ATL: ISAAC - Models

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deltadog03
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#3241 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:02 pm

Just SSE of Key West HR 54.....Strengthening a bit it seems...
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#3242 Postby x-y-no » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:03 pm

euro at 48 hours:

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3243 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:03 pm

Check out the 12Z GFDL at 54 hours :eek:

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Last edited by SouthDadeFish on Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3244 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:03 pm

Remember the initial WAS also 6hr ago.....er...12z this am....NOT current
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3245 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:03 pm

That GFDL would put very bad weather in dade/ broward counties if this verifies.
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#3246 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:03 pm

euro hr48 (is it just me, or does it look to be heading too fast)
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Last edited by meriland23 on Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3247 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:04 pm

Wow, UKMET, GFDL and HWRF all right smack dab over my joint! :eek: :eek:
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#3248 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:04 pm

12Z HWRF +126

Image

12Z HWRF FULL LOOP

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html
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#3249 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:06 pm

by the way this is north of the 00z run by a little bit.
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#3250 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:06 pm

Near Key West at hour 66 moving WNW-NW
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#3251 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:07 pm

this looks like it is moving too fast, or am I seeing things
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#3252 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:09 pm

Heading NW at hour 72...Just west of Key West....this **LOOKS** like its going to be just West of where the GFS is...might dare to say near a Destin/PNS landfall? We shall see
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#3253 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:09 pm

So the Euro remains stubborn in the short term. It definitely appears that the models that do not hug the Cuban coastline and heads closer to mainland S FL want to ramp this thing up right before landfall.
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Re:

#3254 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:09 pm

meriland23 wrote:this looks like it is moving too fast, or am I seeing things

Speed looks ok....
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Re: Re:

#3255 Postby thetruesms » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:10 pm

BigB0882 wrote:That is not a model, just climatology using past storms in the same area and how they typically have moved.
And to head off the inevitable "why do they use it?" question, the skill of the models are relative to CLIPER

wxman57 wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:12Z GFDL clips SW FL before entering again at PCB..


I think this may be the first of 100 of its past forecasts that I agree with.
I mostly had the same reaction when I watched it roll in :lol:
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Re:

#3256 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:10 pm

deltadog03 wrote:Heading NW at hour 72...Just west of Key West....this **LOOKS** like its going to be just West of where the GFS is...might dare to say near a Destin/PNS landfall? We shall see



yep euro north of 00z run and stronger looks like a shift east for gulf coast landfall as well
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#3257 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:11 pm

hr72Image

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3258 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:13 pm

72 hours.

Image
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#3259 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:13 pm

Looks almost verbatim to the 00z if you ask me.
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#3260 Postby bucman1 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:14 pm

Hello Meriland,

Do you have the whole image sequence of the Euro?
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