ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3261 Postby Weatherboy1 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:00 pm

ozonepete wrote:Here's the topographical map.

the tallest mountains are 8,000 to 10,000 feet. Very disruptive to a TC!


Yes, but it looks like it'll make landfall to the SW of the worst mountains in the middle of the island. Will still disrupt inflow into the core of the storm. But with such a large circulation envelope and a LIKELY landfall to the west of that area, I don't think it will really mess him up. Question is where does he pop out on the other side of the island. Center looks to be a bit to the NE of forecast points, but as always, may just be a wobble. Those wobbles make a lot of differnce to us here in SE FL though. Just my opinion, as an amateur, as always!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3262 Postby VeniceInlet » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:02 pm

Have not posted here since 2005, just wanted to say thanks for the great job here on Isaac, much appreciated. Have been watching the boards for several days now and will continue until the power goes out!
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#3263 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:02 pm

Some of the outer rain bands are starting to show up on the radar out of GITMO. Should have a good look at it over the next 48hrs.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3264 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:05 pm

do you think it is unlikely it would reach cat 4 status? jw
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3265 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:05 pm

Based on visible it appears that Isaac is going to blow by the next forecast point to the right and arrive at it about 6 hours ahead of time. This is significant because the faster he moves the more chance he has to go north before SFLA. JMHO.

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3266 Postby pgoss11 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:07 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Based on visible it appears that Isaac is going to blow by the next forecast point to the right and arrive at it about 6 hours ahead of time. This is significant because the faster he moves the more chance he has to go north before SFLA. JMHO.

SFT

Yeah..just saw that.. just love the surprise element with all these tropical systems! :D
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3267 Postby ozonepete » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:08 pm

Weatherboy1 wrote:
ozonepete wrote:Here's the topographical map.

the tallest mountains are 8,000 to 10,000 feet. Very disruptive to a TC!


Yes, but it looks like it'll make landfall to the SW of the worst mountains in the middle of the island. Will still disrupt inflow into the core of the storm. But with such a large circulation envelope and a LIKELY landfall to the west of that area, I don't think it will really mess him up. Question is where does he pop out on the other side of the island. Center looks to be a bit to the NE of forecast points, but as always, may just be a wobble. Those wobbles make a lot of differnce to us here in SE FL though. Just my opinion, as an amateur, as always!


Good points, wxboy, but remember there's more mountains in eastern Cuba to cross so the disruption will be for 2 days. Although we will have to watch the forward speed. Any higher speeds will cut down on the length of time over land of course.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3268 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:09 pm

Starting to get worried about this down here...
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#3269 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:10 pm

18Z Best Track - up to 55 knots:

AL, 09, 2012082418, , BEST, 0, 168N, 714W, 55, 995, TS
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3270 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:10 pm

jlauderdal wrote:Where is Steve Weagle?--Remember Miami NWS is literally down the hall from NHC, just sayin..


ALL EYES THEN TURN TO TROPICAL STORM ISAAC. ISAAC HAS BEGUN ITS
NORTHWEST TURN AND WILL MOVE OVER HISPANIOLA AND TOWARDS EASTERN
CUBA OVERNIGHT. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO
THE EAST FROM RUNS YESTERDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST
WEST...WITH THE STORM MOVING CLOSE TO THE CURRENT NHC OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK. THE OTHER MODELS NOW BRING THE STORM INTO THE
MIDDLE KEYS OR SOUTH FLORIDA. IN ADDITION...MOST OF THE MODELS
SHOW LITTLE INTERACTION WITH CUBA. THIS COULD BE VERY SIGNIFICANT
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...BECAUSE THE STORM WOULD BE ABLE TO SPEND MUCH
MORE TIME OVER WATER. LOOKING AT THE GLOBAL MODELS AND HURRICANE
MODELS...THEY WOULD BE INDICATING A HURRICANE POSSIBLY MOVING
INTO THE MIDDLE KEYS OR SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING. THIS IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO THERE IS A LOT MORE
UNCERTAINTY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS IS ONLY ONE SUITE OF MODEL
RUNS...BUT THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA LOOKS TO BE INCREASING.


Interesting...
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Re:

#3271 Postby pgoss11 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:10 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:18Z Best Track - up to 55 knots:

AL, 09, 2012082418, , BEST, 0, 168N, 714W, 55, 995, TS

Slow but steady strengthening
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#3272 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:11 pm

this thing is really intesifying..fast,,
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#3273 Postby Senobia » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:11 pm

Steering currents from The Weather Channel:

Image
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#3274 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:11 pm

its may make it to hurricane before hati after all. possibly by the time this recon plane is done.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3275 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:12 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Weatherboy1 wrote:
ozonepete wrote:Here's the topographical map.

the tallest mountains are 8,000 to 10,000 feet. Very disruptive to a TC!


Yes, but it looks like it'll make landfall to the SW of the worst mountains in the middle of the island. Will still disrupt inflow into the core of the storm. But with such a large circulation envelope and a LIKELY landfall to the west of that area, I don't think it will really mess him up. Question is where does he pop out on the other side of the island. Center looks to be a bit to the NE of forecast points, but as always, may just be a wobble. Those wobbles make a lot of differnce to us here in SE FL though. Just my opinion, as an amateur, as always!


Good points, wxboy, but remember there's more mountains in eastern Cuba to cross so the disruption will be for 2 days. Although we will have to watch the forward speed. Any higher speeds will cut down on the length of time over land of course.

If it goes on the NHC cousr from 11:00 AM. I suspect the NHC will shift a little right at 5:00
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3276 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:12 pm

65mph at 5, moving further north my forecast on page 154 is doig well so far, no guarentees for the future though ;)
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Re:

#3277 Postby pgoss11 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:12 pm

meriland23 wrote:this thing is really intesifying..fast,,

If Isaac doesn't have much land interaction with Cuba..things are going to get VERY interesting !
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Re:

#3278 Postby pgoss11 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:13 pm

Senobia wrote:Steering currents from The Weather Channel:

Image

That's quite a big weakness there
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3279 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:16 pm

For those just looking, our 65mph TS according to BT, pushing dry air out or building more convection in the gap!:
Image




Wrapping nicely, too! If we have hurricane by 5, it's pretty much RI(25 kts change).
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3280 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:19 pm

My guess, at 5 a 70mph TS with 993mb with a right track shift.
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