ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3461 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:25 pm

Joe b a few min ago on twitter..

@BigJoeBastardi I think that south Florida, from the Keys to Miami , gets at least hurricane gusts and very concerned that this is cat 2 or 3 when there.
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#3462 Postby KimmieLa » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:27 pm

NHC does an amazing job of forecasting. Waiting is a tough thing and landfall on the northern Gulf coast may not be truly determined until what we see remains after a trip over Cuba and what is going on north of the storm. But, if I was a betting woman, I would go with the NHC forecast Sunday morning. I do enjoy the differences of opinions and great info from the pro Mets. Great place to be when a storm is threatening.

I am not a met, and have no idea what I am talking about, so seek professional help.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3463 Postby ozonepete » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:28 pm

johngaltfla wrote: I don't think it will be over the mountains long enough to matter. Weaken, yes, but once it hits the Florida Straits, it could explode. Just an opinion.


Much of its circulation will be over mountainous land for the next 36 hours. That's not long enough to make a difference?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3464 Postby jinftl » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:31 pm

Staying within the current forecast cone, there is a range of tracks with vastly different amounts of land interaction. The top red line (drawn by me, not an official forecast, just an example) shows a track that would show minimal time over land and be very dangerous (potentially) for the Keys especially vs the bottom red line which shows a track riding the spine of Cuba and that could do Isaac in.

Image
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#3465 Postby smw1981 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:32 pm

Does anyone know the NHC's error rate from 3 days out? I remember seeing something either last year or the year before that was in miles (and remember it being really, really low), but I can't find anything about it now!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3466 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:33 pm

ozonepete wrote:
johngaltfla wrote: I don't think it will be over the mountains long enough to matter. Weaken, yes, but once it hits the Florida Straits, it could explode. Just an opinion.


Much of its circulation will be over mountainous land for the next 36 hours. That's not long enough to make a difference?



I agree, and even the last NHC discussion mentioned that if it remains over land long enough, that it may only be able to strengthen to a tropical strorm in the Gulf...
On the other hand, if the track shifts just a little bit more to the right, it will put it over water which could mean a stronger hurricane....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3467 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:34 pm

Does recon support an eyewall? Plus, I watched again and TWC got it correct and closer to my red X about 25 miles away.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3468 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:36 pm

[quote="jinftl"]Staying within the current forecast cone, there is a range of tracks with vastly different amounts of land interaction. The top red line (drawn by me, not an official forecast, just an example) shows a track that would show minimal time over land and be very dangerous (potentially) for the Keys especially vs the bottom red line which shows a track riding the spine of Cuba and that could do Isaac in.

Great graphic Jinftl and that says it all...

Upper track means, potential strong hurricane,
lower track probably means, goodbye Isaac....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3469 Postby ozonepete » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:38 pm

The circulation envelope size and outflow are pretty extraordinary. Unless it goes straight up the Florida peninsula (not out of the question) it should really explode once it gets past Cuba.

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3470 Postby JamesCaneTracker » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:43 pm

Pressure is down another MB to 993mb... Based on the recon fixes and the speed the NHC is saying Isaac is going there is still about another 5 hours before landfall. It also looks like the Center is still wobbling around inside a larger Circulation.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3471 Postby sfwx » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:44 pm

SFLcane wrote:Joe b a few min ago on twitter..

@BigJoeBastardi I think that south Florida, from the Keys to Miami , gets at least hurricane gusts and very concerned that this is cat 2 or 3 when there.


I heard him on the radio and he said he feels the storm will most likely go up the spine of Florida somewhere between the coasts.

( Not my forecast, it was his. )

Eric
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3472 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:46 pm

If Isaac has an eye, 60kts at 8, does recon support 60kts?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3473 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:47 pm

[code][/code]
HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:If Isaac has an eye, 60kts at 8, does recon support 60kts?

Nope but pressure at 992!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3474 Postby jinftl » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:49 pm

Not good for Haiti...slowing down a bit and pressure down 2mb

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...ISAAC TEMPORARILY SLOWS DOWN...BUT STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN HAITI TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 72.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3475 Postby tgenius » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:50 pm

All I know is a huge feeder band is about to smack Miami with some serious rain!!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3476 Postby MHurricanes » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:50 pm

SFLcane wrote:Joe b a few min ago on twitter..

@BigJoeBastardi I think that south Florida, from the Keys to Miami , gets at least hurricane gusts and very concerned that this is cat 2 or 3 when there.


Excellent Isaac video update from Joe Bastardi, posted on the Weatherbell.com front page. He's very worried about a CAT 2 or 3 storm approaching South Florida.

http://www.weatherbell.com/tropical-upd ... -25-4-15pm
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3477 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:51 pm

Stacy is on duty.. :D
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3478 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:51 pm

Overnight, my guess is convective bursts will give way to a hurricane at 5am.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3479 Postby mph101 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:51 pm

Macrocane wrote:Isaac is on of the weirdest tropical cyclones I've seen, the outflow and the structure scream "hurricane" but the convection is that of a struggling tropical storm, anyway even shallow convection can produce high amounts of rainfall in the mountainous areas of Hispaniola.


Agreed. Realizing it is in the eastern Caribbean and close to mountainous terrain with a lot of dry air around I still can't help and wonder about possible efforts to seed or impede the organization of the storm with man made efforts as are often shown on the local news of hurricane busting moisture blockers, like that jello stuff. I'm not big on conspiracy however it makes little sense unless you are State Farm, and Allstate or Citizens. The good and the bad. But this storm looks like it should have taken off. Several over the past several yrs are similar.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3480 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:54 pm

mph101 wrote:
Macrocane wrote:Isaac is on of the weirdest tropical cyclones I've seen, the outflow and the structure scream "hurricane" but the convection is that of a struggling tropical storm, anyway even shallow convection can produce high amounts of rainfall in the mountainous areas of Hispaniola.


Agreed. Realizing it is in the eastern Caribbean and close to mountainous terrain with a lot of dry air around I still can't help and wonder about possible efforts to seed or impede the organization of the storm with man made efforts as are often shown on the local news of hurricane busting moisture blockers, like that jello stuff. I'm not big on conspiracy however it makes little sense unless you are State Farm, and Allstate or Citizens. The good and the bad. But this storm looks like it should have taken off. Several over the past several yrs are similar.

The current trend seems to peak in the morning, wane at noon, and be at its worst in the evening.
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