ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

CAntore speaking on TWC about a CDO perhaps trying to form. Not set in stone...but possible.

[ObsessedMiami]

I think the confusion here is also the fact there are watches outside the cone. The cone is confusing, as it is simply a line with the rate of error in miles for the center on either side at that particular timeframe- such as 12, 24, 36, 48, hours, etc. That means that if the center (eye) of the storm were to travel to the outer line of the cone, etc. then those outside the cone would see the effects of hurricane force winds, possibly or tropical storm force, etc. Whatever the storm happens to be at that point. I hope this makes sense.
An example, here in Palm Beach county we are actaully just outside the cone yet we are already under a tropical storm watch.

Bryan Norcross did a good job on TWC explaining that TS force winds would basically extend all acrossthe entire peninsula of FL if it followed the GFS track, not just affecting "the cone"

[brunota2003]

I think the confusion here is also the fact there are watches outside the cone. The cone is confusing, as it is simply a line with the rate of error in miles for the center on either side at that particular timeframe- such as 12, 24, 36, 48, hours, etc. That means that if the center (eye) of the storm were to travel to the outer line of the cone, etc. then those outside the cone would see the effects of hurricane force winds, possibly or tropical storm force, etc. Whatever the storm happens to be at that point. I hope this makes sense.
An example, here in Palm Beach county we are actaully just outside the cone yet we are already under a tropical storm watch.

Yeah the cone is not an "impacts cone" Wind radii would perform that function better.

I'll be creating another one of those this evening (posted one back on either Tuesday or Wednesday I think it was). I don't think it'll get the real "impact" threat out there atm because there is so much uncertainty, especially out to 120 hours.

[SunnyThoughts]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES2 ... 1mNc2y.jpg

[robbielyn]

Can someone please tell me what are the implications of the gulf's instability being below normal? Also I'm concerned about the dry air ingestion all the way into the gulf. Thinking this won't bomb because of this and shear. It may never get past ts status after crossing Cuba even with high sst 's due to all that dry air entrainment.

[chrisjslucia]

Some initial, and impressive, photos from the DR as Isaac reaches.

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/domrep.shtml

[Aric Dunn]

some convection finally starting build around the center. lets see if it can build

[Portastorm]

Can someone please tell me what are the implications of the gulf's instability being below normal? Also I'm concerned about the dry air ingestion all the way into the gulf. Thinking this won't bomb because of this and shear. It may never get past ts status after crossing Cuba even with high sst 's due to all that dry air entrainment.

I believe the speculation was that it *may* limit Isaac's ability to rapidly intensify as it draws closer to the northern Gulf coast.

[Ivanhater]

It is interesting to note that the steering for Isaac is more dependent on the ridge to its east...this is not a case with a trough coming in blocking any progression westward...how far west does the ridge to Isaac's east extend will dictate where he will go...Western Florida panhandle looks like a good bet right now

[artist]

I am posting this where I can so people make themselves aware, if they don't already know -

important info for everyone to remember -
(brought this up from another thread)
artist wrote:

I think the confusion here is also the fact there are watches outside the cone. The cone is confusing, as it is simply a line with the rate of error in miles for the center on either side at that particular timeframe- such as 12, 24, 36, 48, hours, etc. That means that if the center (eye) of the storm were to travel to the outer line of the cone, etc. then those outside the cone would see the effects of hurricane force winds, possibly or tropical storm force, etc. Whatever the storm happens to be at that point. I hope this makes sense.
An example, here in Palm Beach county we are actaully just outside the cone yet we are already under a tropical storm watch.

SouthFLTropics Post subject: Re:Posted: Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:22 pm
Category 5
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 9:04 am
Posts: 1199
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida artist wrote:

This is correct...The outer line of the cone is the margin of error where the CENTER of the storm could go. So in essence if the center were to follow the right side of the current error cone and if the storm were a hurricane then all of the East coast could potentially see hurricane conditions. As it is right now it is only a tropical storm hence the tropical storm warning. The NHC was careful to point out in the 5:00PM package though that at some point the TS watch could be upgraded to a hurricane watch.

[brunota2003]

some convection finally starting build around the center. lets see if it can build

Yep...one storm to the north of the COC is building, and one to the south is just forming. Though it looks like that large, deep band way off to the NE/E/SE is not helping Isaac, and is probably drawing moisture/energy away.

[ColinDelia]

I think the confusion here is also the fact there are watches outside the cone. The cone is confusing, as it is simply a line with the rate of error in miles for the center on either side at that particular timeframe- such as 12, 24, 36, 48, hours, etc. That means that if the center (eye) of the storm were to travel to the outer line of the cone, etc. then those outside the cone would see the effects of hurricane force winds, possibly or tropical storm force, etc. Whatever the storm happens to be at that point. I hope this makes sense.
An example, here in Palm Beach county we are actaully just outside the cone yet we are already under a tropical storm watch.

Yeah the cone is not an "impacts cone", but as mentioned before an indication of average trackerror at various points in time. Wind radii would perform the impacts function better.

Can look at Tropical Storm Wind Speed Probabilities for "impact"
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 0#contents

[tolakram]

latest, 21:25Z (5:25 PM EDT)

[Aric Dunn]

latest image showing some convection starting in all quads could be the beginnings a big burst of convection. wont really have to make it to hurricane now but...

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Strengthen 20kts in 24 hours, lets see if it strengthens another 10 before reaching cuba...(aka low end cat 1).

[SunnyThoughts]

Sat pic above is the one that Jim Cantore showed a few minutes ago...along with the ir...saying its possible he's trying to build a cdo.

[jeff]

I think the confusion here is also the fact there are watches outside the cone. The cone is confusing, as it is simply a line with the rate of error in miles for the center on either side at that particular timeframe- such as 12, 24, 36, 48, hours, etc. That means that if the center (eye) of the storm were to travel to the outer line of the cone, etc. then those outside the cone would see the effects of hurricane force winds, possibly or tropical storm force, etc. Whatever the storm happens to be at that point. I hope this makes sense.
An example, here in Palm Beach county we are actaully just outside the cone yet we are already under a tropical storm watch.

Bryan Norcross did a good job on TWC explaining that TS force winds would basically extend all acrossthe entire peninsula of FL if it followed the GFS track, not just affecting "the cone"

The "forecast" cone has nothing to do with the area of TS or Hurricane force winds. The cone does not show where and how severe impacts will be only the possible error out in time of the forecast track.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Can see that spot in infared...heard TWC literally broadcasting 24/7 bout Isaac, they usually stop at 5:30 but they are continuing...hm..?

[JamesCaneTracker]

Recon Data is now indicating that Isaac can now see! lol

L. OPEN WEST
M. C16

MAX FL WIND 70 KT E QUAD 18:21:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C 251 / 19 NM FROM FL CNTR
RAGGED EYE PRESENTATION ON RADAR

[SunnyThoughts]

Recon Data is now indicating that Isaac can now see! lol

L. OPEN WEST
M. C16

MAX FL WIND 70 KT E QUAD 18:21:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C 251 / 19 NM FROM FL CNTR
RAGGED EYE PRESENTATION ON RADAR

Definitely had a feeling that was coming, considering that satellite view.