ATL: ISAAC - Models

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meriland23
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#3121 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:47 am

gfs hr60 (SE florida landfall)

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3122 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:47 am

Landfall Miami 8pm EDT Sunday then WNW-NW across southern Peninsula. I'm not buying it.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3123 Postby HurrMark » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:48 am

Looks like an upper Keys landfall.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3124 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:48 am

wxman57 wrote:Landfall Miami 8pm EDT Sunday then WNW-NW across southern Peninsula. I'm not buying it.

Respectfully, why not?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3125 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:48 am

wxman57 wrote:Landfall Miami 8pm EDT Sunday then WNW-NW across southern Peninsula. I'm not buying it.



i dont either...just seems like to sharp of a turn north to me
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#3126 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:48 am

60 hr landfall upper keys southern tip of florida. a good 100 miles north of 00z run
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#3127 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:48 am

moving west... not wnw on hour 63 across southern tip of fl into gulf.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3128 Postby JPmia » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:49 am

HurrMark wrote:Looks like an upper Keys landfall.


eh, both.. looks like Homestead/Florida City area.
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#3129 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:49 am

HR66 its on the SW coast of FL...or just off shore. strengthening....and moving NW
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3130 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:49 am

wxwatcher1999 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Landfall Miami 8pm EDT Sunday then WNW-NW across southern Peninsula. I'm not buying it.



i dont either...just seems like to sharp of a turn north to me


no sharp turn it has been a steady wnw to nw motion from the beginning. its very plausible given the ridging being weaker atm.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3131 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:50 am

wxman57 wrote:Landfall Miami 8pm EDT Sunday then WNW-NW across southern Peninsula. I'm not buying it.


I agree...I don't think its this far east.....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3132 Postby ObsessedMiami » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:50 am

What is the GFS sensing? Weakened ridging?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3133 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:51 am

ObsessedMiami wrote:What is the GFS sensing? Weakened ridging?

Yes.
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#3134 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:51 am

Aric Dunn wrote:60 hr landfall upper keys southern tip of florida. a good 100 miles north of 00z run

gfs has held its ground now for a few days, impressive if it verifies...lets see how the other heavyweight does later today and see if we can get some consensus, im sure nhc would like a little better agreement before they have to start posting orange and red lines on the coastline...dont forget the financial implications that these watches/warnings have
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3135 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:51 am

gfs hr72Image

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3136 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:52 am

Hurricane Andrew wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Landfall Miami 8pm EDT Sunday then WNW-NW across southern Peninsula. I'm not buying it.

Respectfully, why not?


For one thing, the initial 325-330 deg motion taking the center over central to southeastern Haiti isn't likely.
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#3137 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:52 am

This run looks like a first strike over SW FL, then just offshore and a 2nd hit prolly near PCB to Big Bend....
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#3138 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:53 am

I'm with you guys, not buying this solution.
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#3139 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:53 am

HR78 its just off shore and looks like strengthening....and moving NW to NNW
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#3140 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:54 am

Is the ridge building back in after getting near Southern Florida? Why would it go on a sharp NW turn then suddenly WNW after that?
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