ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Senobia]

Steering currents from The Weather Channel:

That's quite a big weakness there

Yep. I'm wondering where to find info about these Hs receeding or not. Especially the Midwestern one. Does anyone have that?

[meriland23]

what are your guyses personal opinion on MPH on landfall? Just for opinions sake

[Patrick99]

I'll go bearish on hurricane before Haiti and speculate that land interaction/inflow restriction will be enough to keep it in check the next couple hours.

[somethingfunny]

So - the storm is vertically stacked properly now, and it's neither the southern mid-level center or the northern low-level center, right? One center now, it's right in the middle and the two centers moved toward each other to stack up, and now the storm is moving NW, right?

I'm just trying to make sure that I understand what happened between the recon's 15.1°N last night and now.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

what are your guyses personal opinion on MPH on landfall? Just for opinions sake

75-125mph lanfall in Alabama/FL

[meriland23]

what are your guyses personal opinion on MPH on landfall? Just for opinions sake

75-125mph lanfall in Alabama/FL

I was thinking 110-115?

[HurricaneAndrew92]

So - the storm is vertically stacked properly now, and it's neither the southern mid-level center or the northern low-level center, right? One center now, it's right in the middle and the two centers moved toward each other to stack up, and now the storm is moving NW, right?

I'm just trying to make sure that I understand what happened between the recon's 15.1°N last night and now.

Yes, we have one center, but it shifted once earlier, and either went northwest fast or was relocated again, but now BT says 65mph.

[Cryomaniac]

what are your guyses personal opinion on MPH on landfall? Just for opinions sake

Intensity is difficult enough for the models to predict, so I don't even bother guessing lol

[somethingfunny]

So - the storm is vertically stacked properly now, and it's neither the southern mid-level center or the northern low-level center, right? One center now, it's right in the middle and the two centers moved toward each other to stack up, and now the storm is moving NW, right?

I'm just trying to make sure that I understand what happened between the recon's 15.1°N last night and now.

Yes, we have one center, but it shifted once earlier, and either went northwest fast or was relocated again, but now BT says 65mph.

But the mid-level and low-level is completely stacked, correct?

[tolakram]

Correct, as far as we know, and can be generally assumed from the strengthening we're seeing.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Here we go Isaac!

[Blown Away]

what are your guyses personal opinion on MPH on landfall? Just for opinions sake

Direct Landfall Estimates:
Miami: 100 mph
WPB: 115 mph
Keys: 85 mph
Panhandle: 75 mph

Just my opinion only!

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CronkPSU]

what are your guyses personal opinion on MPH on landfall? Just for opinions sake

Direct Landfall Estimates:
Miami: 100 mph
WPB: 115 mph
Keys: 85 mph
Panhandle: 75 mph

Just my opinion only!

are you predicting it skims the west coast the whole trip up to the panhandle?

[cheezyWXguy]

I may be wrong, but it looks like thats a pseudo-eyewall forming. At first I thought it was an overshooting top but I'm pretty sure it's not, considering the overall lack of deep convection and I feel like that's the only reason we can see it all. At its current strength, the presence of such a feature is possible, but if it fires a hot tower in the near future, this feature will likely be obscured.

[SouthFLTropics]

what are your guyses personal opinion on MPH on landfall? Just for opinions sake

Direct Landfall Estimates:
Miami: 100 mph
WPB: 115 mph
Keys: 85 mph
Panhandle: 75 mph

Just my opinion only!

Gee, you're really trying to blow us away up here aren't you BA???

In all seriousness I hate even trying to take a guess at what the windspeed may be. Intensity is so hard to forecast. It may make it to 75 before Hispaniola, Keys/SFLA 75-100, Gulf Coast is anybodies guess at this time. If the conditions are right though my estimates my be too low because the water is boiling out there.

SFT

[tolakram]

With that change in Track (if it is) to the east, How will that effect us on the west coast of FLA? (I live in Tampa that is why i am asking). Thank you as you all are awesome whenever i have questions.

moved from model thread.

[Aric Dunn]

I may be wrong, but it looks like thats a pseudo-eyewall forming. At first I thought it was an overshooting top but I'm pretty sure it's not, considering the overall lack of deep convection and I feel like that's the only reason we can see it all. At its current strength, the presence of such a feature is possible, but if it fires a hot tower in the near future, this feature will likely be obscured.

no, its the outflow expanding over the center. the convection is minimal atm and you can see the low and midlevels racing around underneath that feature. it need to develop need convection in all quads to develop an eye.

[cycloneye]

I posted the Miami NWS discussion of this afternoon at the Sticky thread of preparations etc. If anyone wants to post the discussions from the different NWS offices,go to that thread and post.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113468&p=2260820#p2260820

[Hurricane Alexis]

Could Isaac end up moving just east of the florida pen?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

18Z SHIPS shows a strong CAT 2 in 48-60 hours which I think could easily verify if Issac takes the GFS path.