ATL: ISAAC - Models

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Aric Dunn
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#3101 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:39 am

33 hours about 50 miles east of the 00z run well offshore cuba. spent less than 12 hours
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Re:

#3102 Postby pgoss11 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:39 am

meriland23 wrote:gfs hr 36 center north of cuba, in water

http://img684.imageshack.us/img684/8448/natlprmslmsl036t.gif

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Definitely shifted right
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#3103 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:40 am

this thing looks to be heading up the EC of the us?
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#3104 Postby HurricaneBrain » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:41 am

East coast bound
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#3105 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:41 am

HR42 is just off shore near North Central Cuba...moving WNW to NW.
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#3106 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:41 am

42 hours about 75 nne of the 00z run. appears to gaining more latitude and strength
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#3107 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:42 am

nw to wnw north of central cuba at 45hr
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3108 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:43 am

gfs hr48


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#3109 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:43 am

Right over the spine of FL?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3110 Postby tailgater » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:43 am

Well it's past 70W which is where I thought he would start showing his stuff( actually) I thought it would be closer to 75W.
These clips show the how the 5 day cone has progressed though Issac's life so far, seems he likes the southside of the cone, don't go there!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/gr ... _007_0.GIF

I'm thinking he could continue this pattern if he stays unorganized, then once he reaches @75 W really start stacking and then move NW along the south side of Cuba until he reaches @ 88W then turns Northward and then NNE toward Fla. panhandle in response to the next trough. I hope I'm wrong and probably am way off since I don't have any idea what I'm talking about. But what the hey.
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Re:

#3111 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:43 am

HurricaneBrain wrote:East coast bound

this run doesn't show it moving that way...its moving WNW
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3112 Postby ObsessedMiami » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:43 am

Wow. Never a dull moment, huh? Big shift
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3113 Postby JPmia » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:44 am

Aric, weaker ridging causing a more northerly track in the short term?
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#3114 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:45 am

51 hours looks like miami dade county landfall/ upper keys. near a 100 miles nne of 00z run.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3115 Postby HurrMark » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:45 am

From this run, S Florida is not out of the woods...although it probably will only be a cat 1 at that time...
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#3116 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:45 am

HR54 its moving WNW-NW...nearing KeyWest or just E of there...Strengthening....
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Re:

#3117 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:46 am

Aric Dunn wrote:51 hours looks like miami dade county landfall/ upper keys. near a 100 miles nne of 00z run.

ya, but you can see its bending more back NW to WNW...
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Re:

#3118 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:46 am

deltadog03 wrote:HR54 its moving WNW-NW...nearing KeyWest or just E of there...Strengthening....

a little farther east than there.

Image
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Re: Re:

#3119 Postby pgoss11 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:47 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:HR54 its moving WNW-NW...nearing KeyWest or just E of there...Strengthening....

a little farther east than there.

Image

Yikes!! That's quite a shift east!
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Re: Re:

#3120 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:47 am

deltadog03 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:51 hours looks like miami dade county landfall/ upper keys. near a 100 miles nne of 00z run.

ya, but you can see its bending more back NW to WNW...


very slow movement to by the way. that close with such a large system moving that slow. wont matter if it make a direct hit.
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