ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[johngaltfla]

Here's what Dr. Jeff Masters posted in his latest blog update re: Isaac. Very well put:

Residents of South Florida, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Bahamas should not focus overly much of the exact track of the center of Isaac, because the storm's heaviest winds and rain will be spread out over a large area, and will not be focused near the core of the storm. Tropical storm-force winds currently extend outwards 185 miles to the right of Isaac's center, and will continue to extend outwards about this far as the storm passes by the Bahamas and South Florida. Heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches will be common along this swath. I recommend using the latest wind probability forecast from NHC to see your odds of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph or higher.

from here: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2202

And considering that most of the ground in Western Florida is severely over-saturated, rain might be the larger problem.

[SouthDadeFish]

Eyewall forming:

[ozonepete]

In case anyone thinks all Isaac has to do is get past Haiti, here's the topographic map for Cuba. Lots of mountains on the east end to get over...

[johngaltfla]

In case anyone thinks all Isaac has to do is get past Haiti, here's the topographic map for Cuba. Lots of mountains on the east end to get over...

Ozone, I honestly do not think that is the major concern. A lot of people thought Sir Charles would weaken and in less than a day it went from Cat 1 to Cat 4. The water is warm, conditions are favorable and once it is past Cuba, if it does not follow a path similar to the GFS, my fear is a rapid intensification phase.

[artist]

Hello everyone it's been a long time since i came here i"m in Santiago Dominican Republic and it's really dark right now it has been raining all day long.For some reason i feel like it's getting stronger by the hours i would like to know if there's going to be a lot of wind tonight in Santiago DR ??? btw i'm in the north part of the country thx

I'm going to bump your post in case someone can answer it for you.
Also, stay safe and know we have you all in our thoughts and prayers.

[JamesCaneTracker]

Eyewall forming:

http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/9623 ... pct37h.jpg

http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/1078 ... hw09li.jpg

Yeah last pass through the center Recon reported the eyewall... It's circular, open to the west, with a diameter of 16 miles

[cheezyWXguy]

Eyewall forming:

http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/9623 ... pct37h.jpg

http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/1078 ... hw09li.jpg

Yeah last pass through the center Recon reported the eyewall... It's circular, open to the west, with a diameter of 16 miles

if this storm had deeper convection with its current structure it would almost certainly be a hurricane right now.

[x-y-no]

Hello everyone it's been a long time since i came here i"m in Santiago Dominican Republic and it's really dark right now it has been raining all day long.For some reason i feel like it's getting stronger by the hours i would like to know if there's going to be a lot of wind tonight in Santiago DR ??? btw i'm in the north part of the country thx

I'm going to bump your post in case someone can answer it for you.
Also, stay safe and know we have you all in our thoughts and prayers.

You can probably expect some tropical storm force winds. And quite a lot more rain. Flooding is a bigger threat than wind for the Dominican Republic, especially on the north side.

As always, please listen to your local and national government for official advisories.

[Macrocane]

Isaac is on of the weirdest tropical cyclones I've seen, the outflow and the structure scream "hurricane" but the convection is that of a struggling tropical storm, anyway even shallow convection can produce high amounts of rainfall in the mountainous areas of Hispaniola.

[HurricaneBelle]

Ozone, I honestly do not think that is the major concern. A lot of people thought Sir Charles would weaken and in less than a day it went from Cat 1 to Cat 4. The water is warm, conditions are favorable and once it is past Cuba, if it does not follow a path similar to the GFS, my fear is a rapid intensification phase.

Charley went over the narrow, flat part of Western Cuba, not the mountains of Eastern Cuba. No comparison.

[Hurricane Andrew]

The GIV plane is currently out, gathering data.

[JamesCaneTracker]

This time through the center Recon is no longer reporting a Eyewall!

[Hurricaneman]

This time through the center Recon is no longer reporting a Eyewall!

but is still strengthening, this will probably make landfall in 1 hr and be over the windward passage in 2 1\2 hrs

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

In case anyone thinks all Isaac has to do is get past Haiti, here's the topographic map for Cuba. Lots of mountains on the east end to get over...

Ozone, I honestly do not think that is the major concern. A lot of people thought Sir Charles would weaken and in less than a day it went from Cat 1 to Cat 4. The water is warm, conditions are favorable and once it is past Cuba, if it does not follow a path similar to the GFS, my fear is a rapid intensification phase.

LOL, who, pray tell, is Sir Charles? Hurricane Charley of 2004? If so, Charley went over a very small slice of the western part of Cuba which is completely flat and has a very negligible effect on hurricanes crossing it at that angle.

The water may be warm but the land isn't. Your key phrase is "once it is past Cuba". I actually also feel this TC could explode in intensity once it gets past Cuba as well. But all I said was that it's ability to intensify between now and when it gets past Cuba is very low but a lot of posters here are talking about Isaac intensifying tonight or tomorrow. It is done intensifying much at all until it gets back out over water, which isn't forecast to happen until Saturday night/Sunday morning.

[JamesCaneTracker]

This time through the center Recon is no longer reporting a Eyewall!

but is still strengthening, this will probably make landfall in 1 hr and be over the windward passage in 2 1\2 hrs

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on Recon fixes there is prob. another few hours until landfall... There is still over 100 miles before it reaches land based on the last Recon fix...

[ConvergenceZone]

Now that we pretty much know that it's going to probably remain a tropical storm due to its close proxmity to land, now the biggest question is, how much of the tropical storm will remain once it re-emerges off shore

[fci]

I just want to point out how the NHC DOES seem to know what it is doing.
I read page after page blasting the NHC in both this thread and the models thread for so wrong in the location of the center, it's too far north, they are so wrong, there is no turn coming, Jamaica is going to get hit and no one is telling them...........on and on.
So, what happens?
The turn they said was going to occur happens.
The strengthening they expected before Haiti landfall is happening.

So, let's not forget who the experts are out there, folks.
The NHC.

Think about that before you start blasting them in your posts.
They are the experts.
We are all just watching and guessing and at the end of the day, they are pretty darn good at what they do.

Oh, and though I am not a fan of JB, he will end up not being that far off after all is said and done. And I repeat, I am NOT a fan, but I respect him for the Pro Met that he is.......

Back to lurking and hopeful that JB isn't totally correct!!!

[johngaltfla]

Ozone, I honestly do not think that is the major concern. A lot of people thought Sir Charles would weaken and in less than a day it went from Cat 1 to Cat 4. The water is warm, conditions are favorable and once it is past Cuba, if it does not follow a path similar to the GFS, my fear is a rapid intensification phase.

Charley went over the narrow, flat part of Western Cuba, not the mountains of Eastern Cuba. No comparison.

I don't think it will be over the mountains long enough to matter. Weaken, yes, but once it hits the Florida Straits, it could explode. Just an opinion.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[stephen23]

Is that convection right over the center now?

[Hurricane Alexis]

Remember how ernesto from 2006 never intensified although it was forecast to? Isaac could also end up like that if the core gets shredded over interaction with cuba.