment is estimate.
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#3070 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:30 am

Did I land on the Model Thread or the Discussion of whatever thread?
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#3071 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:32 am

FWIW…NAM shifted south of Cuba. Somewhat of a mess.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F24%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=WNATL&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=Western+North+Atlantic+-+Southeast+US+Central+America+Caribbean&prevArea=WNATL&currKey=region&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
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#3072 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:33 am

I know the Nam is not good for TC but what is it showing that causes it to stay below Cuba? If the NAM is good for seeing the what is going on aloft, what is it showing?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3073 Postby Canelaw99 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:35 am

NAM not totally south of Cuba. There's a second low north of Cuba, off the SE FL coast. I don't know whether that means the NAM is predicting quite an elongated center, or what. I know the NAM isn't good for tropical systems, so won't put much stock in it anyway.
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Re: Re:

#3074 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:36 am

BigB0882 wrote:
Comanche wrote:Still seeing a 270 direction............. and a center at roughly 15.1N/71.1W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


I have no idea. I see a lot of people swearing it is now heading NW and some saying it is still going more W or maybe just a little WNW. This storm is constantly changing. It has supposedly been getting its act together for days now. In my completely amateur opinion, it looks like it is getting a little ragged again in those last few frames. I can't possibly figure out a motion but perhaps a more NW bend at the very end? I am totally guessing as it depends where I focus my eyes.



if RECON has the center right then it is NW....see RECON thread for their fixes....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3075 Postby Stormlover2012 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:36 am

nam been far east for 5 days now
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Re:

#3076 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:39 am





it cant resolve the 2 vort that we are seeing so it keeps them.....go NAM go....FWIW- Last nights run of the EURO had 2 centers at 24hrs.....but loses one (the south one) and or it consolidate north into one lowat 48hr.....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3077 Postby drezee » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:40 am

wow, the NAM has a center relocation S of Cuba. You can basically throw this run in the trash. Also, has a convective feedback issue on the MLC over Haiti moving NNW. Entertainment purposes only...I hope Carl Parker does not start showing this run...
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#3078 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:42 am

yeah dont ever look at tha nam for the movement of a tc. its just a indicator of the synoptic setup. for instance last night it showed the weaker ridging and then er expected the gfs to show similar and it id.
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#3079 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:55 am

The weakness is still there from last night, but +84 is wonky... Lets see how the GFS and Euro handle the data

12z NAM + 84

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3080 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:58 am

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


06Z NOGAPS seems to think MS / AL....hard to tell..but its the NOGAPS
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