ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Like I said earlier, its getting its act together today and should make a run at Hurricane Strength by landfall eastern Cuba. Sat. presentation is the best I've seen it and it's getting closer and closer of being stacked.

[Blown Away]

I agree. Looks like its near 16.5 / 70.5 and on track to move just off the SW tip of Haiti...or at about a 295.

That's dead on, finally a reasonably defined area to follow. Agree w/ the 295 heading, maybe a smidge north of the track already.

[hurricanefloyd5]

The center means changes in the forecast track back to the east right?

[StarmanHDB]

My bad! Either way, it's awesome how the planet regulates itself. Too bad we're in the way
.

We impact the regulation of the planet on a very small scale...so much so that the planet as a whole barely notices we are here. But this is a discussion for another forum.

Oh....I'm not referring to anything political here. I'm speaking of the fact that these storms are doing nature's work and that we mere humans can be adversely affected by them simply because of where we choose to live (thus, too bad we're in the way). I'm actually in complete agreement with you! We are mere specks on the surface of the planet and, as is happening currently, every once in a while the planet sends us not-to-subtle reminders of our place in the greater scheme of things!

[Dean4Storms]

I swear it looks like there is a small ULL trapped right over the center. Upper clouds are spinning out counterclockwise.

Note the small convective top just SW of the center by 80 miles or so getting sheared off to the SE!

[Air Force Met]

My bad! Either way, it's awesome how the planet regulates itself. Too bad we're in the way
.

We impact the regulation of the planet on a very small scale...so much so that the planet as a whole barely notices we are here. But this is a discussion for another forum.

Oh....I'm not referring to anything political here. I'm speaking of the fact that these storms are doing nature's work and that we mere humans can be adversely affected by them simply because of where we choose to live (too bad we're in the way).

Gotcha. Yeah...that's WAY too bad.

Of course...that's also the reason it appears storms have gotten worse. They haven't. They are still just as powerful and make landfall as often as they did 100 years ago. There are just more people living on the coast and have a lot nicer things to tear up. 100 years ago...everyone had to grow a garden to live...and sand isn't real conducive for that.

[Blown Away]

The center means changes in the forecast track back to the east right?

All we know is some of the recent model guidance has shifted towards the east, not sure if the NHC will discount or begin to slide the track back to the east. Time will tell.

IMO, the track will be over the Florida Peninsula before it's all done. That's just me!

[KBBOCA]

Wow. What a difference a day makes. Isaac surely is much easier on the eyes now than this time yesterday. There actually appears to be a center and a clear rotation rather than a rectangular mass of circulating blobs!

And although many of us were really thinking (and quite a few saying here on the board) that the storm might go way west of forecast points (e.g. over Jamaica), right now to my untrained eye it is looking like the storm is following forecast points very well. If so - my HUGE round of applause to the NHC and all the hurricane hunters and others who have worked so hard to try and understand a storm that was being very contrary there for awhile!

Now to pray that although Isaac looks much better that he somehow stays weak because otherwise there are many many people who could suffer in his path.

[Aric Dunn]

last few images you can now clearly see the center it is exposed atm but finally we have a well defined llc. it wont be too long before convection build over top of it and it could make a run at hurricane strength before hati.

[meriland23]

the big question is, when (if) it heads into the gulf, how long will it just..lollygag around or will it even.. if it picks up pace, don't see much time for strengthen, if it lulls around and slowly makes its way.. well..

[hurricanefloyd5]

so a movement to the nw direction and I am happy to see it moving to the nw it brings it abit closer to the wesst coast and near tampa

[Blown Away]

LLC looks like it's going to move on the right side of the forecast track points.

The line and the circle around the LLC were drawn by me and this map in no way should be used as a forecast. Thank you!

[thetraveler]

so a movement to the nw direction and I am happy to see it moving to the nw it brings it abit closer to the wesst coast and near tampa

I am near Sebring Florida working and staying in an RV. The last thing I want is this thing to get closer to Florida... Storms make people say strange things.

[Weatherboy1]

I agree with your center spot Aric. If this jogging more NW or NNW continues, though, that center is going to plow right into some of the tallest mountains in Haiti/DR. If it jogs more westerly, it might dodge them. I am very curious to see how Isaac does when doing battle with land here. If he moves fast enough and a bit more westerly, I'm not expecting much weakening ... and there's an off chance he makes hurricane strength before landfal. If more slowly and more north, he could get ripped apart just as he's finally cranking up. VERY interesting set up to say the least!

Just my opinion, as an amateur, as always.

[climaguy]

http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/2712/isaacsatellite.jpg

LLC looks like it's going to move on the right side of the forecast track points.

The line and the circle around the LLC were drawn by me and this map in no way should be used as a forecast. Thank you!

With virtually all the convective mass to the south of the center, I wouldn't expect to see Isaac tracking a straight line anytime soon and therefore track-watching at any moment is likely to be an exercise in futility. Let's see where that center is in 6 or 12 hours and judge from that.

[tgenius]

All I know is its inevitable for the local Miami news to start going into Hurricane-new mode every 20 seconds if this gets any closer than it is and/or path changes at all.

[ObsessedMiami]

Let's see where that center is in 6 or 12 hours and judge from that.

We said that 24 hours ago. There will be a two pm intermediate advisory, right?

[Aric Dunn]

I thought there was radar out of DR or hati I just cant seem to find it.

[Nikki]

I thought there was radar out of DR or hati I just cant seem to find it.

I could be way off base here, but I thought I read a few pages back it got damaged in the quake?

[Aric Dunn]

I thought there was radar out of DR or hati I just cant seem to find it.

I could be way off base here, but I thought I read a few pages back it got damaged in the quake?

oh well thats no good