ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ozonepete]

Could Isaac end up moving just east of the florida pen?

That track is not in the cone but that doesn't mean it couldn't happen. It's a possibility that can't be ruled out yet.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

Is an eyewall trying to form?

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Could Isaac end up moving just east of the florida pen?

So SC landfall, maybe but less than a 1% chance.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Is an eyewall trying to form?

Probably not, but can see that happening soon.

[hurricanes1234]

Is an eyewall trying to form?

Probably not, but can see that happening soon.

Just wanted to know, because the 19:15 UTC image shows a sort of weak eye in there.

[meriland23]

I wish they had a better grip on the intensity. GFS having it at barely a cat 1 while euro at a cat 3... people base whether to leave or not upon the strength a lot of times..

[bucman1]

Hypothetically, if it landfalls in SEFL or the Keys wherewould it go from there if the track was pushed more to the east? Would it still move NW across the state?

[Meteorcane]

Any chance they put Miami-Dade under TS watch tomorrow?

[SouthFLTropics]

Any chance they put Miami-Dade under TS watch tomorrow?

My guess is that you MAY see that in about an hour...If not that then probably by 11:00PM

SFT

[stormgeek]

Any chance they put Miami-Dade under TS watch tomorrow?

IMO - TS or possibly hurricane watch today at 5pm for south florida and the keys.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Whats recon finding in terms of strength, have trouble looking at the recon forum?

[tropicwatch]

I think calling a NW movement might have been a little pre-mature. Granted the center fixes did give the impression of NW movement but I also wander how much of it was center re-location than actual movement.

[wxwatcher1999]

There is still talk that the break in the ridge will not be strong enough to pull Isaac as far north as what the gfs is showing

[wxman57]

Any chance they put Miami-Dade under TS watch tomorrow?

IMO - TS or possibly hurricane watch today at 5pm for south florida and the keys.

I expect TS conditions in south Florida within 48 hrs now and possible hurricane conditions in a little over 48 hrs, so a TS/H watch is in order for the next advisory.

[cheezyWXguy]

Is an eyewall trying to form?

The keyword in your post is "trying" and to that, I say yes. As I said in a previous post, based on its current intensity I believe it is trying and there's likely a convective band trying to set up around the center of the storm. However, with the lack of deep convection in the storm atm, its hard to tell if this feature is genuinely an eyewall or not. It will likely be obscured if deeper convection refires near the center.

[wxwatcher1999]

I think calling a NW movement might have been a little pre-mature. Granted the center fixes did give the impression of NW movement but I also wander how much of was center re-location than actual movement.

Do we not have a NW movement?...I'm confused now

[SouthFLTropics]

I think calling a NW movement might have been a little pre-mature. Granted the center fixes did give the impression of NW movement but I also wander how much of was center re-location than actual movement.

I think the mean movement is to the NW or as stated in the 2:00PM advisory 305. With that being said it is common to see these systems stairstep their way to the NW. The dance between Cuba and Haiti is what's coming up and is going to make all the difference in the world down the road.

SFT

[ozonepete]

Is an eyewall trying to form?

The keyword in your post is "trying" and to that, I say yes. As I said in a previous post, based on its current intensity I believe it is trying and there's likely a convective band trying to set up around the center of the storm. However, with the lack of deep convection in the storm atm, its hard to tell if this feature is genuinely an eyewall or not. It will likely be obscured if deeper convection refires near the center.

Too late. Too much land interaction now.

[Weatherboy1]

Could Isaac end up moving just east of the florida pen?

This is POSSIBLE. But I think it's unlikely. While some models have shifted east in the early part of the forecast, they (generally) haven't shifted that far east. Just my opinion, as an amateur, based on what I'm seeing.

[VeniceInlet]

Will there be a surge prediction for the west coast of FL snd upper gulf coast that correlates with the 3 day NHC track? I am concerned with surge since this will be a large storm and could intensify mid-Gulf, as I am just 1 mile from the GOM. I am certain I am not the only one worried about this...