ATL: ISAAC - Models

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ObsessedMiami
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Re: Re:

#3221 Postby ObsessedMiami » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:48 pm

x-y-no wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
x-y-no wrote:They don't do track updates in the intermediate advisories (beyond the start position, that is) so any shift would be at 5pm.


Fully aware of that.. Just don't think the NHC is buying into these eastern most models. The trend does indeed continue closer to SFL though.


I think whether they buy it will depend to a large extent on whether the euro trends right too. We're into the pretty short term on forecasting the ridge at this point - so if it sees a more easterly weakness too then it's probably real.


My personal opinion is that they have to buy into it at least in the form of watches for SFL peninsula because the window is closing for EOC should the trends continue and Issac shoot the gap as some models have suggested.



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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3222 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:49 pm

You can see the significant NE bend in the Models late in the runs. It's more pronounced than in previous runs.

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3223 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:49 pm

again the initialized ridging by the euro is weaker yet again. might see another east shift.


Image
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Re: Re:

#3224 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:50 pm

Blinhart wrote:


If I remember correctly this is a little to the West of where it was 12 hours ago.


Nah.. it's pretty much the same spot

This is last night's 0z run

Image
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Re: Re:

#3225 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:51 pm

Jevo wrote:
Blinhart wrote:


If I remember correctly this is a little to the West of where it was 12 hours ago.


Nah.. it's pretty much the same spot

This is last night's 0z run

[img]http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/2011/00zhwrf500mbhghtpmslnes.gif[/ig]


but the first half the run was farther north with a landfall in the upper keys or extreme south florida. so in all it was shift right early on with little change end of run.
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#3226 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:55 pm

12Z GFDL clips SW FL before entering again at PCB..
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3227 Postby Blinhart » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:55 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:You can see the significant NE bend in the Models late in the runs. It's more pronounced than in previous runs.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_09


What is going on with the CLIP? doesn't move it over Cuba until right at the Yucatan Channel.

Also looks like if he is a little slower and a little further West he will not be moving much and not moving NE for a while. Just looking at the Spaghetti that is on this map.
Last edited by Blinhart on Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3228 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:56 pm

EURO hr24Image

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3229 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:56 pm

Blinhart wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:You can see the significant NE bend in the Models late in the runs. It's more pronounced than in previous runs.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_09


What is going on with the CLIP? doesn't move it over Cuba until right at the Yucatan Channel.


Climatology Model...Doesn't take into account current conditions, only climatology and past tracks.

SFT
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3230 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:57 pm

Blinhart wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:You can see the significant NE bend in the Models late in the runs. It's more pronounced than in previous runs.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_09


What is going on with the CLIP? doesn't move it over Cuba until right at the Yucatan Channel.


That is not a model, just climatology using past storms in the same area and how they typically have moved.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3231 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:57 pm

Blinhart wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:You can see the significant NE bend in the Models late in the runs. It's more pronounced than in previous runs.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_09


What is going on with the CLIP? doesn't move it over Cuba until right at the Yucatan Channel.

Also looks like if he is a little slower and a little further West he will not be moving much and not moving NE for a while. Just looking at the Spaghetti that is on this map.


Ignore it, it's is a climatological model showing what storms usually do.
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Re:

#3232 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:58 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:12Z GFDL clips SW FL before entering again at PCB..


I think this may be the first of 100 of its past forecasts that I agree with.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3233 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:59 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:That 12z Euro initialization seems to be South and East of the current apparent LLC...Hopefully we can get a good run out of this set.

SFT



agree may take this run with caution....by the way anyone have the latest 12z GFDL yet?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3234 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:59 pm

Does anyone has the 12z GFDL graphic?
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#3235 Postby x-y-no » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:00 pm

Euro a bit right at 24 hours

Image
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#3236 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:00 pm

HR 42 of the euro is over/just off shore of North CEntral/West Central Northern cuba.....Heading towards Key West.
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#3237 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:01 pm

gfdl is also another shift east during the first little change towards end of run.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3238 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:01 pm

Vortex wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:That 12z Euro initialization seems to be South and East of the current apparent LLC...Hopefully we can get a good run out of this set.

SFT



agree may take this run with caution....by the way anyone have the latest 12z GFDL yet?

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3239 Postby x-y-no » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:02 pm

Vortex wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:That 12z Euro initialization seems to be South and East of the current apparent LLC...Hopefully we can get a good run out of this set.

SFT



agree may take this run with caution....by the way anyone have the latest 12z GFDL yet?


Yes, I was suspicious of the initialization of the center too. But the overall initialization looks good so I'm not sure it makes much difference.
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#3240 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:02 pm

Euro over north central Cuba Coast at 48hrs heading WNW
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