ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3161 Postby MHurricanes » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:54 am

Blown Away wrote:
hurricanefloyd5 wrote:The center means changes in the forecast track back to the east right?

All we know is some of the recent model guidance has shifted towards the east, not sure if the NHC will discount or begin to slide the track back to the east. Time will tell.

IMO, the track will be over the Florida Peninsula before it's all done. That's just me! :D


I agree, Blown Away. I believe Joe Bastardi is on to something with his track projection (which has moved west from his earlier Florida east coast track). It won't surprise me if the NHC continues to adjust its track back to the east.

The culprit, according to Bastardi, appears to be the "deep trough off the W coast and ridge in the Rockies," which will trigger a downstream SE US trough.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3162 Postby hcane27 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:54 am

It was . Am not sure that it was ever repaired. Priorities and all that.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3163 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:54 am

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#3164 Postby KBBOCA » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:59 am

Was just noticing the outflow - if I'm looking at the right thing it extends from near Miami in the north down into the Pacific below Costa Rica... wow.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3165 Postby climaguy » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:00 pm

ObsessedMiami wrote:
climaguy wrote:Let's see where that center is in 6 or 12 hours and judge from that.

We said that 24 hours ago. There will be a two pm intermediate advisory, right?


24 hours ago there wasn't a defined center. They were taking means and making guesses. By definition that means no bearing will be accurate. Now there is a defined center that at least appears strong enough to have some continuity moving forward. Let's track that and see where it goes.

When recon gets out there and makes a few passes they'll give us a good indication.
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#3166 Postby WYNweather » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:03 pm

At work did not see Jim C at the news desk at the 7:50 am update. Steph A. Is in Key West. Any body know where in the world Jim C. Aka (the angle of doom) is?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3167 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:07 pm

I've been looking at a 24-hr WV loop that shows an upper low over the Carolinas and a trof extending down into the FL Straits. Winds aloft ahead of this trof are from the southwest. This could induce a NW motion of Isaac over the next 24-36 hours, taking the center closer to south Florida before the ridge builds back to its north and turns it back to the WNW and into the eastern Gulf. Hard to say how strong Isaac might get between now and south FL. Seems to have great outflow now but still it's struggling.

Image
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Re:

#3168 Postby petit_bois » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:07 pm

WYNweather wrote:At work did not see Jim C at the news desk at the 7:50 am update. Steph A. Is in Key West. Any body know where in the world Jim C. Aka (the angle of doom) is?


I heard he was seen in Fairhope Alabama.
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#3169 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:07 pm

what time is recon going out there?
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Re:

#3170 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:08 pm

meriland23 wrote:what time is recon going out there?


Recon just took off, not sure how long the flight is to Isaac.
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Re:

#3171 Postby petit_bois » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:08 pm

meriland23 wrote:what time is recon going out there?



wheels are up!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3172 Postby Bluefrog » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:09 pm

Biloxi Hard Rock Casino ... Jim C. :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3173 Postby MHurricanes » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:09 pm

Blown Away wrote:http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/2712/isaacsatellite.jpg

LLC looks like it's going to move on the right side of the forecast track points.

The line and the circle around the LLC were drawn by me and this map in no way should be used as a forecast. Thank you! :D


It looks like the current track will take Isaac over the southwestern end of Haiti. If Isaac maintains a more northwesterly course, it would not remain over Cuba for as long, leaving it a much stronger storm as it emerges offshore and heads for the Florida Straits.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3174 Postby tgenius » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:10 pm

wxman57 wrote:I've been looking at a 24-hr WV loop that shows an upper low over the Carolinas and a trof extending down into the FL Straits. Winds aloft ahead of this trof are from the southwest. This could induce a NW motion of Isaac over the next 24-36 hours, taking the center closer to south Florida before the ridge builds back to its north and turns it back to the WNW and into the eastern Gulf. Hard to say how strong Isaac might get between now and south FL. Seems to have great outflow now but still it's struggling.


At what point would Isaac start feeling that trof and move it NW? Is this a matter of hours <6 hr or more like 12-24?
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#3175 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:13 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
Coupled with the last two recon and NHC fixes I don't see how you could look at the visable loops and not see a NW or even NNW movement as per the GFS latest run.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3176 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:14 pm

tgenius wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I've been looking at a 24-hr WV loop that shows an upper low over the Carolinas and a trof extending down into the FL Straits. Winds aloft ahead of this trof are from the southwest. This could induce a NW motion of Isaac over the next 24-36 hours, taking the center closer to south Florida before the ridge builds back to its north and turns it back to the WNW and into the eastern Gulf. Hard to say how strong Isaac might get between now and south FL. Seems to have great outflow now but still it's struggling.


At what point would Isaac start feeling that trof and move it NW? Is this a matter of hours <6 hr or more like 12-24?


And if Issac goes through some RI and deepens will it move more to the right?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3177 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:19 pm

Based on visible satellite imagery it seems clear that the motion is NW and maybe even NNW at times. It looks like Port-Au-Prince may take a direct hit...Exactly what they don't need.

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3178 Postby petit_bois » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:21 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Based on visible satellite imagery it seems clear that the motion is NW and maybe even NNW at times. It looks like Port-Au-Prince may take a direct hit...Exactly what they don't need.

SFT


still looks WNW... they will likely still get rain though.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3179 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:24 pm

Image http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

I would say a solid 315 degree heading and to the right of the forecast points.

The line and the circle around the LLC were drawn by me and in no way should be used as a forecast. Thank you! :D
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#3180 Postby Weatherboy1 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:25 pm

I may be wrong, but it sure looks to me like the LLC of Isaac is near or just to the south of the "point" that juts out on the south side of Hispanola between the border of Haiti and the DR. IF that's correct, then Isaac is somewhat north and east of the projected path. I don't like to split hairs because a jog this way or that usually doesn't make much difference. But in this case, any jogs to the N and E of the track put the big metropolitan areas of Southeast FL in nastier and nastier weather. Still skeptical of a direct hit, but watching the trends closely ...
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