ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cpdaman]

lets see if he can get some convectin firing between the lat/longitude box 18/70 and 16/72

[nativefloridian]

Isaac could possibly be a double whammy for me. Residence in South Florida...rental property in New Port Richey, Fl (about 40 miles north of Tampa)

[ObsessedMiami]

Yes, these next 12-24 hours are indeed critical when it comes to determining what impact we will have in SE FL from Isaac. Can't wait to see the midday models to see if any shift further east or not.

SFL teachers and students doing voodoo now for model runs

[wxwatcher1999]

does the forcasted track have it moving NW at this point when it is really moving WNW?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Isaac could possibly be a double whammy for me. Residence in South Florida...rental property in New Port Richey, Fl (about 40 miles north of Tampa)

I feel for you,

I am in the same boat, live here in Miami but headding down to Key Largo after lunch to close up the house tie down the boat and pick things.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

when does recon pass again?

1:30pm EDT

[jlauderdal]

Surprised no watch for the Keys at this time

based on their forecast the watch criteria isn't met at this time

[ozonepete]

yeah thats a 6 hour overall motion recon found nw but the difference is not that far off.

NHC says 295 heading, hard to get much closer to NW than that!

u do realize true NW is 315?[/quote]

I think he does. He said hard to get much closer which is true. Anything over 300 and under 330 is considered NW so it's only a little over 5 degrees from a northwest heading now anyway.

[ozonepete]

does the forcasted track have it moving NW at this point when it is really moving WNW?

Official movement from NHC is WNW, but they said this in the 11AM discussion:

THE 12Z POSITION USED A MEAN CENTER...WHICH RESULTED IN A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT. SINCE THEN...ISAAC APPEARS TO HAVE ACQUIRED A STRONGER NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/12. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ISAAC SHOULD MOVED NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HR...

[floridasun78]

you think it be hurr watch or ts watch for south fl?

[Hurricane Andrew]

My messy 3-Day forecast cone for Issac at 12hours,24,48 and 3 days. The intensity is in mph.
[ img]http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/8453/isaaccone.jpg[/img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

You have it going straight WNW? Why?

[Bocadude85]

you think it be hurr watch or ts watch for south fl?

TS watch.. probably from Deerfield Beach southward I would think.

[ozonepete]

you think it be hurr watch or ts watch for south fl?

Usually they'll put up TS watches first. They can upgrade them to hurricane watch if/when necessary.

[jlauderdal]

you think it be hurr watch or ts watch for south fl?

TS maybe, no hurricane watch for now

[Air Force Met]

I don't see any NW motion (304 deg or greater), possibly WNW. It's easy to be deceived by the satellite loop as your eye is drawn to an area of convection east of the center that is rotating northwestward.

we're getting that from RECON. My eyes are crossed from 3 days of trying to find the center.

The problem with some of those fixes...and using those to say the sfc is moving NW...is they had a 34 kt sfc wind...which means the center wasn't near there...they were near the FL center.

[wxman57]

Recon had a very hard time finding a well-defined center.

Which is the story of Isaac isn't it? Has there EVER been a defined center? As someone else just said, it really is about watching the blob and its overall movement.

Correct, and the "blob" has been moving mostly due west.

[MGC]

When watches are posted it will likely be for a large swath of coastline due to Isaac's larger circulation........MGC

[HurricaneAndrew92]

UGH i hope you're wrong quote from fsusurfer
Me too.

[Hurricane Andrew]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My new forecast.
0 Hours, 50 kts
12 Hours, 55 kts
24 Hours, 55 kts
48 Hours, 50 kts
72 Hours, 60 kts.
Thoughts?

This was my forecast from before, updated to show new advisory.

[ozonepete]

I don't see any NW motion (304 deg or greater), possibly WNW. It's easy to be deceived by the satellite loop as your eye is drawn to an area of convection east of the center that is rotating northwestward.

we're getting that from RECON. My eyes are crossed from 3 days of trying to find the center.

The problem with some of those fixes...and using those to say the sfc is moving NW...is they had a 34 kt sfc wind...which means the center wasn't near there...they were near the FL center.

You are right of course. I assume that's one reason the official movement in the 11 AM is WNW but the discussion says they expect it to be NW for the next 72 hours.