ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Portastorm]

FRIENDLY REMINDER
--------------------

Do not use official or government agency maps for your own mapping/presentation purposes. It is against Storm2K rules. We will delete any and all posts which do so. I'm giving a friendly reminder here. Next time I see it, warnings go out.

[Aric Dunn]

looking much better with each frame. convection now building over the center and a curved band wrapping around.

[tgenius]

Realistically how much rain can we expect in Southern Dade from Isaac, or is it basically going to rain out the weekend totally?

[Frank2]

Yes, I agree - the satellite presentation is much better than yesterday at this time - we'll see where it goes ("Hello, Sebring")...

Frank

P.S. Sebring is my evacution destination (per Katrina, Wilma, etc.)...

P.P.S. I wouldn't be concerned about rainfall tomorrow - Sunday might be another issue, however...

[wxman57]

Realistically how much rain can we expect in Southern Dade from Isaac, or is it basically going to rain out the weekend totally?

Depends on the track, which is uncertain. Using the current NHC forecast track, you'd be on the outer edge of the squalls, meaning a few inches. If Isaac actually tracked near south Florida then you could see 5-10 inches.

[tshizzle]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

looks real good there IMO - has those "streaks" of clouds puffing out on the left side kinda like spiky hair/saw. definitely the healthiest its looked on visible

[uhvjaguars22]

The convection is waning again you agree wxman57 the cold cloud tops look thin ?

[Aric Dunn]

there is no way there are multiple vorts by the time recon gets there. I can see clear low level CU lines that fit perfectly to where the center is right under that small ball of convection

[StarmanHDB]

looks real good there IMO - has those "streaks" of clouds puffing out on the left side kinda like spiky hair/saw. definitely the healthiest its looked on visible

Outflow....it's called outflow and it means the storm is doing exactly what nature needs it to do--expel warm air while inflow replaces it with cool air. Isn't nature awesome?

[ozonepete]

there is no way there are multiple vorts by the time recon gets there. I can see clear low level CU lines that fit perfectly to where the center is right under that small ball of convection

I totally agree. Note also the lower cloud deck has thickened on the northern side finally. Should see some nice convection there shortly.

[ozonepete]

looks real good there IMO - has those "streaks" of clouds puffing out on the left side kinda like spiky hair/saw. definitely the healthiest its looked on visible

Outflow....it's called outflow and it means the storm is doing exactly what nature needs it to do--expel warm air while inflow replaces it with cool air. Isn't nature awesome?

Except it expels cold air at the top and the inflow is very warm humid air from the sea surface.

[climaguy]

The convection is waning again you agree wxman57 the cold cloud tops look thin ?

Some waning in the SE quad but don't let the change in sun angle on the vis fool you. The profiles of the overshooting tops look more dramatic when the sun angle is lower.

[StarmanHDB]

looks real good there IMO - has those "streaks" of clouds puffing out on the left side kinda like spiky hair/saw. definitely the healthiest its looked on visible

Outflow....it's called outflow and it means the storm is doing exactly what nature needs it to do--expel warm air while inflow replaces it with cool air. Isn't nature awesome?

Except it expels cold air at the top and the inflow is very warm humid air from the sea surface.

My bad! Either way, it's awesome how the planet regulates itself. Too bad we're in the way
.

[tolakram]

15 frame live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

My amateur observation is that LLC looks to be just tucked under and distinct. Need more recon!

[Air Force Met]

there is no way there are multiple vorts by the time recon gets there. I can see clear low level CU lines that fit perfectly to where the center is right under that small ball of convection

I agree. Looks like its near 16.5 / 70.5 and on track to move just off the SW tip of Haiti...or at about a 295.

Still on track for my Destin, FL landfall (or 60 miles either side)...so I am obviously fine with the NHC track now.

[Aric Dunn]

there is no way there are multiple vorts by the time recon gets there. I can see clear low level CU lines that fit perfectly to where the center is right under that small ball of convection

I agree. Looks like its near 16.5 / 70.5 and on track to move just off the SW tip of Haiti...or at about a 295.

Still on track for my Destin, FL landfall (or 60 miles either side)...so I am obviously fine with the NHC track now.

yeah if the ridging is any weaker ( per the 12z gfs ) we may be looking at something very similar to it. but when all said and done destin is as good as any for final ladfall.

[wxwatcher1999]

15 frame live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

My amateur observation is that LLC looks to be just tucked under and distinct. Need more recon!

to my untrained eye those last few frames looks like it is moving more west

[Air Force Met]

My bad! Either way, it's awesome how the planet regulates itself. Too bad we're in the way
.

We impact the regulation of the planet on a very small scale...so much so that the planet as a whole barely notices we are here. But this is a discussion for another forum.

[Aric Dunn]

roughly about right there.

[wxman57]

there is no way there are multiple vorts by the time recon gets there. I can see clear low level CU lines that fit perfectly to where the center is right under that small ball of convection

I agree. Looks like its near 16.5 / 70.5 and on track to move just off the SW tip of Haiti...or at about a 295.

Still on track for my Destin, FL landfall (or 60 miles either side)...so I am obviously fine with the NHC track now.

Had to check to see where Destin is - it's right where I'm thinking, Pensacola to Panama City.