ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Meteorcane]

The models continue to want to really crank it up once it leaves Cuba and heads for SFL. Not sure I buy that. Those mountains really like to disrupt the core of storms. But with the consensus on intensification during this window, it has to be taken seriously. (Just my opinion, not a professional forecast.)

It really depends if it rides the spine of Cuba (like the NHC track or moves north than west, consequently giving it access to the very warm waters near the Bahamas (also I believe an ULAC is in the area which should provide good outflow. I am unsure of Stability in that region but based on what I am seeing fire up today (more than typical sea breeze activity) I would imagine it is somewhat unstable (there is also the trough would could be enhancing the precipitation).

[Jevo]

18Z GFS +87

[Jevo]

18Z GFS +93 LANDFALL

[MidnightRain]

Did this run have the new G4 date?

[PTrackerLA]

That's actually more like a 150 mile shift west at final landfall @ Gulf Shores as compared to the 18z. Interesting..

[Aric Dunn]

Did this run have the new G4 date?

no. just same old data from the 12z. just a re run.

[brunota2003]

That track would be so devastating...there is plenty of time for the large fetch to push up water into the Big Bend area, and surge flooding would be bad from Mississippi/Alabama all the way eastward!

[deltadog03]

THE 18Z GFS, the last 2 days show a landfall near Mobile....Its been the only runs...I am still thinking this is going in around destin/pcb...

[Hurricane Andrew]

We shall see what the 0z runs say.

[Meteorcane]

Yeah a bit of a shift west in final landfall point, really at this point the final landfall will probably oscillate somewhere around Pascagoula to Pensacola for a while until the time period shortens. Really everyone on the North Gulf coast needs to be alert, because most models show it reaching Cat1-2 strength before making landfall, which is certainly strong enough to cause substantial damage.

[Portastorm]

Did this run have the new G4 date?

no. just same old data from the 12z. just a re run.

Actually, that is not accurate. Each cycle does include some new data ... granted, the amount of data ingested differs.

[ATCcane]

Looks like a stall or even a slow west drift after landfall.

[ColdFusion]

Shows it making landfall @ 90 hours, and then not moving much even @ 114hrs.

Spinning on top of Mobile, just on shore, for a full 24 hours.

That would be brutal.

[Aric Dunn]

Did this run have the new G4 date?

no. just same old data from the 12z. just a re run.

Actually, that is not accurate. Each cycle does include some new data ... granted, the amount of data ingested differs.

yeah they sometimes update position and any observations. but its typically minimal.

[SouthFLTropics]

The North GOM Coast landfall appears to have a verrrrry slow mover on this run of the GFS. I'm not sure it's going to loop around to the NE. May get shunted back west. Almost appears to camp out over Pcola and Mobile for quite some time. Would be a big flooding event if that happens I would have to imagine.

SFT

[Blinhart]

Well I know the people on TWC stated everyone from the Texas Coast to Miami should stay vigilant. So evidently they aren't even sure themselves on where this is going.

[rainstorm]

if it takes that track i think it will be stronger than shown.

[ROCK]

18z BIG shift west....towards the EURO....interesting....

[SouthFLTropics]

Shows it making landfall @ 90 hours, and then not moving much even @ 114hrs.

Spinning on top of Mobile, just on shore, for a full 24 hours.

That would be brutal.

Still there at 132 hours...That would be epic rainfall into the Southeast. Would kill the drought in Central Georgia for sure.

SFT

[ColdFusion]

Shows it making landfall @ 90 hours, and then not moving much even @ 114hrs.

Spinning on top of Mobile, just on shore, for a full 24 hours.

That would be brutal.

Still there at 132 hours...That would be epic rainfall into the Southeast. Would kill the drought in Central Georgia for sure.

SFT

And I'd think significant beach erosion. To me, the stall is much more interesting than the westward shift.