Weatherboy1 wrote:Jevo wrote:Weatherboy1 wrote:This run is definitely concerning and should be noted. Doesn't it have additiona NOAA sampling data in it? Or is that the middle of the night cycle? Hmm...
To answer your question there have been flights in and out of the storm most of the morning and the G-IV is going up every 6 hours now taking readings...and the models are now ingesting balloon data from NWS WFOs in FL, GA, AL, MS, and PR. There is now new synoptic data being fed into the models about every 12 hours.... usually the 0z and 12z runs to make the morning and evening advisories
That's what I was wondering about -- the G-IV data. I was wondering if it is being reflected in the 12z runs, including the GFS run we just got, or only once a day (meaning the 0z runs). If the latest data is reflected in this GFS run, then I think it should have more validity. It wouldn't take much of a shift to the east for SE FL to get really nasty weather vs. just some wind and rain. So I'm watching closely. The base of the trough/low in the Eastern Gulf stretches all the way down to about 23N, and that lingering frontal boundary/low around GA/SC seems to me to be enough to create a real weakness for Isaac to shoot into.
the g-iv has not been taking into the 12z data but yesterdays has as well as slew of weather balloons and recon data. there is plenty for the models to use. todays g-iv data will only give an updated look at the the environment just to the north of the system to provide more data for the models to help with the next 24 to 36hrs not to really effect 5 days out. each day there is a gulfstream I believe so dont get too caught up with that there is plenty of data for the models to give a good run.
