ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

NHC now has movement at a solid NW at 315 degrees at 14 knots...Also included in the TS Watch is Florida Bay, Lake Okeechobee, and west coast from Bonita Beach southward.

SFT

[WeatherGuesser]

From the 5PM

ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN HAITI
THIS EVENING...MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA ON SATURDAY...
MOVE NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPROACH THE
FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.

[otowntiger]

Most recent microwave pass:


Improved banding, but lacking very deep convection.

Yep. Still not very impressive. I'll wager that it may never be impressive. Just my humble amateur opinion don't depend on what I say.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Up to 65mph and 994mb!

[SunnyThoughts]

Also from the 5pm

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.


Man I feel so bad for those people in Haiti. They said earlier on TWC that there are still 400,000 people living in tents.

[tolakram]

30 frame live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

You can see the convection fading near the center.

[WeatherOrKnot]

Why didn't the track move at all even though the models shifted east?

[wxwatcher1999]

Why didn't the track move at all even though the models shifted east?

I dont think the NHC is buying into the far east models just yet

[ObsessedMiami]

Browsed schools making a decision tomorrow re: Monday. Miami-Dade will make a decision " this weekend" per WSVN Miami

[Hurricane Andrew]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
My new forecast.
0 Hours, 65 mph.
12 mph, emerging over Windward Passege, 60mph.
24 Hours, Over Western Cuba, 60 mph.
48 Hours, Approaching Keys, 60 mph.
72 mph, Gulf, 70mph.
96 Hours, Landfall, A little east of Fl/Al border, 90mph.
I would love to hear your comments/questions!

[HurricaneAndrew92]

My track:

[SouthFLTropics]

Why didn't the track move at all even though the models shifted east?

Track did shift East some...I got an update on my iPhone from WPTV that a portion of Palm Beach County is back in the error cone. I'm sure that is going to make Mr. Weagle feel real good.

SFT

[tolakram]

Why didn't the track move at all even though the models shifted east?

It did shift. Compare images. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/gr ... p_5W.shtml

The NHC has to make decisions based on historical model accuracy and consistency. I have to imagine they want to see what the next runs of the GFS and Euro do before committing to a big change. Many times both models will keep waving back and forth.

[Aric Dunn]

here toggle last two frames you can see it made a decent shift right now only over a little of eastern cuba and now essentially matching the gfs up the to keys they more in line gfdl or hwrf up to landfall in the panhandle

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[SouthFLTropics]

Why didn't the track move at all even though the models shifted east?

It did shift. Compare images. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/gr ... p_5W.shtml

The NHC has to make decisions based on historical model accuracy and consistency. I have to imagine they want to see what the next runs of the GFS and Euro do before committing to a big change. Many times both models will keep waving back and forth.

My thoughts exactly tolakram...I think they are waiting to see what the 18z and 00z runs show as well as see what condition Isaac is in when he gets north of the islands and where exactly he is when that happens. The GFS is good and has performed well but they are still putting some weight into the Euro.

SFT

[bucman1]

Do you see anything that might make it run up the west coast?

[jlauderdal]

Why didn't the track move at all even though the models shifted east?

they came a little east, they rarely make the type of changes we do on the board...they moved it a bit east, will come further at 11 if the modeling continues the trend or leave it alone. at this point we have a decent track, they have issued watches and will upgrade if needed, now the name of the game is going to be intensity and that is going to be very difficult with land interaction and then the straits..it is going to be really interesting to see what effect land will have..weaker systems tend to have less disuption but isaac...lots of variables at play here...we have seen centers bounce off land massess(ike off the south coast of jamiaca?) to and that could happen...wait and see approach here

[artist]

I think the confusion here is also the fact there are watches outside the cone. The cone is confusing, as it is simply a line with the rate of error in miles for the center on either side at that particular timeframe- such as 12, 24, 36, 48, hours, etc. That means that if the center (eye) of the storm were to travel to the outer line of the cone, etc. then those outside the cone would see the effects of hurricane force winds, possibly or tropical storm force, etc. Whatever the storm happens to be at that point. I hope this makes sense.
An example, here in Palm Beach county we are actaully just outside the cone yet we are already under a tropical storm watch.

[Meteorcane]

I think the confusion here is also the fact there are watches outside the cone. The cone is confusing, as it is simply a line with the rate of error in miles for the center on either side at that particular timeframe- such as 12, 24, 36, 48, hours, etc. That means that if the center (eye) of the storm were to travel to the outer line of the cone, etc. then those outside the cone would see the effects of hurricane force winds, possibly or tropical storm force, etc. Whatever the storm happens to be at that point. I hope this makes sense.
An example, here in Palm Beach county we are actaully just outside the cone yet we are already under a tropical storm watch.

Yeah the cone is not an "impacts cone", but as mentioned before an indication of average trackerror at various points in time. Wind radii would perform the impacts function better.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think the confusion here is also the fact there are watches outside the cone. The cone is confusing, as it is simply a line with the rate of error in miles for the center on either side at that particular timeframe- such as 12, 24, 36, 48, hours, etc. That means that if the center (eye) of the storm were to travel to the outer line of the cone, etc. then those outside the cone would see the effects of hurricane force winds, possibly or tropical storm force, etc. Whatever the storm happens to be at that point. I hope this makes sense.
An example, here in Palm Beach county we are actaully just outside the cone yet we are already under a tropical storm watch.

This is correct...The outer line of the cone is the margin of error where the CENTER of the storm could go. So in essence if the center were to follow the right side of the current error cone and if the storm were a hurricane then all of the East coast could potentially see hurricane conditions. As it is right now it is only a tropical storm hence the tropical storm warning. The NHC was careful to point out in the 5:00PM package though that at some point the TS watch could be upgraded to a hurricane watch.

SFT