ATL: ISAAC - Models

[SunnyThoughts]

Moving WNW and NW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Well one thing is for sure, we can definitely see where the center is now.

[petit_bois]

What?? The GFS has been by far the most consistant model with this storm. The Euro has shifted way east already.

72 hours ago euro had isaac right where it is now.... GFS had it in the peaks of Haiti.
euro has been VERY accurate 72-96hrs our... none of the others are close.

[Dean4Storms]

I think it will follow more of the Euro path once it hits Cuba due to the weakening.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

My forecast, this or a little west is my guess:

[LaBreeze]

I think it will follow more of the Euro path once it hits Cuba due to the weakening.

I've been away from the boards for a while.... what is the Euro path at this time?

[petit_bois]

I think it will follow more of the Euro path once it hits Cuba due to the weakening.

I've been away from the boards for a while.... what is the Euro path at this time?

Grand Bay / Pascagoula

[artist]

Dr. Tallapragada presented a seminar on “Advancements to NCEP Operational HWRF Modeling System for improved intensity prediction skills”

http://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2012/08/24 ... gust-2012/

Some interesting info regarding improvements to the HWRF model
just posted by the hurricane hunters.

[Jevo]

My forecast, this or a little west is my guess:

I love the map from 1755.... A 2012 map takes your line right into Miami.... They didnt have google Earth back then

Seriously though I can agree with that based on the 12Z model cycle

[Portastorm]

It's ok HurricaneAndrew92 ... just tell 'em that the map is fine because the landmasses haven't changed!

Meanwhile, for anyone who wants to do their own maps ... we have a resource for you. Check this out please:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113481&hilit=

[caneman]

Moving WNW and NW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Well one thing is for sure, we can definitely see where the center is now.

Moving WNW and NW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Well one thing is for sure, we can definitely see where the center is now.

What?? The GFS has been by far the most consistant model with this storm. The Euro has shifted way east already.

72 hours ago euro had isaac right where it is now.... GFS had it in the peaks of Haiti.
euro has been VERY accurate 72-96hrs our... none of the others are close.

Umm, you seem to forget to mention that the 5+ day that the Euro has swung way back and forth to as far West as La. Long term and not as dramatic swings I would say GFS has done best.

[Jevo]

18Z NAM +45

[Blinhart]

Moving WNW and NW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Well one thing is for sure, we can definitely see where the center is now.

Moving WNW and NW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Well one thing is for sure, we can definitely see where the center is now.

What?? The GFS has been by far the most consistant model with this storm. The Euro has shifted way east already.

72 hours ago euro had isaac right where it is now.... GFS had it in the peaks of Haiti.
euro has been VERY accurate 72-96hrs our... none of the others are close.

Umm, you seem to forget to mention that the 5+ day that the Euro has swung way back and forth to as far West as La. Long term and not as dramatic swings I would say GFS has done best.

I think he isn't talking about the current ending model, but where the storm is in relation to what the Euro said 3 days ago.

[Hurricane Andrew]

NAM thru 45 is a little North.

[PTPatrick]

wow, nam just dropped it west/wsw in the 51 hr time frame from miami...

[brunota2003]

BTW...there is another G-IV flight today...and they are supposed to sample similar areas to yesterday and around the storm...so the 00Z models again tonight will have lots of fresh data!

[sfwx]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

VALID 12Z MON AUG 27 2012 - 12Z FRI AUG 31 2012

...ISAAC EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID-SOUTH BY NEXT FRIDAY...



TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAAC
======================
THE 06Z/12Z GFS AND 12Z CANADIAN RECURVE THE SYSTEM QUICKER
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE, WHILE THE
00Z/12Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW STRONGER RIDGING ACROSS
THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM ON A SLOWER AND MORE
WESTERLY TRAJECTORY. THE QUICKER SOLUTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS
THE PREFERRED MODEL BLEND DROPS ENERGY FROM THE WESTERLIES AROUND
THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF ISAAC, CLOSING OFF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS TEXAS BY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS DEVELOPMENT WOULD
EFFECTIVELY SHIFT THE COL IN THE STEERING PATTERN SO FAR SOUTH
THAT ISAAC WOULD HAVE LITTLE CHOICE BUT TO RECURVE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, INITIALLY LURED BY A BREAK IN
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY (SIMILAR TO DEBBY
IN LATE JUNE BUT FARTHER TO THE WEST). HEAVY CORE RAINFALL WITH
AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 8-9 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA/THE FLORIDA KEYS/THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH THE SYSTEM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING PER THE 15Z NHC TRACK, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-SOUTH
BY NEXT FRIDAY NEAR ITS TRACK, ITS DRAPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST, AND WITHIN ITS MAIN INFLOW BAND FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO ON ITS EASTERN SIDE. LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12-16 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE BOTH WITHIN ITS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) AND WHERE
ITS MAIN INFLOW BAND SETS UP AND PIVOTS, WHICH COULD BE AS FAR
EAST AS GEORGIA. THE CURRENT SIZE AND FORECAST TRACK FOR ISAAC
RESEMBLE HURRICANE DENNIS OF 2005, THOUGH SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST
AFTER LANDFALL. CENTRAL GEORGIA REMAINS IN AN EXCEPTIONAL,
LONG-DURATION DROUGHT SO THEY COULD USE THE RAINFALL. NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA WERE SATURATED FROM BERYL AND DEBBY
AS WELL AS SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN RAINFALL EVENTS DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, SO THE RAIN WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC IN THAT AREA.

MIDWEST
=======






ROTH

[Jevo]

The NAM pushes the storm all over the gulf, but the synoptic setup is pretty much the same.. here is the 18Z +72 sending it Due West to Mexico from the +45

[Hurricane Andrew]

Does gain some lat by H 84.

[BigB0882]

Oh you silly silly Nam.

[Meteorcane]

Lol NAM pulls a reverse Wilma, but that's why it's only used (in T.C. forecasting) for synoptics.