ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Keep your eyes peeled to the rapid scan loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

I *think* the LLC is fairly evident now, and convection slowly on the increase.

Latest

17:15Z 1:15PM EDT

http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/784/zztemp.jpg[/img]

http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/2712 ... ellite.jpg
This where you see it tolakram?

My best guess, yes. Can't tell you if there are still vortices around, but that one looks solid to me.

[ozonepete]

I don't know if it matters any, but the weather here in South Louisiana has winds out of the South and storms racing to the North. Looking at some of these graphics you would think it would be the other way around, but it's not. Could this have some implications on the future path of Isaac?

No. that's just typical local summer weather for you guys. You can't infer much at all that way. It is winds in the mid-leveels of the atmosphere that steer these storms; you need forecast models to really figure out what's going on.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products. Follow us on
Twitter

[Vortex]

based on Hi-res Issace continues moving generally NW towards Haiti....I'd imagine recon will find pressures on the order of 995-998mb...The key the next 24 hours is does it ride the spine of Cuba(less likely per 12Zdata) or get into the FL straits increasing the risk to SFL/Keys....Im slightly favoring it emerging off the northern coast thus increasing the threat certainly to the keys and possibly south fl....







Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Blinhart]

Looks like he is still having trouble getting his act completely together. The whole West side looks like it is falling apart, is that because of the interaction with Hispaniola?

[cycloneye]

...ISAAC TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...CENTER APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 71.4W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

[Houstonia]

I don't know if it matters any, but the weather here in South Louisiana has winds out of the South and storms racing to the North. Looking at some of these graphics you would think it would be the other way around, but it's not. Could this have some implications on the future path of Isaac?

You may be getting outflow from OUR storms (Hou/Galv). We are seeing the remnants of that old cold front moving from our northwest out over the Gulf to the southeast. VERY weather, at least to me, here in Houston.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1110 am CDT Friday Aug 24 2012

Update...
morning forecast update.

Discussion...
deep Gulf moisture has moved mainly east of the Houston area with
the main axis oriented from kdri to kbpt to south of kgls.
Strongest storms and heaviest rainfall remains in the coastal
waters of the Upper Texas coast. Still some scattered thunderstorms and rain along the
coastal counties from Matagorda through Galveston counties.
Adjusted probability of precipitation for today to match up with the moisture axis better.
May not see that much activity move or develop inland so probability of precipitation drop
off fairly quickly for areas north of Interstate 10. The rest of
the forecast looks on track. Still keeping an eye on the track for
ts Isaac but looks like the main impact will be from the miss
Delta east to Florida Panhandle.

[Blinhart]

I don't know if it matters any, but the weather here in South Louisiana has winds out of the South and storms racing to the North. Looking at some of these graphics you would think it would be the other way around, but it's not. Could this have some implications on the future path of Isaac?

No. that's just typical local summer weather for you guys. You can't infer much at all that way. It is winds in the mid-leveels of the atmosphere that steer these storms; you need forecast models to really figure out what's going on.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products. Follow us on
Twitter

Ok, I'm just not used to having Gulf Breeze this far in at this time of year. This feels more like October than August, so I was just wondering. In August storms usually form and just meander around and not be moving at a fast pace like they are today. Storms really don't race North unless its a warm front or some kind of front moving North from the Gulf.

[Vortex]

SFL do NOT let your guard down!




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Sanibel]

Ooops. Looking at the loops I'm not sure if it is that far right from NHC track.

[stormgeek]

tweet from Dr. Rick Knabb - director at the National Hurricane center "watches possible, portions of the Florida Keys and/or South Florida Peninsula later. Not sure if TS or hurricane"

[BensonTCwatcher]

Based on current motion I would put this impacting Haiti, landfall at Jacmel or close. The center won't really spend much time over land as this is a narrow part of the island peninsula.

[SouthDadeFish]

IR shows a much uglier storm than visible:

[SouthFLTropics]

Based on current motion I would put this impacting Haiti, landfall at Jacmel or close. The center won't really spend much time over land as this is a narrow part of the island peninsula.

Jacmel looks very possible...Not good because it will put Port-Au-Prince in the dirty side of the storm.

SFT

[Blown Away]

My estimate based on the 2pm advisory. To the right of the forecast points.

This map should not be used in any way as a forecast. Thank you!

[tolakram]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

IR shows a much uglier storm than visible:

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/8430/211ecu.jpg

I could be wrong, but what I think you're seeing is continued re-organization. Similar to when a wave loses almost all convection prior to that big burst that makes it a TD.

Looking at the big picture, though, I'm still not 100% certain the feature identified as the LLC (by me anyway) is not still rotating around a larger circulation.

[BensonTCwatcher]

yes bad news no matter what for Haiti, just the torrentila downpours will be plenty bad. Taking it out further, it could slip east of Gitmo, if we don't get the ridge back in place in time. Whole new ball game in that case. Have to watch and see. The models seem to trending this way i.e. the trough is digging down say to 23N which increasingly deeper than earlier progged.

[ozonepete]

Ok, I'm just not used to having Gulf Breeze this far in at this time of year. This feels more like October than August, so I was just wondering. In August storms usually form and just meander around and not be moving at a fast pace like they are today. Storms really don't race North unless its a warm front or some kind of front moving North from the Gulf.

I can see why you'd say that because the southerly return flow around the bottom of the Bermuda high is a little stronger than usual right now but there aren't any fronts or strong lows in your area now. So still, it doesn't tell you very much that helps in forecasting Isaac.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

IR shows a much uglier storm than visible:

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/8430/211ecu.jpg

I could be wrong, but what I think you're seeing is continued re-organization. Similar to when a wave loses almost all convection prior to that big burst that makes it a TD.

Looking at the big picture, though, I'm still not 100% certain the feature identified as the LLC (by me anyway) is not still rotating around a larger circulation.

Agree, it looks like at least a possible oblong center still kind of rolling like an egg would, that would be throwing off models on tracks. Coudl take 24 hours to work that out?

[Senobia]

Interesting graphic from The Weather Channel:

[SouthDadeFish]

Beautiful curved band forming right over the center: