ATL: ISAAC - Models

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petit_bois
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3081 Postby petit_bois » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:08 am

The euro really had a handle on this days ago... amazing.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3082 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:10 am

ROCK wrote:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2012082406&set=Tropical


06Z NOGAPS seems to think MS / AL....hard to tell..but its the NOGAPS


Rock, I'm predicting 12z GFS clips SW Florida and landfalls in Big Bend and the 12z Euro swings E near Panama City. There you go! :D
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#3083 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:12 am

12z BIG model predictions
GFS: Clips SFL, then LFs just E of Pcola.
ECMWF: LF near the AL/FL border.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3084 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:16 am

Blown Away wrote:
ROCK wrote:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2012082406&set=Tropical


06Z NOGAPS seems to think MS / AL....hard to tell..but its the NOGAPS


Rock, I'm predicting 12z GFS clips SW Florida and landfalls in Big Bend and the 12z Euro swings E near Panama City. There you go! :D



We will know soon enough, 12z comin up from the gfs in 10 min
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#3085 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:26 am

00hr gfs 12z
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#3086 Postby bucman1 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:27 am

Question: I keep hearing how the NAM is no good for tropical systems and this model is not good for tropical systems, why do they keep using them?
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Re:

#3087 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:28 am

bucman1 wrote:Question: I keep hearing how the NAM is no good for tropical systems and this model is not good for tropical systems, why do they keep using them?

GFS ? No good? Don't listen to that rubbish, GFS and Euro are the most reputable.
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#3088 Postby HurricaneBrain » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:28 am

GFS 3hr
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#3089 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:30 am

gfs hr 12

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#3090 Postby bucman1 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:30 am

I know the GFS and Euro are excellent models but why still use the NAM if it stinks?
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#3091 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:30 am

so far the gfs has a even weaker ridge than the 00z.
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Re:

#3092 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:32 am

bucman1 wrote:I know the GFS and Euro are excellent models but why still use the NAM if it stinks?


I post on the previous page about that.
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Re:

#3093 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:33 am

Aric Dunn wrote:so far the gfs has a even weaker ridge than the 00z.

forgive me for being... uneducated.. but that means more steering? no? west? east?
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Re: Re:

#3094 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:34 am

meriland23 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:so far the gfs has a even weaker ridge than the 00z.

forgive me for being... uneducated.. but that means more steering? no? west? east?


more of a weakness possibly some more east shifts. just have to wait and see. at 15 hrs its a little slower than the 00z
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#3095 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:35 am

gfs hr 24

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#3096 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:36 am

HR30...GFS is over E Cuba...
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#3097 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:36 am

24 hours appears slightly to the right. looks like very little time over cuba almost shoots the gap.

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Re:

#3098 Postby pgoss11 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:37 am

Aric Dunn wrote:24 hours appears slightly to the right. looks like very little time over cuba almost shoots the gap.



That would be bad if you don't want an intensifying storm
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3099 Postby caneman » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:38 am

petit_bois wrote:The euro really had a handle on this days ago... amazing.


I'm assuming this is a joke. Several models have been just East, West or over Florida while Euro hasn't. It's been East, West, East, West to as far West as LA. It has been I believe the far most Western outlier so far. Could it still pan out - sure it can but to claim it's had the best handle this far simply isn't true.
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#3100 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:39 am

gfs hr 36 center north of cuba, in water

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