ATL: ISAAC - Models

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frederic79
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3281 Postby frederic79 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:23 pm

Landfall near Mobile Bay? August 29? The 7 year anniversary of Katrina... :double:
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#3282 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:23 pm

so will this be a trend, or the wiper blade swish of the day?
If Isaac stays over water considerably longer, then we could see RI. Would that shift things even more easterly, or is it simply about ridge strength at this point?
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Re: Re:

#3283 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:23 pm

meriland23 wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:Can anyone see what the pressure (mb) is at landfall?

965/966 mb


Thanks Meriland pheww that's gettin a bit low
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3284 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:23 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Euro is still a bit west. 96hr appears to be heading for west FL panhandle.

[img]http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical500mbSLP096.gif[/mg]


yeah its still the western outlier but this run is still slighty farther east than the 00z.


I thought the 0z had landfall in Florida. I don't see how it could be an East shift to Mobile Bay as that would mean it had landfall in LA at 0z and I do not remember that. Although, in my defense, I have looked at so many model runs the last few days that I can't be held responsible for getting things completely mixed up. lol
Last edited by BigB0882 on Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3285 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:23 pm

yes...Landfall is right around Late Tue Night/Early Wed am..... Near Mobile....Euro looks like it wants to bomb this out at the coast....
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#3286 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:24 pm

Why isnt the euro making the northeast bend at the end of the run like the others do?
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#3287 Postby bucman1 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:24 pm

Is the east trend something you think will continue? Is it possible for Isaac do still ride the coast and enter the Big Bend area?
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Re:

#3288 Postby petit_bois » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:24 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:Can anyone see what the pressure (mb) is at landfall?


I think it's 0 :eek:
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Re: Re:

#3289 Postby thetruesms » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:25 pm

meriland23 wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:Can anyone see what the pressure (mb) is at landfall?

965/966 mb
Yes, at 96 hr. It looks like it's dropped to 963 at 120
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#3290 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:25 pm

this is about.. 50 miles west of 0z run.. and much stronger
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Re: Re:

#3291 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:25 pm

thetruesms wrote:
meriland23 wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:Can anyone see what the pressure (mb) is at landfall?

965/966 mb
Yes, at 96 hr. It looks like it's dropped to 963 at 120

says 966 on the bottom right
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Re:

#3292 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:26 pm

meriland23 wrote:this is about.. 50 miles west of 0z run.. and much stronger


That is what I thought. 50 miles means nothing but interesting to see a model, and a respected one at that, stop shifting East when the others keep inching that way. Didn't the HWRF go West? Maybe the back and forth is not done, after all?
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#3293 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:26 pm

Uh oh we have a west trend now...LOL
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#3294 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:27 pm

WX57, how does this ECM relate to your predictions?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3295 Postby Pearl River » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:27 pm

Over the past couple of days I've noticed that the 0z has been east and 12z has been west.

JMO.
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Re: Re:

#3296 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:28 pm

BigB0882 wrote:
meriland23 wrote:this is about.. 50 miles west of 0z run.. and much stronger


That is what I thought. 50 miles means nothing but interesting to see a model, and a respected one at that, stop shifting East when the others keep inching that way. Didn't the HWRF go West? Maybe the back and forth is not done, after all?

Couple of models went west today, even if just a little.. in fact, I think most latest model runs shifted west in the gulf.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3297 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:28 pm

Well that run of the Euro will keep NOLA on their toes. Kind of scary to think it wouldn't take much of a westward shift to give them serious impacts.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3298 Postby frederic79 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:28 pm

Ok, how concerned should I be? I live on the MS/AL border not far inland. Haven't really bought supplies yet. Should I wait or take the euro seriously. The GFS is way east now, as is most of the models. I don't want to overreact but the euro stubbornly continues to show MS/AL line. Thoughts?
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Re:

#3299 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:29 pm

wxwatcher1999 wrote:Uh oh we have a west trend now...LOL


The first 48 to 72 hours were north of the 00z followed by a 50 miles shift west at 120 hours. not much change on that run but still at least fits with the rest of the models unlike the texas solution from yesterday.
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#3300 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:30 pm

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