ATL: ISAAC - Models

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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3381 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:43 pm

BTW...18Z GFS appears to be even further north off of the Cuban coast than the 12z was at 33 hours...

But I guess that doesn't matter since it's the 18z... :na: j/k

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3382 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:44 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:BTW...18Z GFS appears to be even further north off of the Cuban coast than the 12z was at 33 hours...

But I guess that doesn't matter since it's the 18z... :na: j/k

SFT


well its not surprising quite a few of the 12z ensemble members went up the east coast of Florida.
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#3383 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:44 pm

The NAM has about as much credibility as the CLIP model and the XTRP model in terms of tropical cyclone prediction
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3384 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:45 pm

Is the NAM even a tropical model?
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#3385 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:46 pm

ncep site is not updating the 18z ..
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3386 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:47 pm

GFS-48 Hours - Landfall Key Largo/Florida City

SFT
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#3387 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:49 pm

HR 54 its over Key West
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Re:

#3388 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:50 pm

deltadog03 wrote:HR 54 its over Key West


Where are you seeing that Delta...What I'm looking at has it over extreme SW Florida at HR 54.

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3389 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:51 pm

18Z INITIALIZED

Image'

18Z +24

Image

18Z +48

Image
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Re: Re:

#3390 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:51 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:HR 54 its over Key West


Where are you seeing that Delta...What I'm looking at has it over extreme SW Florida at HR 54.

SFT

Its close...maybe SW tip of FL?
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#3391 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:52 pm

Maybe a SMIDGGGE further West this run...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3392 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:52 pm

Ridge opens up, starts to haul north, then bam, stops and turns left, with a much slower forward speed?
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#3393 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:52 pm

18Z GFS +54

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3394 Postby Portastorm » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:53 pm

The old adage about the 18z model runs being "garbage" is no longer accurate. I would be very careful to assume as much. Take a look, for example, at the recent model quality scores. You will see here that the 18z GFS is only a hair less reliable than the more highly thought of 0z GFS run.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html4x/acz5.html
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3395 Postby Meteorcane » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:53 pm

Looks similar to 12z some good run to run consistency with the gfs. Real key is time spent over Cuba, because conditions in the far western atlantic would be conductive to strengthening (probably moreso than the Gulf).
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3396 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:53 pm

That 18Z GFS run is notable in that the center is only over land very briefly (as far as the islands are concerned), and basically no Cuba traversal.
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#3397 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:55 pm

GFS really starting to strengthen at hour 72....OFFSHORE...
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#3398 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:56 pm

18Z GFS +60

Image

18Z GFS +72

Image
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#3399 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:56 pm

The models continue to want to really crank it up once it leaves Cuba and heads for SFL. Not sure I buy that. Those mountains really like to disrupt the core of storms. But with the consensus on intensification during this window, it has to be taken seriously. (Just my opinion, not a professional forecast.)
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3400 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:59 pm

Looks like a 75-mile or so shift west...
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