ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, i need your hypothesis for the Tampa Bay area?

it all depends on track no one can give a definite answer. regardless there will be lots of wind a rain. tampa being on the west coast wont likely take a direct from the ocean to land hit more it might ride the coast which would keep it weaker. too early to say yet. after it leaves the islands we will know more and just like with charlie and little wobble at that angle to the coast would take it farther away or bring it inland.

[MidnightRain]

Isaac may be vertically stacked now but it is looking pretty rough. Cloud tops continue to warm and it has nothing close to the deep convection of the past few days...which would be great news for Haiti...

Recon continues to find a dropping pressure, I'm sure the convection/appearance will respond in time.

[LowndesCoFire]

Weather Channel guys just said they don't expect the cone to shift at all at 5pm.

The cone has to shift to the right. The NHC track is now a left outlier.

My personal opinion: I think the Weather Channel will encompass as many people as they can for ratings purposes as long as possible...before they tell hundreds of thousands of viewers 'alright folks, cone has shifted, proceed with changing the channel'. At lunch they consistently showed the GFS model because it raked across FL. Again, my 2 cents!!

[Dean4Storms]

It's cranking folks, good pressure drop.

Has that comma look now........

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... m8vis.html

[senorpepr]

GOES-14 is running 1-minute scans... currently focused on Isaac: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/

[alienstorm]

Holy cow! GOES-14 brought out of storage and running 1-min data until October, currently focused on Isaac. Check... fb.me/sXlNJO4n

[stephen23]

Is that the center now that you can see on wv loops?

[Aric Dunn]

it sure does have a very well pronounced outflow. does not get much better than that.

[LowndesCoFire]

Has anyone seen the forecast at hurricanealley.net? They show the NHC forecast but continue to show their own forecast still taking this to LA/MS.

I know the west track is possible, but is that track that much of a possibility?

Edit to include link: http://www.hurricanealley.net/ATLCA.htm

[SouthFLTropics]

Remember that wind speeds tend to always increase following the pressure drops...I would look for higher wind speeds in recon readings over the next 6 hours if the pressure continues to fall. Pressure drops first and then the winds pickup second.

SFT

[brunota2003]

Remember that wind speeds tend to always increase following the pressure drops...I would look for higher wind speeds in recon readings over the next 6 hours if the pressure continues to fall. Pressure drops first and then the winds pickup second.

SFT

And with the pressure falling, more air has to be taken in to "equalize" everything, which means convection should start building.

[PTrackerLA]

GOES-14 is running 1-minute scans... currently focused on Isaac: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/

Wow thanks for this! I thought there was something wrong with the loop only showing a few frames then I looked closely and could see how real time it was! Never seen this before, really cool.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Folks, I am going to have a new kind of forecast I post. it will have three codes.

YELLOW: An upgrade to red is likely.
RED: Winds of 60 or more miles per hour are possible, and or Heavy, Flooding rains, as well as surge.
PURPLE: Winds could exceed 96 miles per hour, with widespread damage expected.

These alerts will be issued per county, or for example, The Western Keys.

[SouthDadeFish]

Not much in the way of deep convection...

[JPmia]

GOES-14 is running 1-minute scans... currently focused on Isaac: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/

Now that is some nice visible imagery.. never seen this much detail before.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Can someone post a GOES 14 image? I am on my iPad, no flash.

[KWT]

It does look very good right now and that is reflected in a decent pressure drop over the last 4-6hrs.

Motion has gone from NW/NNW to maybe a little shy of WNW again, heading towards the Western part of Haiti which is a little flatter.

[WeatherOrKnot]

Weather Channel guys just said they don't expect the cone to shift at all at 5pm.

The cone has to shift to the right. The NHC track is now a left outlier.

Jim Cantore again saying that he doesn't think the track will shift at all. Will be interesting to see what happens at 5pm.

[SouthFLTropics]

This is just a thought but look for a possible center relocation to the North or even Northeast between Cuba and Haiti if the circulation gets disrupted by the mountains at all. The reason I say this is because the heaviest convection is off to the East and Northeast right now and will be wrapping around. The center may jump under the heaviest convection if it gets disrupted. Just a thought.

SFT

[Stormcenter]

One thing for sure is that it seems to be expanding in size. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html